Crombie's Greenbelt Opportunity

On RCMP Interviews

With the announcement on Friday that current and former aides in Doug Ford’s government are being interviewed by the RCMP in relation to the Greenbelt Scandal, the only thing that has knocked Doug Ford off 40% in the polls is back in the news. It’d be better if the Star story hadn’t come out on a Friday, but if this story can sustain itself into Monday, there is a huge opportunity for the Opposition Parties in Ontario.

With all the disrespect in the world intended here, I have given up on the Ontario NDP being a useful force. They have been nothing short of pathetic this year, utterly failing to present any form of alternative to Ford and refusing to justify their own existence. There’s a reason they’re polling below 20% now. So it falls to the Ontario Liberals if we want Ford to not just walk into Queen’s Park with a third majority. Lord knows I’ve not been a big fan of the Crombie leadership so far, but they are the vehicle through which progressive change can be achieved in this province. And this, this is an opportunity. But, (say it with me now), not for the reasons you might think.

The Liberals need to use the Greenbelt scandal, and the fact that in the news desert that is August this story will get more attention than it would in October, to reintroduce themselves, their leader, and show they’re not the party of the old days. The Liberals need to use this opportunity to come out swinging, and put some distance between the corruption of McGuinty and Wynne and the new Ontario Liberals.

They need to come out for a standing Independent Commission Against Corruption immediately.

…

Last Friday I broke out the (hopefully improved) Ontario model, which has the PCs continuing in majority government and the Liberals failing to break 20 seats. The Crombie strategy this year, such as anything can be described as such, has failed. The Milton byelection was a failure, a missed opportunity to get another Liberal back into the Legislature. Whatever your thoughts on the leadership race, this has not worked.

Opposing the government at every turn and focusing on being the opposition hasn’t worked either. The NDP’s policy of having exactly zero policy (sorry, 0 policy except trucks driving free on the 407) and focusing everything on attacking Ford isn’t working. Since the 2018 high point, the NDP have bled 14%. Their constant focus on Ford Bad has nearly killed the party, and they’re projected to halve the Parliamentary Party from that 2018 high point. Voters seem to get that Doug Ford is corrupt. They don’t seem to care. So, if you’re the Liberals, you need to take a new tack.

The virtue of an ICAC - first created in Hong Kong, made more well known in New South Wales - is twofold. The first virtue that it would be impossible to argue against - who could ever oppose more transparency and less corruption? - but the second is that it is a vehicle through which we can solve a lot of our other problems.

On August 1st, the City of Toronto and Government of Canada announced they would be doubling the length of the West Toronto Railpath trail. It’s costing $150M. So, I’m sure you’re thinking it’s going to be some super long trail, right, at that cost? Nope - it’s $150M for 2.1KM. $75000 per KM. How? Nobody knows, but there’s no way of checking. An ICAC that is given the scope to investigate all provincial and municipal funding, including projects like this, would be a good way of being able to take these sorts of outrages and channel them into a coherent message.

Doug Ford is spending more money than ever before for less results. He is spending more than ever while schools crumble, hospital and doctor wait lists grow, and our colleges look on the verge of bankruptcy. If we had some way of systemically investigating spending decisions, we’d be able to make sure we’re getting value for dollar - and possibly find money to pay nurses and teachers more by cutting genuine waste and inefficiency. Hell, you could even run the fucking Boozedoggle language through wanting an ICAC, to keep everyone’s favourite issue alive.

But most of all, the virtue of proposing an ICAC next week will be that Bonnie Crombie might actually be on the front foot. Her leadership has had one moment where she was genuinely leading, and it was when she announced her plan for four units as of right. Since then, it has been reactive, complaining about this or that Ford policy or being caught flat footed by whether or not she will undo some Ford decision. The party hasn’t been able to go on TV to hit back at the barrage of ads that defined Crombie as high tax and a Trudeau lackey.

The crisis for Ontario progressives is that as indifferent as the population is about Doug Ford, they’re not so desperate to see the back of him that they will just eagerly toss in whatever Tom, Dick, or Harry into the Premier’s job. That was a mistake that many, myself very much included, made going into 2022. The solution is for the Liberals to take this opportunity to lead. Today, Crombie put out a statement. Monday, she has to come out and lead. She needs to reframe this election from a referendum on Ford and she needs to start articulating a message about what Ontario Liberalism can achieve. The skeleton key to that is turning Ford’s corruption into an argument for your value set.

“We want to spend more money on teachers, nurses, schools, and hospitals, and we’ll find the money by stopping the Ford gravy train” is a much better argument than “Ford’s spending more and getting less.” We need to lead with our values, and that includes not letting ourselves get ripped off. By massively strengthening the regime around anti-corruption we can make it so that everyone walks around a little more scared that bad outcomes will actually be punished. It’s a way to articulate a Liberal set of values that can unite the staunchest of Crombie-ites and the most stubborn of Nate-ians. Attack corruption, investigate spiraling cost overruns, overhaul planning and land use regulations that make it so fucking expensive to build things we need, and announce all of it under the guise of “responding” to the RCMP news.

This is a Godsend, but if all we do is have Bonnie and Adil do another press conference where they say Doug Ford is bad and building on the Greenbelt is bad we might as well all just give up and move to Minnesota. There’s an opportunity. For the love of God don’t fuck this up.