Expectations And Reversion
How To Properly Think Of Reversion
The most anticipated sporting event of the day for me wasn't the Super Bowl (I'm a bitter Packers fan, of course I'm not excited here), but the Final Round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open golf tournament. Why? Jordan Spieth was tied for the lead coming into the day, and Spieth is my favourite athlete. The man whose success in 2015 saved my interest in the sport, Spieth has been notoriously shit for years, not having won anything since the 2017 British Open, and not seriously contending for a victory since the 2018 British. A handful of high finishes have been mostly mirages, the product of low expectations and no scrutiny on Sunday leading to a low round that makes it all look better than it was. He looked lost for much of the last 3 years, especially in the aftermath of the 2018 Masters, but this week, randomly, he was back. And then, Sunday was a struggle.
I woke up super excited for the potential of a Jordan win, but it wasn't to be. He was nervous, tentative, and a little bit the victim of bad luck, but he just didn't play well enough to win. But I'm not upset or sad - Spieth was, if just for one week, back, and I'm excited to see what happens. It was probably too much to expect a win in the first round back, but as he rolled in two long putts back to back on Saturday, logic took a back seat.
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It's funny that this happened on the same day that this point was made, because the impulse that made me think that Spieth could win today is the same one that makes people think that large scale reversion - either in Democratic fortunes in rural America, or in Republican fortunes in suburban America - is possible. That impulse is understandable, even if misguided. Sure, Spieth has won 9 times with a lead going into Sunday, but those nine wins were when Spieth was a different golfer. After three years away from the winner's circle, he was never going to just pick up right where he left off. And, even if we see some amount of reversion, we shouldn't expect to see anything resembling previous levels of support.
Could Democrats do better in Mahoning, OH, in 2022 than they did in 2020, with Tim Ryan on the ballot for the Senate race and Trumpian rural whites not turning out? Sure, but what passes for a good night in Mahoning now would have been seen as a disaster in 2012, when Obama won the county by 28%. Could better days be coming? Sure, but better doesn't mean good, and reversion needs to be understood at scale. Could Democrats slip in Gwinnett in 2022? I can't rule it out. Could they come at any risk of losing it? Absolutely not, despite the GOP last having won it in 2014.
As the realignment has happened, a lot of things have moved really, really fast. Ross County, Ohio has moved 30%+ in two cycles, from a marginal in 2012 to a blood red county now. If you had told me in 2016 Democrats do well there, a single digits GOP win would have been how you heard that. Now if you tell me Democrats did well in Ross, holding the GOP to a 20% win is the high end of my imagination. But, the past can play tricks on our minds.
We don't forget the recent nature of these counties or areas, and so we insist in a weird way that the realignment can be undone. It can't be. It isn't coming back anytime soon, at least, for a variety of factors that I harp on on a near daily basis. But we can't forget the past. If you asked me at any point last night, I thought Spieth was going to win. Was it fairly nonsensical? Yes, but I remember "Go Get That" and his bunker shot at the Travelers too well to not get excited by the prospect. The prospect of realignment is similar - if you're looking for the reversal of the totemic swings that 2012-16 brought, you'll find yourself disappointed. But, expectations properly calibrated, you can find happiness in doing better than you currently expect, even if it isn't the old glory days.
Just ask any Jordan Spieth fan.