Bring On A "Normal" Republican
The GOP's Best Shot In '24? Lean In On Trumpism
I don't usually engage in Presidential speculation years out - there are too many questions left open ended, and if you would have asked me in November 2012 who would be the next GOP nominee, I'd have said Santorum, and about a year later I was saying Cruz. I thought Kamala Harris was a serious contender to head the Democratic ticket in 2020 for much of the Trump term, and always assumed that Biden couldn't get a majority himself in the primary.
That all said, there is one form of Presidential speculation I will engage with - who the parties should nominate, if their goal is just to win, and to me the answer is simple. Assuming it is not President Trump again, either because of a Senate conviction (and subsequent vote to bar him from further office), criminal convictions, or just, you know, the fact he's old as hell, the GOP should run Josh Hawley in 2024.
No, this isn't a bit.
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It's less about Hawley as a singularity than about his archetype of politician - the GOP have done well by managing to jack up rural, white, non-degree voters with a message (if not policy substance) of economic populism and nationalism. Those voters are not going to turn out for bland social conservatism and tax cuts for the top 20% of earners, so if you're the GOP, you have a choice. You can either try and fortify the Trump coalition, or you can try and keep some of those voters while winning back wealthy social liberals with degrees who voted for Romney and now don't vote for you.
The Marco Rubio candidacy - which, we all know it's coming, guys, let's not pretend otherwise - will be an implicit call for the latter strategy. He will tout his ability to outrun Trump in suburban Florida as a model that can be replicated nationally, while pitching himself as tough on China to try and thread the needle between Trumpian politics and a more moderate alternative. He would be the candidate for both having cake and eating it.
The Hawley candidacy is a bet on the former strategy, doubling down on rural turnout and kindly telling the suburbs to piss off (if not in so many words). It is a strategy that requires low propensity Blacks and Hispanics to turn right, but 2020 suggests that that isn't a terrible bet. It is also a lower ceiling strategy, because in theory a Rubio-style coalition could win you back gains in Gwinnett while also getting you big leads in rural white areas, whereas you're conceding the Gwinnett half of that equation with a Hawley candidacy.
The problem the GOP faces, though, is that those two coalitions aren't equally likely to come through. The Rubio coalition is what a lot of people are penciling in for 2022, too - but it's just not true. I just wrote 2000 words about the midterms for Political Salad, so I'll spare those thoughts again, but I'll merely say here, free from the constraints on my language - if you think 2022 could be a R+9 as a reasonable proposition worth discussing in equal breath of a D leaning year, you're fucking crazy. That said, the kinds of Rakich-esque predictions are built on a foundation of a Rubio-esque path - some suburban reversion and some Trump voters turning out still. It won't happen.
The reason Democrats should want a Rubio (or a Kasich, or any corporate conservative) is that they lose at both ends. They're going to fail to turn out rural whites in western North Carolina or western Wisconsin, they won't activate that deep red pool of voters that made Pennsylvania close in 2020, and they won't get the low propensity Hispanics across Texas to come out for the GOP again. I'm not sure Hawley does get them out, either, but at least he gives them a shot. But the Rubio path involves telling themselves a lie - that it was Trump, and not global fucking trends, that caused the suburban shift.
Tell yourself that lie enough times, and you get the appeal of a pseudo-moderate. Claw back the suburbs, grab the rurals, and you win Georgia again. These voters, after all, are your kind of voter - they're the voters that most Republican politicians know very well. Affluent, charitable, reasonable - these are the people that politicians value, because they're who they see when they pop in to community events. It's the charity gala circuit, where politicians go to lend their names to worthwhile causes and get a free dinner out of it. They sit at tables with lawyers and bankers and partners at Deloitte and KPMG, and they all used to be Republicans. Now, many of those same charity dinners - far from the breeze they used to be - are harder, because those people are now Democrats, and the GOP would like to wind the clock back. The problem is, they can't. Run Rubio, and you'll lose every Biden state, North Carolina, and probably Texas too. Hawley at least gives you a shot at winning back the Upper Midwest.
Every Democrat should be dreaming of getting to run against Marco in 2024. I just hope we get lucky enough, just once.