Health Care Crises And Serious Trudeau

On Ford Giving In On Strings Attached

This week has seen some actual, important policy news in Canada, as the first (and main) domino in the health care funding standoff has fallen. Doug Ford, after months of insisting on no restrictions on how additional federal funds would be spent, has now said that he could live with strings being attached.

This isn’t a particularly shocking outcome – the Premiers need the money and the Feds weren’t going to bend on this, so the outlines of the emerging deal have always been clear. It probably will involve more federal dollars than they originally were thinking, in exchange for the accountability and the strings. Honestly, whatever your concern for the federal finances, it’s probably the better deal, because it doesn’t seem like there’s any shortage of needs in the system that money can solve.

I’m not that interested in faking an expertise on how much is needed, because frankly there are many many better people than me at doing that, but there is something notable about this. Justin Trudeau is going to win this standoff with the provinces, and he is going to do so on his terms. And honestly, it seems notable that just as the Prime Minister was being written off last summer and his political obituary was being prepared, his government has come out and probably had its most effective run of form since the early COVID days.

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Put aside what you think of the government, either in a political or policy sense, and think about the tone of the coverage of this government in August. Now, they’ve successfully gotten phase one of the dental care stuff done, they got the bonus GST out to people, not just survived the Emergencies Act inquiry but had Trudeau coming out looking statesmanlike and serious in a way he hasn’t in a long time. Oh, and he won the Mississauga Lakeshore byelection, to whatever extent that matters.

This government is not a world beater by any means – my criticisms of them and their ethics record are fairly well known, especially amongst the legion of you who have read me for a long time. But it’s also true that they are probably the best government of any longevity in the G7 or the Anglo bits of the G20. I am willing to be proven wrong on this, but I fail to believe there is any great segment of this country that is super eager to emulate the UK Tories’ brand of chaos or the managed decline of Macron’s France, nor do I think that you can say on the whole Biden’s (very good) legislative accomplishments in the first two years make him better than Trudeau, given the Child Benefit and the Child Care deals are two big legacy successes (and, let’s be honest, the GOP-led House risking a debt default is not helping their cause).

The problem with all discussions of this government is that everyone suffers from some form of Trudeau Derangement Syndrome – both his staunchest defenders and his most vocal critics are driven mad by a Prime Minister who seems, fundamentally, to be one of the less interesting characters to have held the office. He is neither the King that many on the left want to make him out to be, infallible and unable to succeed nor the class dunce the right is so desperate to pretend he is.

He is not, as much of the right paints him as, merely a reflection of his last name, a trust fund kid running the family business into the ground in the vein of James Dolan and the New York Knicks. He is a serious person doing a serious job, and for as much as some want to reject that fundamental truth, he is not seen as the joke on the world stage that many are desperate for him to be.

With that said, he does have a streak to him of presentationism, and there will be people – like Malcolm Turnbull did – who find that pretentious and frankly fucking annoying. I know the times when Trudeau is his most Trudeau is when I find him to be the worst, but he proves when he has to that he isn’t incapable of stepping up to the moment.

What this health care fight illustrates so well isn’t just that the right and the commentariat keep underestimating him, nor just that Jagmeet Singh’s political instincts are terrible – that is all true, but it’s secondary. It’s mostly a necessary reminder that he can do a big thing well. Getting these concessions from the Premiers is a huge deal for the meaningful return to a prior level of service, and in standing his ground health care in this country will probably run meaningfully better on my 27th birthday in 2024 than it will next week when I turn 26.

None of this is to say Justin Trudeau is perfect on policy or morals – I have deep frustrations with his government on policy and even deeper distrust of their ethics. Remember, I used to work on the Hill in 2016, and would routinely hear staffers call the Liberals the Natural Governing Party mere months after being in 3rd place. But he can get shit done.

Managing to get a transformative legacy project through, and done to the point where there is such tangible benefits, at a time when it’s only been minority parliaments is hard, but that’s what Trudeau has managed with these child care deals that are meaningfully saving parents of young kids thousands of dollars a year. To deny that between the child care deals and the Child Benefit the Liberals have radically enhanced the livelihoods of those with children is to deny reality.

Trudeau’s best chance at maximizing one more election is not, as much as some would say, to make it a referendum on Poilievre and Jordan Peterson and a lot of things and people that I can’t fucking keep straight, let alone the average voter. The best way for the Liberals to win the next election is to govern well for the next few years and show the contrast, don’t say it.

The Liberals will want to go into 2025 running the 2011 Harper playbook – “I governed well in a time of instability, the other side are chucklefucks, don’t let them ruin my successes”, in so many words. The problem the Conservatives have is that even if I can’t keep straight who all the people are in the weird tangled web of right wing freaks Poilievre knows and hangs out with, there is still a lot of stories that all, over time, add up to him being a bit … off centre. Bitcoin as a way to opt out of inflation, incel tags on his videos, Jordan Peterson, the weird psycho who loved Poilievre and then horrifically joked about attacking and abusing Poilievre’s wife, it’s not all gonna be breaking point stuff, but it all adds up to a sense of the situation.

Played properly, the Liberals will be able to go into the 2025 election offering stability against chaos, and Trudeau getting the provinces to promise health transfers will go to health care is key to this. Trudeau’s best chance of winning the Liberals another term runs through Serious Trudeau. Let’s pray winning this staring contest with Ford is the first of many such victories.