Crombie's Pallas Intrigue

On The Polls And Ideas

Will the Ontario Liberals’ rightward turn work?

Pallas had an Ontario poll out today, a 3% PCPO lead that has the Liberals at 32%. It is objectively a good poll for Bonnie Crombie, whose leadership campaign and subsequent tenure has been a object of scorn in these pages. I don’t think this polls says much of anything about 2026 – the guy who spent 6 months arguing that Federal Liberal polling declines weren’t necessarily terminal can’t exactly make an argument Ford can’t come back in good faith. But it is a good poll for Crombie (and a very bad one for Marit Stiles, but I’ll write about that later this week).

Pallas were the first pollster to show the PQ in front in Quebec, a finding that has since been replicated, so their work deserves to cause even the most cynical of Crombie haters some pause. That said, there’s no guarantee this polling will continue even if it’s a reflection of current reality, so I’m going to lay out a few ideas that might help the OLP avoid the fate that 2018 and 2022 condemned them to.

None of this is just “become more left wing”, because as much as that’s my ideological preference, it’s also a hard genre of piece to write without just sounding like a sore loser. If you want that, Hunter Knifton already did a better job of laying out the case for a more stridently left wing future for the OLP in November.

There are three relatively low hanging fruit ways Crombie can put some meat on the bone that won’t be easily attacked as loony leftism or upset the delicate ideological dance she’s trying to pull off. If Crombie and co. want to win the next election, thinking about the ideas that can separate them from the NDP and inspire voters will be crucial.

Promise To Establish An Integrity Commission

As we’ve seen with the Greenbelt scandal, there’s little actual formal powers that any of the various officers of the Ontario legislature have. There’s no public process, there’s nothing except a report from either the Auditor General or the Integrity Commission that can lay out some damning facts. That the OPP didn’t even feel like they were able to investigate the Greenbelt matters is another bad sign. So, how do you strengthen accountability? An ICAC.

First established in Hong Kong and brought to the Anglosphere in New South Wales, an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) is both a good policy lever and a good political sales pitch. Instead of backroom investigations, this would be a way to get public hearings, with witnesses compelled to appear, under oath, about matters of corruption. It would be a much more transparent way of handling any sort of accusation of corruption or undue benefit.

It would also have the effect of shutting up any questions about her relationship to developers, which would remove a line of attack that the NDP will no doubt use. A party leader who is willing to strengthen integrity and anti-corruption laws will be seen as one that’s clean.

Establish Some Expert Commissions

This is cribbing from an idea Justin Trudeau had when he was the third party leader, but establish some expert advisory panels. Get some leading thinkers on health, housing, education, and climate together, have some meetings, and show that you’re taking the world of party rebuilding seriously. It’s not enough for you to be doing the work, you have to be seen to be doing it. In the way that Crombie understood that fact when it came to the donation goal, you have to be showy.

There’s no ends of people who will meet with the person that’s in second place in the polls to Doug Ford to try and fix the messes he’s created. The breadth of strong policy announcements that buttressed the leadership campaigns means there’s still intellectual heft willing to help the Liberals out provincially. Such advisory councils or expert commissions or whatever you want to call them can be a mechanism to both show that the Liberals aren’t run by ideologues like the other two parties, and allow smart people to work at combining the best ideas of the 5 leadership candidates’ platforms.

Make A Decision On A Carbon Price

I’m one of the few people on earth who actually thinks the carbon tax is a good idea, but Pierre Poilievre is knocking on the door of government and he’ll ax the tax as quickly as possible. A 2026 election where there is no Federal carbon tax is the modal outcome right now. Doug Ford will do everything in his powers to trip up the Liberals on that question, so let’s start having the debate right now.

Yes, I know I attacked her for not knowing whether she supports the Federal carbon tax, and I maintain that she should be able to answer that question off the cuff. But at the end of the day, the Liberal Party should start the debate on what their climate plan will be without a Federal carbon tax is crucial. If the answer is Ontario will introduce its own carbon price if Poilievre repeals the Federal one, then they need to decide that soon so they can start to fight for it on its merits. If the answer is there’s other ways to do emissions reductions without a consumer-facing tax, then the decision needs to be made now so we can disarm the Ford attack that she’s Carbon Tax Crombie or whatever nonsense they’re spouting.

These ideas won’t in and of themselves save the OLP, but they are relatively low hanging fruit ways of preparing for the next election. One of the problems that COVID presented the Del Duca leadership was it became the everything and only thing we talked about, which sucked all the air out of the balloon for the OLP to think about who they are and what they ought to do.

Ford winning a majority means the OLP have time. They start in a position they can work with. Now it’s time to convert potential support to votes. These ideas would go a long way to helping them win when the time comes.