Cabinet's Necessary Shuffles

5 Ideas For Shuffling The Cabinet

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Randy Boissonnault’s slow moving cascade of bullshit has finally hit the fan, with the Albertan stepping away from Cabinet in a joint decision of the PM and Boissonnault. Randy’s never been a particularly great Minister - a defender of employers’ rights to cheap labour who took a needless cheap shot at Mike Moffatt at the most recent Cabinet retreat - and his absence from Cabinet will not be missed. But, this is probably the beginning of the official #ShuffleWatch.

All of official Ottawa have been waiting for the Cabinet Shuffle this government needs since the quad of retirements last month. (For what it’s worth, I’m hearing initial rumours of the end of next week, but that is both unconfirmed and subject to change.) The government needs this shuffle badly, both because of the need to not have 4 lame duck Ministers running out the bad end of a government, but also because they need to show they’re listening. The 2023 Shuffle was a considerable mixed bag, elevating Sean Fraser to the Housing front in a needed move but also putting a bleeding heart liberal at Immigration. It’s time for new blood, but I’m also not going to swing for the fences. 

Nobody I’m talking to is suggesting that the Freeland firing I’ve been begging for is happening, and it’s more arguable that she is needed in a Trump-led America than a Harris one, so I’m not going to repeat myself. But here are some Cabinet Shuffle markers for the government, if they’re truly serious about trying to save their government.

Get A New Environment Minister

It is clear at this point that Guilbeault cannot sell the government’s climate agenda. He is unable to speak English well enough to be a salesman for this government, which means every time he’s clipped in the English media it’s when he’s putting his foot in his mouth.

The thing about this government is that they’ve lost the war on carbon pricing, yes, but they still have an argument on the broader environmental issue. The Ford government is refusing to upzone, talking about ripping up existing bike lanes, and generally locking in sprawl and car dependency. Having an Environment Minister who can attack Ford, make the case with Sean Fraser for transit oriented communities, upzoning, and lower emissions will help the government a lot. With transit projects coming online in lots of places there’s every opportunity for an Environment Minister to move the climate question from one solely of costs to one of opportunities.

It’ll be especially valuable to have a competent orator at the helm as Trump raises questions about the US’ green energy investments from the Inflation Reduction Act. Having someone who can pitch global tech companies that were planning on US investments through the IRA to come to Canada will be key. Oh, and if/when there’s another insane weather event, having a Minister who can point out that the Once In 500 Year Hurricane/wildfires/flood/whatever happening for the 5th time in 15 years costs the Canadian taxpayers a shitton, and the cost of reducing emissions is nothing compared to the costs we will pay if we do nothing.

Suggestion: Dom LeBlanc (I’d say Nate Erskine-Smith but Nate’s leaving at the next election and I don’t want Nate to tie himself to this government than he needs to before he runs to replace Crombie in Ontario eventually.)

Move Miller From Immigration

Marc Miller is very clearly uncomfortable with being an immigration restrictionist. He’s enacting a policy suite that is very restrictionist, especially compared to the Sean Fraser fuckups, but he isn’t a good sales person for the portfolio. He’s clearly uncomfortable selling the idea that immigration should be cut and we should be a net exporter of people for a few years. He’s not a good salesman.

At this point Miller has done the work to actually lower immigration levels. Now we need a Minister to sell that these cuts are a good idea and that the government is responding responsibly to the needs of the country. Miller’s not that guy.

If I were running this government he’d be out, but this is still government by wedding party, so a job swap with Jenna Sudds makes a lot of sense. Miller can take a lower profile job focused mostly on selling the kind of bleeding heart accomplishments he actually likes, he’s worked with the provinces and this role keeps him in a negotiatory position (child care, food program, etc). Sudds, meanwhile, is a good communicator whose attacks on Conservatives for voting for the thinly veiled effort to give fetuses rights led the news cycle for a while. Putting her in a role where she can show the country that the government has listened and that they’re responsive is a great swap.

Unleash The Byelection Winners

Anna Gainey, Charles Sousa, and Ben Carr have all won byelections in this Parliament. Between those three and Yasir Naqvi, who replaced Catherine McKenna in 2021, these are four serious people who don’t have Cabinet jobs right now. Sousa and Naqvi were Ontario Cabinet Ministers, Gainey is a heavy hitter in Quebec, and Ben Carr is probably the jewel of the Manitoba delegation. All four deserve jobs.

Yasir would do well at Transport - his time as Ontario AG suits him well, and it would allow him to attack Ford robustly. There’s a Carr to Energy-Duclos to Public Safety-LeBlanc to Environment triad of moves that scratches my brain, and would serve all of them well. Give Gainey Heritage, move St. Onge to Revenue, and you’ve got a decent Cabinet.

Create A Minister For US-Canada Relations

You can give this a less obvious title but I want a Minieter that reports to both Foreign Affairs and Finance that can shore up this government’s Trump problem from someone who was there the first time. Charles Sousa was Finance Minister for the first 17 months of the Trump admin, and he has worked closely with Trade and then Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland to advance Ontario’s interests with the Europeans and then Americans. The two of them worked well together from all indications, and Sousa would be able to take a lot of high level meetings and do a lot of the high level thinking on the American question that will enable Freeland to tee up an Election budget for 2025 and focus on domestic issues.

Is this kind of amorphous and unfocused? Sure. Is it kind of a make work job? Absolutely. It’s also a more valuable way of using Sousa than giving him Southern Ontario’s Economic Development Agency or Sport. 

Move Mark Holland

Holland is a longtime Liberal loyalist and while I never got his appeal, he clearly has some to the PMO. So, instead of suggesting firing him, let’s move him to Public Services and Procurement and put a better communicator who can put the provinces on the back foot on Health in his place.

Jonathon Wilkinson has always been a solid performer for this government, but his shunting to Energy is a waste. This government doesn’t let the Energy Minister do enough, given the tight rope they walk wanting to keep environmentalists happy by not shouting about their accomplishments (like, buying and getting a pipeline to tidewater). So let’s move Wilkinson from a dead end politically and get him into a department where he can thrive.

The provinces are absolutely wasting their health care budgets, between the introduction of private clinics to costly delays in construction on needed capacity. Wilkinson has more credibility in Alberta than most Ministers, which does matter in a provincial heavy portfolio. But most of all he’s much better on TV and in the House than Mark Holland and I trust him to survive 9 minutes with Cochrane after announcing to the House that Canada is introducing a national effort to reduce wait times or whatever than I would Holland.

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I oscillate often on how much a Cabinet Shuffle can even matter. It’s possible, and maybe even likely, that this is the textbook definition of shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. But it’s a card the Government has to play at a time when it has few of them left. Even in a situation where there’s little chance of victory, you need to maximize your chances. And that’s what a cabinet shuffle is - a chance to increase your chances of clawing back. Will it save the government? No. Can it, done properly, help? Yes. These are five plausible ideas that would help this government. I hope they take them.