2022, Small Chances, And Best Strategy

How To Maximise A Small Chance At Victory

One of the reasons I got Virginia wrong was I got the task of discerning signal from the dueling noise of Joe Biden’s approval rating and the Congressional Generic Ballot wrong, and wrong quite badly. Biden’s approval turned out to be the correct signal, as did the Virginia polls (of low quality as they were), and the generic ballot polls ended up looking hilariously, and disastrously, terrible, given the Democratic lead, and essentially status-quo-to-2020 numbers they were showing. In the month since, the Generic Ballot has moved some, but even then, good pollsters – namely Marist and YouGov – are still insisting Democrats are in a good spot. And, somehow, so are some of the state polls.

In recent weeks, we’ve seen polls out showing Warnock up 6% in Georgia, Beto O’Rourke up 1% in Texas, Katie Hobbs up 4% in Arizona, and a pair of polls showing Ron DeSantis only up 6% on Charlie Crist in Florida, none of which would be totemic swings from 2020 and the first three of which would be swings to Democrats from the Biden baseline. You think I’m cherrypicking? New Hampshire Republicans’ likely nominee released an internal yesterday showing him down 2 to Maggie Hassan, Cheri Beasley is only down 1 or 2 in North Carolina, Abrams was only down 3% against Kemp, and Patty Murray is only underrunning Biden by either 1% or 6% depending on the poll, because somehow Washington has had two polls released there in recent weeks.

If you believe these polls, the political environment is somewhere around a tie, probably – which is, basically, where the 538 average has the Generic Ballot these days. It’s not great news for Democrats, but if the alternative is an R+7 or whatever the Virginia and New Jersey results pointed to, it’s still pretty good. If it’s true, of course, which is the unsaid thing hanging over this conversation, and the question I don’t have the answer to. I have no idea what indicators these days are right, and it’s a good thing we have a lot more time to come, but it is notable that these indicators are going in different directions.

What’s also notable is that if one was predisposed to make the case for Democratic optimism, the case is actually fairly easy these days – it’s the fact that Democrats seem to be in good shape at a state level, and race by race they’re putting themselves in good spots. I get the case for optimism, but don’t buy it – but if you wanted me to say that the chances House Democrats win the majority again was closer to 20% than 10%, I’m not sure I’d fight you on it these days. But what this rash of not-bad news for Democrats is doing is reminding me that the biggest threat to Democratic chances isn’t thermostatic public opinion or whatever bullshit, it’s the stupidity of the Democratic Party and its allies.

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If Democrats lose the House, it won’t be because of Democratic incompetence in all likelihood, but there is a universe where Democrats manage to keep things close in 2022, and every effort should be made to maximize the chances that if that comes, Dems can actually win a majority, And right now, there’s no reason to think they will, with the clown car of decisions being made these days. Roe is up for grabs this week, and the best we get from Democrats is a lame DSCC tweet about the need to elect Democrats? Where is the President’s bold affirmation for a woman’s right to choose, or hell, just where the fuck Biden at all on the issue? Between Dobbs and Texas’ abortion law, the issue has been at the fore of public opinion, and the President has said and done exactly jack shit to hammer Republicans for it. This is our wedge, the one we can use to separate socially liberal, pro-choice Republicans from their party, and we’re not taking it, for reasons escaping notice.

Yesterday, Democrats and reporters who lean left were sharing the Tim Ryan floor speech, designed to promote his no hope campaign for statewide office, and it was another moment where the uselessness of the movement and the political party shown through. He can’t win a Trump +8 state in these conditions, guys, no matter how much you think Mandel sucks. It won’t happen, no way is it happening – and for what it’s worth, neither is Cheri Beasley in North Carolina, nor Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin. If it’s Fetterman, Dr. Oz is probably headed to the Senate from Pennsylvania too, and we all have to accept that the Senate map has moved away from these offensive targets to a damage limitation exercise. Hold the four, try for a 51st in Pennsylvania, and move the fuck on – and giving to Val Demings or Tim Ryan is an exercise in delusion. If we couldn’t win those states in 2020, with the wind at our back, there’s no way in hell we’re winning them in 2022, with it squarely in our face.

Will Democrats win the House in 2022? Probably not, let’s be very honest, and I have the Senate as a Lean Democratic institution – there’s no certainty they’ll hold that coming from this corner – but if they do, things will have to be very different than they’ve been in the first year of the administration. The political operation of the Democratic Party needs to radically change, and if they’re looking for one place to start, it’s with the idiocy of so many to refuse to play the one hand we have properly. We need to convert socially liberal, white, educated Republicans, and if we do this, we will win the House and cruise in the Senate. That’s it, and every day, every tweet, every argument that does not put a wedge between the 27% of pro-choice Americans and the Republican Party is a day wasted. If Democrats spend the next 11 months on flights of fancy, they will get smashed at the polls, but if Democrats get their heads out of their asses, a midterm loss might happen anyways, but they’ll have given themselves the best chance to break history’s curse.