Final Scotland Preview: SNP Majority Unlikely
Will The SNP Get Their Vaunted Majority?
Thursday is the Scottish election, and we've had a slew of polls in the final week, many with contradictory views of the Scottish electorate. What we know at this point is who is going to win - Nicola Sturgeon will be the First Minister after this election. Whether she does this in majority government or not is the question, and views are varied on the question. Personally, I don't think they do.
This is my forecast, but the forecast is rubbery for three reasons: first, the nature of the electoral system used means that very small changes in vote share can move the 7th List seat in regions, so these predictions are much less precise than, say, predictions about Canadian parliamentary seats or American House races. On the other hand, errors in the constituency allocations can be cancelled out in the list, so it's not so rubbery as to justify not projecting it at all. Secondly, the pollster spread is large, and while an average might be correct, if pollsters at either ends of the spread are correct, this estimate will be wrong. (You'd think this is an obvious statement, and yet.) And the third source of potential error is tactical voting.
My constituency assumptions are that the SNP will gain Edinburgh Central and lose Moray, with the Tories losing the seat of their former leader and gaining the seat of their current leader. The SNP gain an additional list seat for losing Moray, while the Tories don't gain one for losing Edinburgh Central. If the Tories hold Edinburgh Central, they're on 30, and the SNP are on 62 in my projections. That said, with Ruth Davidson off the ballot, I don't see Edinburgh Central staying blue.
The SNP's problem, in a nutshell, is that lots of the seats they'd like to win at a constituency level wouldn't actually increase their representation, but merely rearrange it. Gain either Shetland or Orkney, won by the Lib Dems in 2016, and you'd be happy, right? Except, oh no, you'll lose one of your two - or both of, if you won both constituencies - your list seats. SNP gains in the South of Scotland constituencies would be nice, but again, two list MSPs would be defeated if you made gains. The best place for the SNP would be gains in Edinburgh, where a clean sweep would take them from my projected 63 to the 65 needed for a majority.
For the Tories, they're likely to lose a couple of seats to the Greens, in Glasgow and Central Scotland, where the Greens came close last time (for a first seat in Central and a second in Glasgow), and where the Green vote increase costs them a seat whether they win or not. If they get Edinburgh Central, they could get to 30, and if their campaign for unionist unity on the Party vote works better than the polls say, they could make gains, probably at Labour's expense, or at the SNP's expense in Highland & Islands and South Scotland. The fiction peddled about the Tories slipping to 3rd behind the Labour Party should be put to bed.
Labour has managed the impressive task of inspiring literally nobody, with their left wing but almost declinist posture on the constitutional question managing to alienate unionists (who are voting Tory), nationalists (who are voting SNP), and lefties (who are voting Green). It's only because of the voting system that they will retain much strength, but it was a horrible campaign from Scottish Labour (as is the new normal). The Lib Dems at least manage, in this protection, to keep all their seats.
The big winners of this campaign are the Greens, who are on track to gain a seat in every region and win two in Edinburgh and Glasgow, on route to another kingmaker position in the Scottish Parliament. They are on track for their best ever result, and the sort of power that a proportional representation Parliament is designed to give smaller parties that can command substantial support, as they do. Getting to 10% of the vote would also represent an additional breakthrough, which is very much in play. (Also, no, Alex Salmond's Alba party is not going to make it into Parliament, at least not on any public data available.)
So what does it all mean? A lot, and nothing. There will continue to be a nationalist majority in the Scottish Parliament, the hung Parliament that has governed for five years will continue without much difference, and the SNP will have to consider whether Nicola Sturgeon's behaviour in probably (or let's be honest here, absolutely) lying to the Scottish Parliament about Salmond cost them a majority government, and whether she is the right leader for the next five years. The SNP's majority was theirs to win, and they're looking like they'll fall short.
Rating: Safe SNP Government, Lean Minority (65% Chance Minority SNP Government, 35% SNP Majority)