Does A Doug Ford Win Help The Liberals In 2025?

Provincial Drag Et Al

One of the enduring statements of Canadian politics is the notion that Ontario elections trigger a backlash at the next Federal election, a fact based on the fact that there have been 8 years of unified party control in Ontario and Canada since the election of Lester Pearson in 1963. Because of that, there’s a sense from many (especially those outside Ontario) that Ontario should “take the bullet”, as it were, and elect Ford to stop Poilievre.

The problem is, their argument is one of those things that’s an honest lie, and fundamentally isn’t what it claims to be.

The History

In 1963, the federal Liberals took power, and would hold it for the next 21 years (with the exception of Joe Clark’s minority government). At the same time, the Ontario PCs were in the midst of the Big Blue Machine, which led to them having power for 43 straight years. Bill Davis retired in 1985, just after the election of Brian Mulroney. With Davis gone, the PCs lost power, finally, and the Liberals came into office in Ontario just as they had left office federally.

Once that happened, Mulroney lasted 9 years in office, before Kim Campbell lost to the Liberals in 1993, whereas Bob Rae lost after 10 years of left wing control in 1995. Mike Harris lasted eight years, giving three years of unified control from 2003 to 2006, before Stephen Harper beat Paul Martin. Wynne lost in 2018 after three years of unified control, and now we’re here.

Is it true to say that unified control is the exception to the rule, based on that history? Sure. Is it also true that it means fucking anything? No, and this is where people are screwing this up.

What happened was two contradictory dynasties ran into succession problems around the same time – Trudeau and Davis both handed over to fundamentally less compelling successors – and then the tracks have been running parallel, but opposite, for a while.

Did Ontario Results Cause A Change In Government In Ottawa?

No.

In 2004 and 2015, federal Liberals have won elections after the election of a provincial Liberal government. Yes, some Liberals blamed McGuinty for losses in Ontario in 2004, but in reality, the reason the Liberals lost so much ground in that election wasn’t losses in Ontario as much as losses in Quebec, where Martin lost 15 seats. Yes, the Liberals lost 25 seats in Ontario, but those 25 seats were the price of doing business the second the PCs and Canadian Alliance merged. Losing rural seats on vote splits isn’t the fault of provincial drag.

In 2015, Trudeau draped himself in the warm glow of Kathleen Wynne, whose 2014 sparked a round of “Good News For Harper” stories when it happened, on this same basis. It was dumb then, and it’s dumb now.

Also, remember, Ontario voted for Martin over Harper in 2006 – it was Martin getting killed in the West and Quebec that cost him a plurality of seats. Martin got 13 seats in La Belle Province, and Trudeau got 35 last time. Give Martin those 22, and 2006 is a functional tie in seats.

Isn’t 2025 When The Federal Liberals Will Lose?

This is the actual argument for why 2025 will see a Conservative government – it’s been a decade, and Canadians tend to toss their governments after a decade. It’s the argument a lot of Conservatives used to argue Tim Hudak would beat Kathleen Wynne, and that BC Dippers used (in addition to the polls) in BC 2013. Provincial drag isn’t really a thing as much as it’s just a matter of timing – usually governments get either two majority terms or 3 terms if there’s a minority involved. The thing is, those rules are sliding more and more, mostly as partisanship firms up and polarization increases.

The argument against provincial drag is simple – the number of swing voters between left and right has never been lower. I don’t mean tactical, Anybody But Conservative voters, or PPC-CPC switchers, but the old fashioned, swing, moderates in the middle. The kinds of people who yearn for divided government as a good unto itself are no longer that plentiful, in large part because they have either aligned themselves with the right – mostly those with active religious affiliations and who align with the Church on abortion and gay marriage – or the left, namely those who can’t stand being in the same party as Brad Trost or Sam Oosterhoff.

If the middle is shrinking, and the right is retrenching itself amongst the anti-mandates right, then there’s an opening for the Liberals in a country that is just too urban and suburban for the Tories to pull a Trump 2016 and win out of exurbs and rural areas.

None of this is particularly interesting, and it’s certainly not new, but the idea that Ford winning guarantees a CPC loss in 2025 is absurdist nonsense. It would be no different as arguing that Bob Rae’s 1990 victory killed the chances of a Liberal win federally in 1993, which would have been absurd to say then and was clearly proven untrue.

This all is true regardless of what you think happens in the 2025 election, by the way. I don’t care if you’re reading this calling me a fucking libtard cuck for believing that Justin Trudeau - or Chrystia Freeland, if she runs in 2025 – can win a general election, or if you think I’m articulating why Poilievre won’t win brilliantly. I don’t care where in that divide you stand, the notion that events in 2022 dictate where 2025 will go is absurd.

This is a very basic point, but there are four possible outcomes of the winners of the next set of elections (don’t @ me, New Democrats, you can’t win):

Ford 2022, Poilievre 2025

Ford 2022, Trudeau/Freeland 2025

Del Duca 2022, Poilievre 2025

Del Duca 2022, Trudeau/Freeland 2025

That’s it. I don’t care what chance you think those four outcomes have relative to each other, but they’re independent outcomes. If you think the results of the 2022 Ontario guarantee or lock out one of those four combinations, you’re deluding yourself into trying to find a silver lining out of a result you don’t like. If Ford wins in June, Liberals will delude themselves into “well, at least Skippy can’t win”, and if the Libs win, then it becomes “well, at least Skippy’s a lock” coping from the disappointed right. It’s all just delusion.

Who wins in June won’t determine 2025. It just fucking won’t, and clinging to a factoid that is historically correct but also not relevant is just delusion. It’s the political equivalent of a lucky jersey – it’s true until it isn’t. You know what my least favourite stat of all time is? In English soccer, there’s a tradition of Boxing Day games, and games will often mention a team’s record in Boxing Day games. Who, in the name of fuck, cares how the 2013 Manchester United team did in determining if they’re going to beat Pissdale United this year?

That’s what the Ontario/Federal drag stuff is. It’s a factoid. It’s nice to have, but it’s utterly useless, so shut the fuck about it. Please god, this election will give you enough real shit to talk about, and panic about, and rejoice about. Shut the fuck up about it, please. I don’t ask that much of you all, please do this for me.