Memo To Mark Carney: Time To Start Preparing For A PQ Government Now

On Arthabaska And Looming Crises

Monday night saw a Quebec byelection in one of the Quebec Conservatives’ best seats, an effort by their leader to get into the National Assembly that got spoiled by the PQ. The CAQ fell from a majority to single digits, and the PQ wildly overperformed what any model or forecast would have suggested in vote share and margin. Those interested in the governance impacts it’s likely to be meaningful. Whether Legault will resign is a question beyond my capacity - the CAQ is a Legault party in a way that there’s little comparison, and there’s no clear infrastructure or power base to force him out - but also besides the point almost. He’s going to lose the next election, and a replacement won’t save the CAQ.

The election of Pablo Rodriguez as Quebec Liberal leader makes the next election interesting, and anybody claiming the PQ have definitely won it is putting the cart before the horse, but it’s now officially time to start wondering what happens if they do win. They’re committed to another referendum, they’re at least implicitly committed to a more hostile relationship with Ottawa regardless of whether they pull the trigger on Referendum 3.0, and this is at a time when the federal Liberals have won more seats in Quebec since at any time since Pierre Trudeau. The implications of a PQ government against Mark Carney with a bigger mandate in Quebec than Justin Trudeau ever managed is quite fascinating, but also real.

Carney has skated so far on being given the benefit of the doubt because he has inherited the crises that have dominated his Premiership so far. But the thing is, this is a crisis that will be coming in 14 months time, barring a shock. And Carney will not be able to rely on the excuse that he couldn’t have known when it comes. The PQ are here for another referendum, and I’d like to know that someone in Ottawa with an official fucking title knows it, and is working on solving it.

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The success of the Unity Rally and the 1995 campaign was built not on economic arguments but on emotional appeals. The idea that Charest was one of them and also a committed federalist saved the confederation. The problem for Carney is he’s not a Quebecer, he’s an Anglo with seemingly no emotional relationship to Quebec. He’s an imperfect person to lead this moment, but unless you think Pierre Poilievre is going to lead the CPC to a 2027 election win - which seems unlikely, given that he’s running out 2024’s message calendar again - he’s likely the best shot we’ve got. He’s the horse we have to back.

That said, he needs to show a deftness to this issue that cannot survive the communications errors of his term so far. Carney’s approach to national unity cannot be convening meetings that go nowhere and memos that get leaked out of context to the Hill Times. Carney needs to show he understands Quebec and why it is contemplating such notions or he will be faced with polls that show a chance this fanciful notion can succeed.

Such a strategy can start with appointing a Minister for National Unity - Steve MacKinnon got unfairly shafted in the reshuffle, and while House Leader is a decent job he can do more - and by allowing said Minister to actually set strategy for fighting the PQ. The risk of a PQ government should be now the default, and decisions on strategy to handle them should be made now, instead of being reactionary once they win. Give MacKinnon, or whoever else, a runway to meet with stakeholders and a budget to test messaging that will ensure that once the PQ wins, we don’t waste time spinning our wheels.

Carney also needs to spend more time in Quebec. Quebecers don’t care if you aren’t Quebecois, but they do care if you make no effort to understand Quebec. Carney did a good enough job to win the Federal election, but he’s not done enough to show people he understands Quebec in the way he needs to. Going to Quebec frequently, if only to Gatineau for steamies and to Montreal for official business, will help him. He needs to be proactive in avoiding the sentiment he’s an English Canadian PM only concerned with English Canadian priorities.

Pointing out that the PQ doesn't have a strategy for a post-independence Quebec won’t be enough. Pointing out that there’s no clear plan for how separation will even occur will be even less useful for the Liberals. Carney and co need to make an active case for Quebec in Canada that will rankle many outside the province as pandering. Respectfully the only response should be to be glad you’re worth pandering to. Quebec is a special place and an indelible part of Canada - and we need a federal government that will back that.

If Carney can’t be the one to produce the heartfelt stories about how great Quebec is, that’s fine. There’s plenty of Cabinet Ministers who can. But Carney will need to be there with policy pronouncements while MacKinnon is hopefully giving speeches about how the best decision he ever made was moving to Quebec. There needs to be hopeful language and optimistic words, but there needs to be a plan.

I’ve written extensively about Quebec, and the fact that while I wasn’t born there I feel an immense kinship to La Belle Province, and I refuse to lose it. It’s too important to lose. It’s the best of this country, it’s the best we can be, and it’s now at risk in a way we can’t ignore. We cannot let the crisis we know is coming be a surprise when it arrives, and so we need to be ready now.

We need to show that we are prepared to be constructive partners on issues that the PQ will want to claim us wreckers on. When Legault was threatening McGill, Concordia, and Bishop’s, I suggested that the Feds offer to front the money they’d have allegedly made from the tuition hikes for a “Preservation of the French Language” fund that would probably not be well spent but would be a great platform from which to announce grants all across Quebec to community groups, local organizations, and anybody else that could plausibly be “preserving French”. And if there’s a steady stream of such announcements, it’ll show the Liberals care.

There are other options that aren’t hugely important in isolation - have Mark Carney make a phone call to Gary Bettman saying Quebec City should get a hockey team! Show your support for Quebec wines! Take a vacation in the Gaspé! - but that shows Carney understands Quebec. The reason that separatists think a Conservative government in Ottawa is their best chance at independence is because they think such a leader won’t be able to play well in Quebec, and in a referendum. We need Carney to show he’s capable of meeting the moment - which, I think he is.

The PQ’s win in Arthabaska is yet another sign we are on a path to a referendum. For Carney, that’s a sign to start the planning now. We need to see an energetic response to the voters’ concerns, and we need to see him leading the charge. We need to do everything in our powers to make Quebec view independence as a terrible idea, and thoroughly scare the PQ from even risking a referendum it knows it’ll lose.

And that starts right fucking now.