Memo To The OLP: One Week From Writ

6 Ideas To Help The OLP

It’s been pretty well reported at this point that Doug Ford is going to an election next week, and even beyond the Star’s reporting Nick Kouvalis wouldn’t go on the record with his polling if he wasn’t extremely confident he’s correct. (I’ll get into the broader polling dynamics in a bit, but I should say full credit to Kouvalis for putting his name on that data. Plenty of private pollsters only put out data after the fact to show their brilliance in success. Putting your name on it is worthy of commendation.) And so, here’s your election reset/strategy memo.

Liaison and Mainstreet both have a similar race, one where the NDP have fallen into a clear third place, the Tories are at basically 40, the Liberals are at 30, the NDP’s around 20. Depending on the seat projection you use the numbers change, but it’s essentially the same size majority as last time for Ford. They trade some low hanging suburban losses to the OLP for right trending regional gains from the NDP, and the Liberals are favourites but by no means locks to win Opposition. If you believe Kouvalis is even directionally correct with his 24% lead over the Liberals, the Tories are winning 90+ seats, and probably even flirting with 100 if he’s actually correct.

My guess, or at least my loosely held prior, is that the answer is somewhere in the middle. The Mainstreet and Liaison numbers seem soft for Ford, given the current nature of his attack lines. The idea that Crombie is breaking through and Ford’s really in the 40/41 range when Ford is being his most useful and least offensive self in years is hard to grasp. My ability to guess public perception is not perfect, I quite respect the people at Mainstreet, and I am aware they’re better at this than my gut, but if you’d have asked me to guess what Ford’s polls would be given his Captain Canada routine I’d have said mid 40s to Crombie’s high 20s. Hilariously, that’s roughly what an average of Mainstreet and Kouvalis’ polls would show.

But I am less interested in whether or not Kouvalis is right or wrong right now than I am in ensuring he doesn’t get proven right in 5 weeks. The pollster wars are fun, and lord knows it’ll be a crutch I lean on in time, but right now my greater utility is using whatever influence, however insane it is I have any, to make a few suggestions. In fact, in the spirit of the season, let’s make it a #ScrimshawSix of them.

Run To The Left … But Ignore Marit Stiles

The Liberals are nominally in a paradox, but it’s actually pretty simple. They need to appeal to left wing voters, many of whom didn’t vote in 2022, but they also cannot forget they need to win Ford voters back and also they cannot be seen as focusing solely on beating the NDP. It’s a tightrope, but the thing is, I don’t think it’s that tight.

You can run on good, solid, popular left wing progressive ideas without running at the NDP. The NDP are a joke, led by a leader who staked her personal credibility on tossing an antisemite from the party and then is about to let her back in. It’s a party that hasn’t produced a coherent plan on how to increase the supply of doctors (like the Liberals have), that doesn’t have any answers on tax policy, and whose housing policy is a nonsensical, badly costed plan that either would balloon the deficit by some huge number of multiples or much more likely wouldn’t work because the original sum they budgeted was a fraction of what it would cost, instead of just doing the smart, genuinely ambitious Liberal housing plan.

It’s a party that is out of touch with the priorities of common Ontarians, even common progressive ones. Their plan to impose safety zones around drag bars is a classic of the genre - a bad idea on its merits that also serves to remind people that the inner city elites who run that party are tragically out of touch with the priorities of the province.

The answer is to put a few solid ideas into the window - the housing policy definitely being top of the list - that can excite left wing, potentially Nate Erskine-Smith supporting voters, but to ignore the NDP. When the Crombie tax cut was proposed, I was told by well connected Liberals that they were looking at mechanisms to help those that the tax cut wouldn’t. Between the housing announcement, whatever is coming on that front, and maybe a decent set of infrastructure/transit promises, you can show you’re willing to do big things without even saying the NDP’s name. Treat the NDP like they don’t exist, because they might as well not. This is an election between Bonnie and Doug. The most devastating thing the Liberals can do to Stiles and co is go full Mad Men and not think about them at all.

Reclaim The Mantles Of Fiscal Discipline …

One of our best arguments against Doug Ford is that he’s a buffoon who is at best reckless and at worst corrupt in how he spends public dollars. There is absolutely a lane to talk about fiscal policy and his huge deficits without turning off progressives, which is taking the entirely consistent approach that the best way to fund more doctors, more teachers, more nurses, better pay for all of the above, and the infrastructure improvements to hospitals and schools is to find the money being wasted on giveaways and negligence and repurpose it.

This is an argument that I’ve made before, but it’s a perfect argument because you can go to both Halton and High Park with the same message. “We need to cut waste to fund services better” works in both places because everybody thinks government is inefficient, and nobody wants tax rises or deficits if they can be avoided. You’re telling the left that there will be more program spending, and you’re telling PC voters who are open to you that you’re going to be zealous in how you approach the public purse. It’s a win win.

… And Being Tough On The Causes Of Crime

Another issue where the left needs to be reassured we’re not totally selling out to the right is crime and drugs policy. The voters aren’t with us, but they can be. The old Blairite tautology of being tough on crime and tough on its causes is a winner for a reason. Voters get that crime is not just a function of some people being good people and some being bad people. They also don’t always love the social spending that would actually benefit them through lower levels of crime.

If the OLP are thinking of a substantial rise to ODSP - a good policy that they absolutely should be considering - selling that as part of a broader strategy to reduce crime and anti-social behaviour is paramount. It’s both true and good politics to package good social policies in the clothing of tough on crime. And we know pretending it’s not an issue or that we can skate by it won’t work.

Publicly Own That You Were Wrong In The Past

One of the things that didn’t work about Kamala Harris’ campaign down south is that a lot of her policy flip flops from 2019 to 2024 were leaked, not admitted. She changed her view on fracking, on immigration policies, and others, but she would return to non-answers in her own campaign. “I support fracking” is not an answer to “why did you change your view on fracking?”, and pretending it is is disingenuous. Bonnie will be hit with multiple of these questions, and the key is for her to admit she’s changed her mind.

Bonnie’s record on housing as a Mayor is bad. It’s real bad. It’s atrocious. She needs to own that fact, because pretending that she’s always been some good on housing YIMBY will kill any forward momentum the campaign had and allow the Tories to paint her as a flip flopping politician who will say whatever it takes to win. Instead, just own it.

“As Mayor, I prioritized the wrong voices, choosing to put the interests of homeowners above the greater good of the city. If I could go back, I’d make different, better choices. Since becoming Liberal leader, I’ve listened to Ontarians and experts for solutions to our housing crisis. They have given me many solutions that Doug Ford doesn’t have the courage to enact, and those are the solutions I’m intending on making as Premier.” Isn’t that a better answer than just nonsense pablum about how the Liberals have a More For You Housing Plan?

Voters like politicians who are authentic and real. People get shit wrong. Owning that is a hell of a lot more likely to get people on board than pretending you’ve held a position for years you very clearly haven’t.

Let The NDP Do The Negative Attacks On Ford

The big lesson of 2022 was that voters mostly know Ford sucks. Every time Angus Reid comes out with their Premier approvals, Ford is at or near the bottom. The public gets it. They’re just completely unconvinced you’d be any better, which is why turnout was so dogshit in 2022.

Now, the NDP will do a lot of Ford Bad, which is even better for us. They have been pretty good at running to be the opposition to Ford. They’ve been downright awful at making the case for themselves. They’re going to do a lot of the Ford Bad messaging, which is great. Let the NDP oppose Ford. You can use your time to make the case for a Liberal government.

Focus On A Collective Message

One of the big complaints about the 2022 Del Duca platform was it felt incoherent in the literal sense of the term - it never cohered into anything of particular significance in a broad sense. It’d be targeted announcements but nothing that made the various announcements work together. Crombie has already started to be better than this - the doctor policy, the tax cut, and the housing policy is good for all timezones (or, I guess, all school districts). You can sell the details differently in Ottawa than in Mississauga (like, hypothetically, wanting to make it easier for Kanata residents to get non-emergency medical treatment without having to go to fucking Carp, for one) while still preaching the same overall message that Ford has failed and Bonnie will deliver.

A lot of times campaigns are drawn to making big, splashy, “regional” announcements - like how every leader’s first visit to Ottawa ends up being to announce transit funding and nothing else - instead of pounding home the same message in Kitchener and Kanata. Now, I’m not saying that you abandon the raw politics of announcing new rail lines or increased GO service or whatever, but make sure you’re also hitting the broad province wide message every day and every stop so it feels like there is a cohesive, coherent message to sell.

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