Fetterman, Impeachment, And The Kander-Kobach Rule

A Truly Horrible Week For GOP Chances in 2022

As longtime readers of mine might remember, there was a concept I floated some time back - the Kander-Kobach rule, named for duelling politicians in the bordering states of Missouri and Kansas. The basic premise was that sometimes, rarely but occasionally, we get politicians either so good (Jason Kander) or so bad (Kris Kobach) that the mere fact of their presence on a General Election ballot should force a total reimagining of the prospects for that race. The theory, such as it is, came from the idea that I will never - ever - treat a race where Jason Kander is a candidate as anything worse than Lean R, even if Missouri is as red as fucking Wyoming when it comes to it. Kander is a generational talent as a candidate - and by all accounts, a truly decent man - and his presence on any Missouri ballot paper means that Democrats have a real shot.

The idea of Kander as an active candidate for public office again is a question whose answer just got a lot more live this week with the season premiere of the Treason Show Featuring Josh Hawley, with the normally horrible junior Senator from Missouri finding an entirely new level of terrible this week. As he posed like a wannabe dictator, Kander's name started to pop around Twitter, with many (including from yours truly) imploring a 2024 Senate run against the Senatorial Leader of the American Fascists. Whether he will or not is very unclear - Kander's attempts to run for office after his 2016 miracle run for Senate were cut short because of his longstanding battles with PTSD, and his health is obviously the highest priority. But I can't pretend that I wouldn't love to see him square off against Hawley.

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On Friday, we got our first Kander-Kobach Rule announcement of the cycle, with John Fetterman announcing he's considering a Senate run in Pennsylvania. The current Lieutenant Governor, Fetterman is the walking embodiment of what you'd imagine a Western Pennsylvanian would look like. He walks into a General Election a sizable favourite for many reasons in this Biden state, but his special political talents are at the head of the list.

You cannot claim that Fetterman is a traditional or establishment politician - literally, just look at the guy, and you'll see how stupid the argument is - and you can't assume that the GOP will get the same margins in Western PA that they got twice under Trump with Fetterman. Politics is about cultural issues these days, not economics, and Fetterman is culturally one with those rural Trump voters. That's not to say he's a conservative - he's firmly progressive on social issues - but he doesn't come off like a fake when he speaks about issues that rural voters care about. Democrats have run candidates with good policy ideas for rural America for years now, but they don't get a hearing. John Fetterman will.

There's also nothing in Fetterman's history or record that suggests he won't be able to continue the good Democratic trendlines in the Philly metro, especially in the collar counties. No, Ryan Costello's candidacy wouldn't change my view about this, because nothing will change my fundamental view that Democrats will continue to do well in the suburbs because every centre-left party in the fucking world is doing better in the suburbs.

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Should Pelosi impeach the President again? Of course, and not just for the moral reasons that allowing armed insurrection without sanction is bad. It's horrible politics for the GOP. Think about someone like David Schweikert - a Republican in suburban Arizona, who voted to toss out his own constituents votes this week - and you see why Democrats can see a political win from a second impeachment. Making Schweikert - and the few dozen other Republican incumbents in seats Democrats want to take in 2022 - take a vote is a huge win for Democrats. If he votes to acquit the President, then you use it like an anchor around his neck for two years, hurting him with his moderate voters back home in a general. If he votes for impeachment, great - his chances of losing a primary just surged, and the chances that Democrats get a Lauren Boebert-esque figure they can easily beat is worth it.

Is it worth it just to win one House seat? Of course not. But repeat the exercise again and again - with Nancy Mace in SC-01, with all the new California members, with the new members in Florida's 26th and 27th districts, and more - and you see the real value here. Force the GOP to split, or force vulnerable swing district incumbents to take a vote that signals acceptance with behaviour that seems to be about as popular as piss with independents and swing voters.

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With the Georgia results last week showing a lack of suburban reversion, the Fetterman announcement, and now the political trap the GOP face with impeachment, the GOP chances of holding either chamber after 2022 - and, consequently, the chances of a chamber sweep - look pretty low. Them gaining the House is more likely than the Senate at this point, because I honestly cannot find the path for them to make a net gain in the Senate, and at least in theory the House could be their domain in two years. I doubt it, however, without having seen the lines. Make as many assumptions as you want about how ruthless the GOP will be with redistricting, sure, but there is a very good chance the GOP get shafted in California and New York. This past week has been a stain on America, undoubtedly, but it has also been a stain on the GOP - and now their House members are going to be exposed to a vote nobody wants to have to take, which will either weaken them in a general election or risk crazies winning swing district primaries. Oh, and the GOP Senate now has to fight a Kander-Kobach Rule candidate in Pennsylvania, their most vulnerable Senate seat, because their problems didn't go far enough already. And, to top off the shit Sunday, I think the GOP and Josh Hawley have sufficiently pissed off Jason Kander that he's probably going to run for the Senate again in either 2022 or 2024, so enjoy having to spend millions in a red state.

America has had a truly horrible week. Somehow, the political fortunes of the GOP might have had a worse one.