Bonnie Crombie And Needing To Demand More

Good Enough Isn’t Actually Enough

There were two snap elections called this year, called by the First Minister at a politically beneficial time, designed to give them the best chance of winning the election in contravention of the clear spirit of fixed election date laws in their jurisdictions.

In both cases, the party that came in second in votes gained votes and seats, but their leader lost their seats. Those leader losses came because of dedicated local campaigning and strong local campaigns, and both leaders who failed to win their seats currently face leadership reviews at their next party convention/AGM. Both leaders ran on the premise of beating the incumbents, both failed, and now both are asking for deference and another chance - a chance they or their allies said they wouldn’t need.

So why do many Liberals think Pierre Poilievre has to go but think Bonnie Crombie should stay?

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The argument for Bonnie Crombie is the same as for Skippy - both got airquotes “screwed” by events, including early elections, that they weren’t ready for, both had a “good loss” - gaining seats and votes! - and both think that the circumstances, namely Trump’s antagonism and the rise of that (previously mostly dormant outside of Olympics) Canadian patriotism, won’t be repeated next time and things will be different. It’s an almost eerie situation they find themselves in.

The fact that Poilievre blew a 25 point lead is an obvious distinguisher, but Poilievre gained more vote share (he gained 7.5%, compared to Crombie’s 6%), seats (25 to 5), and seat share, or seats adjusted for the fact that the House of Commons is nearly three times as big as the Ontario provincial parliament (7% of the House of Commons was gained by Poilievre, 4% by Crombie). He did better by the objective metrics than Crombie did, and only did worse if you set the bar at what the polls said. That’s a bar, but so are the promises you made.

In the leadership election of 2023, Bonnie Crombie said that she would lead the Liberals at the next election. That got watered down to 25 gains in the Star in December - and if you’re giving them the benefit of the doubt, I assume the bulk of the reporting was done before the tariff threats, though after Trump was elected - and then got watered down to 20 seats and Bonnie in the legislature on election night. They got 14, third place, and Bonnie’s still outside. She failed every test she set herself. Arguing that the fact she never got her polling into a truly competitive position is a good thing - in other words, giving her a benefit because she was always behind - is a weird way of saying she spent the entirety of 2024 twiddling her thumbs.

The bigger question is whether the Ontario Liberals are willing to accept good enough. Bonnie Crombie’s defence amounts to the idea that she did “good enough”, whatever that means to whoever she’s talking to. The reason I wanted Justin Trudeau out is that I refused to accept that what was happening was as good as we could do. It wasn’t, as Mark Carney showed. Ask anyone about Carney in December, ask them whether he could flip 9 seats in Quebec and win a minority government that came, what, 200 votes away from a majority, and they’d have looked at you like you had 4 heads. And that’s what happened, because there are opportunities abound if you’re willing to look for them.

I’m obviously supporting the New Leaf Liberals, because I am proud to support anybody who is willing to say in public what we all know in private. Nobody can defend the idea that Bonnie Crombie deserves a second chance with anything other than “she’s in the job now and change could be bad”, because the positive case for her is the positive case for Poilievre, but we don’t talk about that.

I don’t think anybody is confused about who, in my ideal world, would replace Crombie, but the dirty little secret is I thought Carney would be shit. I was wrong, comically wrong about Carney. This site’s archive is an archive of me searching for what I, in my fucking genius, believed would be a better candidate than Carney. The act of having a contest will strengthen the party because it will force us to seriously think about what Ontario Liberalism means. Maybe my preferred candidate wins that battle, maybe someone else does. But Bonnie Crombie was a much stronger candidate at the end of 2023 than at the beginning, and the idea that such a contest - which would also raise a ton of money for the party, through the tithe - would not sharpen whoever won is nonsensical.

At the end of the day the case for Crombie going is that we need to remain focused on doing what we want and need to do, which is forming government. We need to elevate our standards, not accept mediocrity and “good enough” that still leaves us 49 seats away from forming a Liberal majority government this province needs. Accepting less and hoping it’s good enough is taking a bigger gamble as rolling the dice on the prospects of something different.

We have internalized the idea that the status quo isn’t a risk, that the risks of stagnation somehow don’t count, and that all that matters is the risks of change. We blind ourselves to the downsides of continuity and the upsides of change in the name of stability. It’s a vicious circle that we know costs us. But it’s rare we get a chance to make the change before it does.

The Ontario Liberal AGM this September represents our best chance to demand more of our party. It is our opportunity to say that the bare minimum is not, in fact, good enough. I am ambitious enough for the OLP that I won’t accept anything less than what Ontarians need, which is a Liberal government.

And if you are willing to accept less, look inside yourself.