Byelection Recap: Chicoutimi, Carney, And Conservative Uselessness

On Byelection Night And Poilievre’s Pointlessness

“Question still stands. Is he really good at this or is everyone else stupid?”

I have complicated feelings these days about the Carney government. I think they’re mostly good, sometimes annoying because I disagree with their ideological decisions, sometimes angering because they fuck up easy comms policy, but mostly good. I like Carney, and fundamentally he’s doing what he promised Canadians - minding the country well while trying to navigate a crisis not of our own making. It’s not easy and I have a lot of respect for him.

But as a politician, it’s a very funny question of whether his success is the result of his genius or others’ idiocy, and tonight’s byelections don’t really do anything to answer the question one of my American friends asked me tonight. Because in some ways, tonight is a coup for Carney - the Chicoutimi Gambit paid off, with a decisive Liberal win in a seat where they gave the MP a Senate seat to open the seat up. But man, is it impressive beating this clusterfuck of an Opposition?

Let’s start with the NDP, mostly because I don’t care: it’s a good result for them in Beaches, slightly above what I expected for them in July, but the takes are getting slightly crazy. They still lost by 30% and they were buoyed by the Liberals losing one of the biggest personal votes in Parliament. If they think the loss of Guilbeault’s personal vote will be anywhere near as sizable as the loss of Nate’s, they will be in for a rude awakening. Also, losing to the Greens in North Van ain’t great.

The Bloc are objectively a massive loser - this is further evidence that the Liberals have replaced the Bloc as the party of Standing For Quebec, insofar as the Liberals are seen as doing a sufficiently good job to not need the Bloc to defend their interests. It’s also worth pointing out that the PQ are at 29% in both Pallas and Leger post-trade deal falling apart, further proof that outside of a core base nobody in Quebec actually wants to rock the boat. (Quebec politics column coming every Friday in writ!)

But the real story is once again the Conservatives. Three years ago I wrote a column on a byelection night saying that the Conservatives need to fire Jenni Byrne if they want to win the election. Two years ago Byrne wanted the Liberals to win St. Paul’s so that the Liberals wouldn’t be smart enough to notice they need to ditch Trudeau. Now, two years later, we’re back in a world where the Conservatives are once again miserable on a Byelection night, and Jenni is no longer at the scene of the crime. So at some point I have to ask: when is anyone going to put Poilievre out of his fucking misery?

..

I have no animus left for Pierre Poilievre. Sunday night saw Novak Djokovic lose at the US Open, and while I can’t deny the talent, he was never my flavour of tennis star. But even in my nostalgic Federer adoration, it was hard to watch Novak struggle, and it was harder in some ways because he was never my guy.

Poilievre is a spineless piece of shit, sure, but it’s also completely insane that I seem to have more compassion for the man than any Conservatives. Dan Arnold tweeted tonight that Poilievre has 6 of the worst 8 Byelection drops in vote share of the post-Harper Conservatives, and while it’s shocking, it’s also somehow not anymore. For something to be shocking there has to be a reason to be shocked, and frankly expecting the CPC to be competent right now is just unreasonable.

I feel bad on some level for Poilievre because I actually do believe in the idea that good governance requires good opposition. I don’t think this current state of affairs is good for Canada. I think it’s better than the alternative of a Poilievre government, sure, but a government with a big lead and better Byelection results than those polls (once properly adjusted for the loss of NES’ personal vote) and without anybody making a clear or incisive argument against it isn’t good for anybody.

This government is not perfect by any means, but it’s not a good thing that this website does more effective criticism of Carney than the Conservatives or the NDP. It’s a failure of both sides that Carney skates on their issues and is able to move on. Nobody takes either Poilievre or Lewis seriously. Nobody cares what they have to say. Nobody is waiting on the wise words of the opposition leader to decide whether Carney made the right decision or not on tariffs. He’s a joke, and Avi isn’t much different. Ford and Wab and Frechette form not so much the Opposition but the group Canadians want the opinions of. At a time of national crisis, the actual Opposition is as relevant as Brady Tkachuk’s geography skills are sharp.

The plain reality is this country deserves a lot better than a Conservative Party led by a leader who has given up. Every policy announcement is just tax cuts rebranded, every initiative a crap redoubling of previous errors, and every one is a waste of everybody’s fucking time. It’s unacceptable for a major party to be led by someone so manifestly unfit to the office he aspires to hold. Poilievre needs to go, if only so this country won’t waste away waiting for a coherent answer to a real problem.

But I keep coming back to the question my American brother asked me tonight. Is Carney good at this or is he just the only competent bastard in a sea of idiocy? I don’t know. There’s some of both in it, and Carney has better instincts than I, and many others, expected. But better is not explicitly good, and I can’t tell if his instincts are good or he’s just floating on terrible opposition. I think they’re good - the McDavid jokes at the 2025 Cabinet retreat and the Sandinista quip on Nardwuar imply that he does have the skills to be human, at the least - but as a political analyst I’d like to see him against anything resembling real opposition.

Then again, the Liberals just won Chicoutimi by nearly 20%, so maybe I should just shut up and be thrilled.