Democrats, Break Up With Florida

Rubio, Ivanka, And A Toxic Relationship

Why does Florida have such an outsized place in the hearts and minds of Democrats? It's, obviously, partially a 2000 reflex, mad at the fact that the state gave Bush the Presidency that ended up so disastrous for so many, but even amongst those barely alive - or, not even yet conceived - Florida holds this significance. Yes, it is obviously a big state, but in 2016 Clinton lost because of the midwest, not because she lost Florida, and in 2018 the failures there didn't cost Democrats the Senate majority. And yet, failures there - as opposed to, say, North Carolina or Ohio - seem more seismic.

Miami Dade coming in so weakly Democratic is a moment that keeps getting referenced as the gut punch of election night, but in all honesty, Youngstown going red was probably the scarier proposition for the actual electoral chances of Joe Biden - although, I weirdly didn't panic too much about that, confident that Milwaukee and Detroit would carry us home. And yet, we remember Dade. The collective loves to discuss how flawed the Florida Democratic Party is, but somehow, the Ohio Democratic Party is just left alone, despite some truly pathetic results in the last decade. We have three legitimately flippable Senate seats up in 2022, but the seat I get asked the most about is Florida - a Likely R race so long as Marco Rubio is on a General Election ballot.

…

Is Rubio really that ironclad? Of course he is, because he will do really well in the south east of the state and he's managed to keep a moderate image intact through four years of Trump, somehow. He'll avoid much worse results than Trump in the suburbs - especially along the I-4 - and he'll keep up the margins in Dade and Broward needed. Likely R doesn't mean he'll win by a ton - but it is insanity to think Marco is particularly vulnerable in 2022. He isn't.

Now, is he vulnerable in a primary? That's a harder question. I actually think he's more vulnerable to an Ivanka primary than a Matt Gaetz one, because Gaetz would get destroyed worse than Florida Atlantic when they have to go into Gainesville every few years in football in South Florida, and while he would do well in the north of the state, I'm not sure there's enough voters there to save him. Ivanka could make enough inroads in the South - female candidates are generally decent performers in educated areas, and her husband's religion could be a boon with Jewish voters in a Republican primary. I think Marco would be the slight favourite in a primary against Ivanka, but not an overwhelming one.

Would a general election against Ivanka be winnable? Sure, but Democrats would be nominal underdogs, in my view. It's still Florida, a state that just voted 8% right of the nation at large, and it's a hugely expensive landscape which I'm not sure Democrats should even bother seriously contesting. On some level, just gimme Rubio - then, at least, nobody will think it's competitive and nobody will try to burn $200M on the state, instead giving to Fetterman or Pocan/Kind/whoever runs in Wisconsin, or to House candidates who need the money. But we all know that's not how this will work, which brings me back to my original question - why Florida?

In the run-up to November 3rd I routinely wrote that if Florida was called South Georgia, everyone would agree that Democrats were favoured to win the state. It was just the name Florida that was scaring people, and I still maintain I was correct about that. Unfortunately, the polls were shit so the doomposters turned out to be correct. But what I didn't realize until now is that Florida will seemingly always hold this totemic place in people's hearts for reasons I don't - or didn't, I should say, until today - really understand. It's a pain in the ass, but it's probably true that Texas goes blue again (for an important statewide office) before Florida does. Florida is running rightwards, while Texas is coming back to us.

I just remember the heartbreak that so many had about Florida, both on November 3rd and after. It was a gut punch for so many, a heartbreaking act of defiance against Biden, and for many others, against themselves. Florida hurt in a way Ohio, or Iowa, or North Carolina, or even Texas didn't. Florida was different, somehow. And then it all clicked for me.

"Only love can break your heart

Try to be sure right from the start

Yes, only love can break your heart

What if your world should fall apart"

Just before 8PM Eastern on November 3rd, it really felt like our world had fallen apart, and it was because Florida had broken our hearts, again. It was a nightmare for Democrats, a despondent reminder of a horrible night just under four years before. It broke our hearts because for some twisted reason, we still love this stupid, Republican leaning state that never does anything but string us along and hurt us in the end. The cocktease of a state still has our love for some reason, a group collectively lying to ourselves that this time it will be different, this time they've changed. And, if you believe that, it will break your heart again in November of 2022. Give up on Florida and be much happier - because yes, only love can break your heart.