Emptying The Notebook: OLP Leadership

Everything I Know

Since the last time I checked in on this race, there’s actually been a lot that’s happened. The membership deadline has passed, 2 debates have happened (zero of which were watched by me), Bonnie Crombie’s announced a leave of absence as Mayor of Mississauga starting in a couple weeks, and we’ve got a couple more policies this morning (Nate on Education, Bonnie on Housing).

The membership stuff matters a lot – the party is claiming there’s just over 80k total members, with claims of 38.7k signups from Bonnie, 31k from Yasir Naqvi, and 12k from Adil Shamji. You’ll note that without the “thousands” Ted Hsu is claiming and the “tens of thousands” Nate is claiming, we’re already at 81k, so it’s clear people are exaggerating their numbers.

I don’t love writing this in as vague terms as I am. I know things I can’t really say aloud in explicit terms, and that informs this piece. If that’s frustrating to you, I’m sorry, but this is what I think this site can be for – emptying the notebook of what I think, even if it’s not fully formed, or in this case, even if I’m relying on a certain good faith that I’m saying as much as I can.

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Let’s take the two big Crombie decisions of the post-membership period in tandem here – why is she taking this leave of absence and why did she suddenly release a (genuinely very good, at first read) housing plan? Backflipping on Housing policy suddenly after defending herself against attacks for not doing enough and defending that she doesn’t need to build more in her Mayoral capacity? It’s not exactly a sign of strength.

Additionally, why is she suddenly needing to spend 6 weeks on the road if she has the members? If there’s really 38.7k members for Crombie, she’s won! That’s a shade under 50%, and just through exhausted ballots she’d hit 50% on the next ballot, let alone with any form of preference support.

I think it’s clear that the Crombie campaign seems to get they’re in trouble, whether they’re vocalizing that much or not. And if that’s the case she needs to start actually acting like (say it with me now) a liberal to win this race. And so, she’s pivoting.

The math of this race isn’t great for Bonnie, she’s at 33% of donors above $200 (but above 50% in total dollars raised), and she’s now claiming a number of members that’s still under 50%, which means it’s highly likely she’s under 40% when the exaggeration gets corrected for. And if that’s the case, she’s done for on preferences.

The housing plan is either a brilliant masterstroke that will assuage members she’s on our side or a transparently pathetic stunt that will only serve to remind people she has no core principles and only cares about power. It is certainly the case that I do not believe for a single second she would do a damn thing in there, because she never did it as Mayor, but whether that will stop others is as of yet unclear.

Either way, I think it’s clear that the Crombie campaign seems to get they’re in trouble, whether they’re vocalizing that much or not.

Now, let’s be blunt: I think Naqvi’s numbers are the least accurate, because he had the biggest incentive to exaggerate them. The media narrative around this race has been a 2 person contest with Yasir in third. By making a bold claim that is ultimately unfalsifiable, he brings himself back into the contest for second on the key ballot, which is once Ted and Adil have been dropped. As I said above, I think whoever is in second when that ballot is announces beats her in the final round – I’ll certainly have a ballot that reflects that, because while I have some misgivings about another Wynne Cabinet Minister being OLP leader, Yasir would be roughly … infinitely better as OLP leader and a potential Premier than Bonnie. And that’s what matters.

Whether Yasir has more votes than Nate is hard to say – Nate’s not releasing specific numbers and has beaten Yasir in donor numbers, which points to my guy. There’s also the question of preferences from the bottom two, which a crude assessment might say could be Yasir friendly. (That said, I’m highly aware of “white guy predicts how religious and ethnic minorities will vote” errors, as the guy who kept pounding the drum that Georgia Republicans running Herschel was not a salvation to their crisis.)

Now, the name that’s been barely mentioned in this column is my candidate, Nate. The reason is simple – I’m not trying to treat my readers as idiots. Of course I’m hopelessly biased, and nobody can or should really believe me if I lead this column saying that I think Nate’s the likeliest winner, once the ranked ballot happens. I do think this, but I don’t have a leg to stand on when someone calls me a biased fuckwit.

But what I can say is that I’m reading this campaign as confident, which paired with Bonnie’s campaign being more shaky makes sense. Now, Yasir might be the beneficiary of Crombie’s weakness, but it seems like Nate’s inner circle is confident. (I haven’t spoken to anyone on the campaign since I decided to write this column, to be clear,) Campaigns can be confident foolishly, but this is the campaign that got Catherine McKenna to endorse their Climate agenda and Karen McCrimmon to endorse their health policy, so if they seem confident, I’m inclined to believe it’s real, and not bravado.

I don’t think by any means this race is over, but in leadership races, it’s often not decided by persuasion, but by raw math. The good news is I feel safe saying the Ontario Liberals will be led by a liberal. At this stage, however, I’m not at all confident whether it’s Nate or Yasir. May the best liberal win.