Euro Preview: It's Coming Home

On The Sporting Event Of The Summer

(If you're here for politics coverage, it'll be back soon, but Euros are happening, and I have thoughts. If you're opposed, scream at me @EScrimshaw on Twitter.)

I know all the reasons why what I'm about to say is wrong.

I know all of the history, I know the heartbreaks, I know all of it, even if my new found love of this sport means I have had to learn the history after the fact.

I know all of it, and yet, here I am; England are winning Euro 2020.

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Take a step back, and you'll see three tiers of countries going into Euro this year: the favourites, namely France, Belgium and England, who are all under 6/1 on the betting board right now, the contenders, the Germany/Spain/Portugal/Italy tier of countries, and then you have the everybody else tier. (I'd say the Netherlands could be in the contenders category, but I really don't see it happening for them.) Of that top 7, the winner almost assuredly will come from there, and if you go through these squads, you see their flaws very clearly.

You can clearly knock off the Italians from the start, a solid but pedestrian team who has an impressive record in recent years because they singularly fail to book any difficult friendlies for themselves. Congrats, you can score 9 on Armenia, that's not helping you this month. I'd note how they did at the 2018 World Cup, but they didn't qualify. The Spanish similarly can be dismissed, as their glory days continue to fade. After a 2018 Round of 16 defeat, the Spanish have been faltering in international play, and their previous insurance policy, former best goalkeeper in the world David De Gea, is now pedestrian at best. Trust me on this, I've had to watch him at United all season. Their offensive weapons are not good enough at this stage to reliably score on good defences, and De Gea has not been himself since before that 2018 World Cup. Unless he finds the fountain of youth, they're not winning this.

Germany are interesting, with their 2018 World Cup disaster looming over them, when they scored 2 goals in three games and came 4th in their group. They lost to North Macedonia in the last set of World Cup Qualifiers, and their offence can be anemic at times, especially if Timo Werner is going to be Chelsea Timo Werner. Kai Havertz came on strongly towards the end of his season for the Blues, but even then, I don't see how they have the offensive firepower to hang with the big boys.

The Portuguese are intriguing, because of their offensive firepower and perfectly pedestrian squad everywhere else. They're a fine side in most places, but they're a very top heavy squad, with Bruno Fernandes and Ronaldo serving as that top end. Bruno is United talisman, the creator from whom all flows, and he will be able to excel with Ronaldo, if everything works. If Bruno can make his magic work at the highest level, the Portuguese can go deep, and maybe even win. If he plays like he did at times down the stretch for United - including, annoyingly, in the Europa Final, when he was a bit passive and unassertive - then Portugal will be an early exit.

That leaves the top 3, the favourites, and it leaves me having to admit something: I don't get this Belgium love at all. Yes, Lukaku found the fountain of youth for a season in Italy, and Kevin De Bruyne is one of the greatest players in the world, but after that, it's a bunch of good players, but not many I would describe as anything more than good. If I wanted to bank on a good roster with elite high end talent, I'd just bank on Portugal, especially given the risk that De Bruyne isn't fully fit going into the tournament after his orbital bone fracture suffered in the Champions League Final. And so, it's down to two, the battle on the powers on either side of the Channel.

I like this French team a lot, I do - they have an elite holding midfielder in Kante, who took control of large swathes of games for Chelsea down the stretch of their Champions League run, Pogba is a wizard on the ball in the offensive third, and Griezmann, Benzema, and Mbappe is nothing to be sneezed at as a front 3 (or front 2 with Griezmann at the head of a midfield diamond). Their back line is solid, and Hugo Lloris isn't a liability in net - at least, no more or less of one than Jordan Pickford. France won the last World Cup, and they made the 2016 Euro Finals. They're a very solid squad, and to pick them here wouldn't be some horrendous pick, but it would be a mistake.

England 2021 are the squad that many hoped 2018 could be, but wasn't quite. England played Lingard, Ashley Young, and Dele Alli as three of their six offensive minded players last time, and they're likely to be replaced by Mason Mount, Jack Grealish, and Phil Foden. Yes, Harry Maguire is hurt, but whether he plays against Croatia or not, Gareth Southgate will be able to build a passable defence - especially if he uses a Declan Rice-Jordan Henderson midfield duo, which would alleviate a lot of the pressure on whoever replaced Maguire. Yes, right-back terrifies me, especially if Foden has to play any amount of right wing, but if that's the issue, you've built an amazing roster.

That offensive trio - Grealish, Mount, and Foden - are a perfect trio to play with Harry Kane, a striker with actual skills in ball movement. A front four of Mount-Grealish-Foden with Kane up top would be an offensive machine, with the ball moving fluidly and all three of Mount, Foden, and Grealish able and willing to move into empty spaces and see the pitch together. Mount is one of the least appreciated players in the world, but his passing vision - as highlighted by his assist on the sole goal in the Champions League Final - is almost as good as his abilities on the ball. Watch his goals, especially his winner against Liverpool at Anfield, and you'll see the quality he brings to the squad.

Grealish is the talisman of Aston Villa, and the man who took a team from the Championship to a mid table result in three seasons. His injury earlier this year highlighted his value, as that team fell off a fucking cliff without him, and in the two friendlies this month he's been electric, with his on-ball skills opening opportunities for his teammates. Foden, the Manchester City prodigy, showed through in both England and Europe, with his winner in the first Dortmund game a perfect touch before putting the ball exactly where it needed to be. This group - not even mentioning Marcus Rashford or Jaden Sancho, both of who could compete for minutes - will not lose for lack of offensive firepower.

Does Jordan Pickford terrify me? Of course he does, and if England were smart, it would be Dean Henderson, but I'm not going to keep dying on this hill when it's obvious the choice has been made. If Maguire doesn't come back to his best self by the knockout stages, that's a huge blow to the defence, yes, but I don't see how anyone stops the fluidity and the openness of the England attack. Grealish and Kane can break down a set defence expertly, and Foden and Mount both have excellent first touches in tight spaces. If there's a road to a full strength England not scoring 2+ goals every game, I don't see it.

Could they lose? Of course they could, things happen in sport. Hell, Germany lost a World Cup Qualifier to North Macedonia. Shit happens. But this England squad is young, talented, and at a club level heavily successful. It is also a club of seemingly small egos and locker room detente, if not actual respect and admiration. I don't see anyone outscoring them if England gets to dictate pace, but even if they are forced to play a slower, more defensive game, I'm not sure how Henderson and Rice, plus the back line, aren't enough to thwart most threats. With the Semis and Final at Wembley, the case for anyone else winning is even harder to make.

Maybe someone trips them up - maybe Bruno propels Portugal, or KDB and Lukaku are enough to vault Belgium into a tier I think they're not good enough to be in, or maybe the French offence clicks in a way the English one doesn't. Hell, maybe David De Gea does find the fountain of youth, although having watched him at United, I highly, highly doubt that. People are worried that if England wins their group, they'll get the second place country of the France/Germany/Portugal group, as if that means something. If England are going to win the title, they'll have to beat these teams at some point, so I'm not concerned by the bracket.

England have the talent, the final two rounds at Wembley, and the young horses to run your best guys deep into this tournament. They could very easily lose, but England should be considered the clear favourite - and yes, it's coming home.

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Here's a few other takes, for the interested. Scotland is going to be good. I don't think they're much beyond a Round of 16 team but if you told me they made the quarters, not at all shocked. McTominay, McGinn, and a good defensive structure means they should get 4 points at minimum. Sweden are sneaky contenders to win their group, with competence up and down the squad and the fact I'm low as hell on the Spanish. Croatia is everyone's sleeper, Cinderella pick of the year, and that makes me inherently believe they don't even make the Round of 16. If everyone is this in on an underdog - solely because of the 2018 World Cup run to the Final - they will disappoint. That's how this works.

The other way this works is that England will win, and it's coming home. You may not like it, but it's true.