Leslyn Lewis And The Crisis Of Canadian Conservatism

On The Former Insurgent's Second Chance

The best way to think about Canadian politics and the Conservative Party of Canada is that Canadian Toryism isn’t wanted in Canada, and that the Tories really only win when the music runs out on the Liberals. The last two Tories to win Majority Government in this country – Stephen Harper and Brian Mulroney – did it by in many ways abandoning Toryism, and that fact leaves Conservatives resentful that they aren’t wanted in this country.

The combination of geography and the fact that the central crisis of the latter half of the 20th century in Canada was Quebec has meant that the conservative West has felt understandably snubbed, second rate citizens in their own country. Whether it’s true in a legal sense (it’s not) is irrelevant – “The West Wants In” wasn’t about a set of policies, it was about a cultural revolution in how this country operates. “The West” wanted a country that treats the big western cities as equals, they wanted more understanding of the West, they wanted westerners in positions of power, with the understanding that there’s a soft power from being at the decision making table that helps grease the wheels of power and changes your biases, explicit and implicit.

The funny thing is what the West wanted actually did happen in Canada, it just wasn’t with Westerners. The cultural revolution of the last 30 years has happened, it was just gay people who rose up positions of power and influence, and had their big wish – legalization of gay marriage – go from a fringe position to the accepted law of the land, and that’s why the resentment of the West, and of the Christian right of the Conservative Party, is so fucking angry. They wanted revolution, and they got it, but it was the wrong fucking one. And now, they’re looking for someone they love, not someone they can tolerate.

Think about Conservatism’s main complaint about the relationship it has with Canada, and it’s ambivalence. The West, and this kind of conservatism, views Canada as ambivalent towards them, indifferent to their happiness or their view of their country. It’s institutionalized indifference, in their view, and they’re sick of nominating compromise candidates as Leader and still losing. Erin O’Toole was able to make his party swallow a form of carbon pricing on the promise he’d win the next election, and then he lost. So, now what?

I think Pierre Poilievre is likely the next Conservative leader, but I’m not 1000% sure it’ll be him. What I do know is it won’t be Jean Charest or Patrick Brown, nor anyone else outside the Big 4. But Leslyn Lewis? Yeah, I’m buying in a bit – she has a chance to win, all because of one thing – Conservatives want a leader who loves them too.

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“I want you to want me, baby/Just like I want you”

If the Conservative Party and the conservative movement hated ambivalence and indifference, and they finally want to be loved, then Leslyn Lewis is the clear choice for them. A firebreathing pro-lifer whose 2020 campaign expressed her 100% opposition to abortion in all cases, Lewis is no moderate, and she is the pure, uncut version of conservatism that many Tories, whether they voted for her last time or not, want. She is the choice of unapologetic conservatism, no compromises, no feeling bad about her beliefs.

She is what the Tories would pick if this was a closest to the pin competition and the sole question was who closest represents the membership’s views on the issues that matter most. She is the candidate for those who get a little uncomfortable seeing two gay men kiss in public, who flinch a little at those sorts of displays of affection. She is the candidate for “why can’t we go back to a time when this all made more sense,” because despite (if she won) being the first Black Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition, she isn’t going to talk about race or sex the same way Kamala Harris does.

She is the candidate of that Western conservatism because she is the candidate for not compromising and losing. The Tory Party was already receptive enough to her to give her the most votes, although the least points, in the 2020 second ballot, and while we probably would have lost in a MacKay/Lewis final round, that we can’t say that for sure is a sign of her real strength.

I don’t think she can win for a simple reason – Pierre gets Charest voters’ preferences in a Lewis/Skippy Final Round, and I don’t think she has a road to 50%+1 against Skippy. If Skippy falters, and it’s her versus Charest, she will beat him. But I don’t think she can beat Skippy, and I don’t think Skippy falters.

That said, she has a path, and it’s very clear what that is – the Tories wanting a leader who wants them too.