BC: Merger's Conservative Reality

Would A Merger Kill Eby's Government?

If you’re the Conservatives why would you do it?

Opposition leader and soon to be fired BC FC Manager Kevin Falcon held a presser today, at which he raised the prospect of a merger between his party and the surging BC Conservatives. Abacus today had the Cons at 34% and BC United at 13%, so this would less be a merger than an internal civil war where the incumbents lose power.

The consensus is that this merger would be good for the right, and it could be. David Eby’s NDP is at 40% in Abacus and the mid-30s in two recent IVR polls, so in theory, if you tally the two nominally right of centre parties together, there’s an anti-Eby majority, right? Well, not so fast.

Thanks to David Coletto and the team at Abacus Data, I have some data that calls into question whether this merger is a good idea  And if I’m the BC Conservatives, my response to a merger would be simple – no.

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Of the 13% of BC who say they’ll vote for BC United in this poll, 49% say that they’d vote for the Federal Conservatives if a federal election was tomorrow, against 46% who would vote for the Federal Liberals. In other words, far from BC United being a source for conservatives who just don’t realize they’re Conservatives yet, they’re a group that’s split.

While federal vote intention isn’t a perfect guide, this kind of split does suggest that the gains from merger would be minimal. With the BC United vote split essentially down the middle on who they like federally, the assumption that a merger would see the BC United vote follow on masse is weak, to say the least.

We know from next door Alberta that a good portion of the old PC Party abandoned the UCP in 2019, giving the Alberta Party just over 9% of the vote. While at that election the UCP landslide meant it was irrelevant, it was a notable protest vote from the old PC wing that showed that their votes weren’t to be taken for granted by the new, United Conservatives. In 2023, those voters broke overwhelmingly NDP, helping to flip 14 seats Blue to Orange.

In BC’s current context, BC United serves as a deterrent of a conservative government only in theory. In reality, the idea that the BC Cons would get a meaningful flow of preferences from a merger is nonsensical, and with BC United’s vote focused on the Lower Mainland (17%, compared to 5% on Island and 11% in the rest of the province), it’s not at all clear a merger is worth it. It’s arguable, and frankly I’d argue it, that it’s more valuable to have BC United stealing votes in Vancouver from the NDP than it is to ensure the BCU vote collapses in (to pick a place at random) Kamloops or Peace River.

For the Conservatives, the benefit would be in BC United’s donor list and their bank accounts, but the value of money has taken a hit in recent months. BCU spent a ton in the first quarter to try and stop the bleeding and now they’re having to essentially beg for a merger from a position of weakness. I suspect the benefits of the cash would be bigger in the hands of a Rustad-led party, if only because Rustad and co. have a message that’s clearly closer to what BC wants to hear than BC United’s attempts at opposition without enthusiasm.

What does this mean for David Eby? In a sense, I’d probably prefer to run against a united right, as counterintuitive as it seems. A merger would give him an opportunity to consolidate the Federal NDP and Liberal votes together, but it would also reduce John Rustad. A merged United Conservative Party, presumably led by Rustad, would produce ammunition for the NDP, as Rustad would be allowing his party to be re-infiltrated by the exact same people he left BC United because he opposed. To then allow BC United to come back into his tent because he thinks it might be worth a few points in the polls would open up Rustad to much more potential damage. The populist right wins in part on its credibility and its authenticity, the notion that love them or loathe them they say what they think and not what’s popular. If Rustad leads a united party into the next election and stands beside Kevin Falcon, you might as well light all that credibility on fire.

The counter to all of this is that a campaign could convert some of those Federal Liberal/BC United supporters to oppose Eby, but here’s the thing – you can do that without a merger. The BC Cons have managed to break past 30% even without a merger, and at a time when Abacus – the first online poll to have them above 30% - sees them climbing, a merger would be a huge risk. The fact that 46% of BC United’s vote would support Trudeau even as his numbers are at the place they are suggests that these voters are fairly implacably opposed to populists. And given the bearhug Eby and Trudeau have been in in recent months, it’s likely that those voters will choose Eby over Rustad if made to choose.

It makes complete sense why BC United want a merger, because they will get wiped out in their current configuration. Maybe a couple of MLAs end up getting over the line on the backs of local factors, but as a movement they’re staring down the end of their careers. A merger, especially one that allowed the remaining MLAs who haven’t announced they’re retiring to serve as candidates of the merged party, would save a lot of incumbents’ jobs, and the staffers who stayed loyal to a sinking ship. I get the case for it from their side. From the other side, however, it’s a much harder case to make.

Given how much has happened in such a short time, I have no prediction on whether the two parties will merge. Given that Abacus shows 46% of BC United’s vote would vote for Trudeau federally, the case that a merger will end Eby’s government is weak. Whether Eby wins a full term for himself may depend on whether Rustad falls for the hype of a merger or not.

My profound thanks to David Coletto and Abacus Data for allowing me access to additional data from their poll. For the full results of their poll click here.