Crombie's Questions Of Cash

On The OLP's "Completed" Goals

On December 3^rd, the morning after Bonnie Crombie became the leader of the OLP, she set an ambitious goal; $1M in donations by the end of the year. On December 21^st, a fundraising email went out to the party faithful claiming that they had raised $471k so far to the goal. And then on January 2^nd, the Liberals made a bold claim – that they had raised $1.2M.

According to Elections Ontario data, the Ontario Liberals raised $423k between December 1^st and December 28^th. If we think the Liberals shifted the clock back a bit – started the clock on the $1M goal at, say, American Thanksgiving – then the December 21^st internally claimed number and the Elections Ontario number are reconcilable. But neither of those are reconcilable with the claim that they raised $1.2M in new money in December.

I’m sure there were some donations at the clock to take advantage of tax credits, and the volume of fundraising at the end of the quarter would have raised something extra. Some of it might have come from riding associations getting their books in order and remitting money back to central HQ, I’m sure. But you don’t overcome $730k in 3 days plus some bookkeeping from the ridings.

Does this matter? Not really, in a narrow sense. The answer to where this money came from is pretty clear – the party took a tithe from the donations to the leadership campaigns. It was a brilliant decision to do so, because the huge amounts of money floating around in the leadership race helped pay off the party’s debt and build up the warchest for 2026. Making it 25% when recent CPC leaderships have had 10% tithes, as far as I remember, was a masterstroke. It’s also pretty obvious that this is how they’re making up such a substantial financial gap, with some or all of the campaigns tithes.

If someone from the OLP wants to dispute this, they’re free to, but at this point we’re faced with a wild claim that stretches all credulity. Either the OLP had their 3 best days in the history of the party – substantially better than the days after Bonnie won, by the way – or they’re cooking the books to get a good headline. It worked, given that Robert Benzie already dutifully gave it the writeup the OLP wanted in the Star. But it’s not exactly a great sign if the OLP want to run the next election on integrity and ethics.

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Does one fiscal quarter’s worth of disclosures really matter? No. Is it necessarily the case that the campaign tithes shouldn’t go towards the $1M goal, if that’s what got them over the line? No. But if the tithes were always going to go towards paying this off, then they shouldn’t have said that they weren’t even halfway there on December 21^st. And let’s be honest, Bonnie Crombie pissing me off is fundamentally not that big of a deal. I have long maintained that internal party democracy is not an interest of public interest, and that if the BC NDP would like to coronate David Eby in somewhat anti-democratic ways, they’re allowed. If Crombie wants the headline, and the airquotes “crime” is essentially bookkeeping, she can do whatever she wants.

But it’s a bad idea, which rather much is my department. The Ontario Liberals have a credibility gap, as much as they don’t want to admit it. Both because of the way that McGuinty and Wynne ran this province and because they elected a leader that has had to evolve on policy matters in the leadership race, there is a credibility gap. The fun thing about the Ontario Liberals, for a certain value of fun, is that Crombie has no allegiance to Dalton and Kathleen. In theory, she can do a lot with that freedom. The “love the policy ambition, would do the substance different/better/less corruptly” is an open lane for her in a way that Yasir – as a Minister in those governments – wouldn’t have been able to.

The problem is, the Liberals face what every party that’s recovering from a loss of government has to face, which is making anybody believe they’re different. Why was Trudeau’s first act as leader to start putting together these expert advisory panels? To combat his two weaknesses – a lack of intellectual heft, and to show renewal from past Liberal governments and leaders. Crombie’s already viewed as a Tory by many, so she doesn’t have a lot of room to tack away from the Wynne years on policy. Ethics, trust, and competence would be the way to go.

If I were advising Crombie, and I know I’m not and never will be, the advice would be simple; stop trying to match the government and the NDP on flash and hunker down. The ideas – from her campaign and the other three – form a genuine basis of renewal. In 2022 the Liberals had ideas – some good, some bad – but no overarching message about what a Liberal government would do. Making the fight for honest, transparent government a priority is key.

This shit isn’t important, but it’s a dumb thing to burn credibility on. It’s a flashy headline that nobody will remember next week anyways, and it’s something that could turn otherwise credulous journalists off taking your every word at face value (and make asshat columnists like me annoyed, not that it matters). You’ve now potentially stepped on whatever message you might want for this week as Doug Ford’s Comms Director is already attacking you for the inconsistencies, and for a story that nobody will remember or care about.

The Liberals need to stop trying to shortcut their way forward, because this brand of slightly deceptive headline grabbing politics doesn’t work. Broad renewal and a coherent vision that connects the various issues on the government’s docket – from housing and child care to Greenbelt corruption and the need for a standing anti-corruption commission – into a coherent vision for the future. Instead the OLP are focused on winning the news cycle with what is fundamentally fuzzy math, risking the new leader’s credibility for no reason. It doesn’t matter, in a way; but in another, it’s everything wrong with the party.

Cut it out, or enjoy irrelevance.