Fighting The Next Fight

DFW, RGV, And The Right War

There’s nothing I got more wrong in 2020 than Texas. I got it entirely wrong, and even beyond the fact I got it wrong, I got it wrong because I thought I was smarter than everybody else. Anyone who remembers my arrogant, idiotic takes about how the Hispanic problem was a media creation, a narrative to be ignored, will know what I mean when I say I got it very, very wrong.

Now, was what I was saying somewhat defensible? In a manner of speaking, maybe, in that I had facts on my side that if repeated in 2020 would have led to me being correct. Like, the 2018 New York Times/Siena poll did get the white vote bang on but missed by 20% with Hispanics, and that’s why the polls were all uniformly higher on Cruz than the result ended up being. In 2020, the polling miss flipped, with the polls being mostly in line with the Hispanic result but wildly overestimating Democratic strength with whites (both in Texas and everywhere else). The result was a map where Tarrant flipped (although less than 2018), where Houston barely moved (but moved left a lot in the white burbs and a lot right in the Hispanic downtown), and where the Rio Grande Valley swung heavily, heavily Republican. And it’s led to a lot of questions about what it all means.

I did a radio interview last month and was asked that very question - does the Hispanic problems for the Democratic Party mean Texas can’t go blue now? I get it, but I think it’s deeply flawed, for one reason - the GOP have so much more room to fall in the urban centers than they have to gain amongst rural Hispanics, and unless you think the GOP will stop their fall in the cities, Texas is going to flip. Take just two facts, and you’ll see how Democrats will eventually win the state. Per the Fox exits, 55% of Texas voters support legal abortion in all or most cases, and Joe Biden won those voters by 37%. Of the 45% who think it should be illegal in all or most cases, Donald Trump won by 50%. That would suggest that Democrats are the ones with upside, because if they can get the same margins amongst social liberals as the GOP can get amongst cultural conservatives, then they’ll win the state. The other fact comes from Lak, who ran a regression this morning showing how places vote compared to what you would expect just based on race and education data. Notice anything?

There should be two things that stand out - namely that the GOP massively outperform in the DFW, meaning their vote there is much more reliant on educated whites (and, in many cases, well off white social liberals), but also south Texas. Those heavily Hispanic areas of the Rio Grande Valley? They’re actually more Democratic than you’d expect just based on those race and education splits. Why? These areas are largely rural, the people are largely not degree holders, and there is no reason - other than the colour of their skin - that they would be voting for the Democratic party.  Put it another way, and it becomes starker - is there any reason why a place where I would not be comfortable taking a partner of mine should be voting for us?

We understand when it is rural Tennessee or southwest Virginia that these places are never coming back to a Democratic Party constructed as the current one is. There will be many who pine for the olden days, but it is widely accepted that these sorts of seats and areas are gone, and not coming back. Even amongst the biggest Collin Peterson stans of Election Twitter, nobody thinks that seat (assuming it is similarly constructed next time around) is anything other than Likely R or Safe R, even if he were to run again. But suddenly, when the voters lost are non-white, there is this idea that they can be gotten back, and it just isn’t true, unfortunately. Democrats are not getting the RGV back, and more importantly, they shouldn’t try.

The next Democratic coalition, both in Texas and nationally, will be whiter than the old coalitions. I'm not saying this as a good thing, because obviously I'd love to be able to get Obama-2012 style results with Hispanics and culturally conservative working class whites and Biden results with well off white social liberals, but it ain't happening. It's a fiction, and not understanding it as such is either delusional or downright damaging. Democrats have to be very clear eyed about what will win them seats moving forward, and this map shows so starkly where they have room to grow, and where they still have votes to bleed.

You can prioritize Hispanic outreach and you can knock on more doors and maybe Democrats will do better in 2022 with culturally conservative Hispanics because Trumpian, low propensity voters don't turn out, but you'll be doing that for a payoff that's not worth it, and you'll be doing it at the cost of outreach to the DFW quad, where you actually can find voters who will flip. The GOP are in a spot where they are reliant on social liberals breaking more weakly for Democrats than social conservatives do for them, and that means that Democrats best path is through flipping social liberals, not some fanciful notion that anti-abortion Catholics in the RGV will come home. If Democrats prioritize the voters they can actually win, they have a very good chance at a good 2022. If they don't, they'll languish in the House minority yet again.

Don't fuck this up.