Dear NC Democrats: Please God Pick Cheri Beasley

On The Best Choice For North Carolina Democrats

To Whom It May Concern,

Hey, it's Evan, hope all's well. I know we're still feeling good about the 2020 cycle - I know Cal let us down, and Biden didn't win your 15 votes either, but hey, you guys have gained a seat in the apportionment - but we have to talk about 2022. And mostly about how you can't do the Jeff Jackson thing, guys.

Like, I get the Jackson thing in theory - a moderate, affable white dude should be able to get good results in the suburbs and could cobble together a Roy Cooper style coalition, I get the appeal. Except, Jeff Jackson underran Joe Biden by 7% in his State Senate district, has no discernible path to electability and an electability case that seems reliant on everyone believing that everyone else likes Jeff Jackson, which is either a weird self fulfilling prophecy or just a bunch of wish fulfillment nonsense. And I have no reason to doubt that Jackson is a personally affable and thoroughly decent man, but my God, we do not need him to be the nominee.

Cheri Beasley on the other hand? She is dynamic, engaging, and has the advantage of a track record of winning statewide already, and even more than that, the case for her electability is logical and reasonable. I'm not going to say she is a lock to meet her upside, but running a Black candidate as a means of boosting rural Black turnout and margins isn't just some theoretical proposition - it was crucial to us winning the Senate in January. Raphael Warnock managed to boost Democratic margins in the southwest of that state, and a similar effort needs to be made to bring out Black turnout in the rural northeast of the state, in addition to Charlotte and Raleigh, obviously.

Beasley is a candidate without easy flaw or problem - there's nothing to suggest that she will do worse than Biden with any constituency, and if she manages to boost Black turnout, then the race comes down to whether or not she can run even with Joe everywhere else. I have no reason to think she'll be a bad candidate for rural white areas, and even so, their relative power falls in 2022 as Trumpian, low propensity whites don't turn out. She'll obviously not be a bad candidate for the Black community, and so the question of her electability is really just a question about whether or not a Black candidate can win suburban whites, whether any of the people who argue against her (and for Jackson) ever actually acknowledge that that's what's happening.

So, is that fear grounded in facts? Not really, no. The pair of Black candidates who lost close races in 2018 - Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams - don't provide much, if any, clue on this question. Abrams lost, yes, but she still outran Hillary by nearly 4%, and on the same ballot paper, Lucy McBath won the Georgia 6th, famously lost a year and change earlier by (the very much not Black) Jon Ossoff. Gillum, by contrast, actually did pretty well in the white suburbs, and the reason he lost was not quite enough Democratic margins in south Florida, which is clearly a deeper problem than Gillum. Oh, and Warnock outran Ossoff in whites-only-until-the-90s Forsyth, so clearly Black Guy Scary worked wonderfully.

Beasley is a serious and credible candidate in a state where Democrats have only intermittently ran those. Kay Hagan ran and did very well in 2008, and even in defeat in 2014 she came much closer to victory than she had any right to, given the national environment and the popularity (or lack thereof) of Obama, but beyond that, Democratic Senate campaigns have been lacking. Here you have a chance to put this right, by nominating a Black woman of stature and grace, and serving to both further electoral self-interest and efforts to ensure the US Senate is not, again, without a Black woman in its deliberations and membership.

Yes, yes, candidate quality is hard to assess ahead of time, but this is as close to a slam dunk as you'll ever get. Cheri Beasley gives Democrats their best chance to flip a Senate seat they need desperately, and Jeff Jackson is just a guy that everyone thinks other people will vote for without anyone being able to tell me what actually makes him electable. The chances of a Democratic majority for the next Biden term - or a potential first Harris term - hinges in many ways on this seat. Waste this precious shot on Jeff Jackson, and we'll all regret having to deal with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (or whichever of his spineless, insurrection-defending lackeys replaces him) again.

Please God, North Carolina Democrats, pick Cheri Beasley. A country - and the broader world - needs you to.

All The Best,

Evan Scrimshaw (And Every Other Right Thinking Democrat)