Newsom Noise: Clown Car Calamity
On A Monumental Waste Of Time
So, there's been some news on the California Recall effort against Gavin Newsom, with official confirmation that he has been subjected to a Recall procedure, and the announcement of another challenger to his position, from Caitlyn Jenner. Another potential candidacy has been floated from actor Randy Quaid, which honestly is just a sentence that makes me want to vomit, but whatever.
Jenner is obviously well known for previous athletic prowesses under her deadname, as well as being a member of the most confusing family tree I've ever had the displeasure of trying to understand, and Quaid is just an asshat in the third worst movie I've ever seen (still mad at you for making us watch National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation that year, Mom), and now at least one of them - if not both - will be running against Gavin Newsom, because apparently the California GOP have the same understanding of how they won the 2003 Recall as, well, my six year old self did when they won it.
Now, the clown car brigade aren't the actual Republican candidates in the sense that the party isn't pushing for Jenner or Quaid, but they will be on the ballot and in the news, swamping out the credible conservative candidates in the race. At least, "credible", if we're willing to stretch the definition of the word credible to such an absurdist degree. Given this, the recall - which is already in a substantial amount of trouble because *checks notes* Joe Biden won California by nearly 30% - is even more doomed than it already was.
You can start and end your analysis of this recall with "Voters won't toss out a Democratic incumbent and risk a Republican in a safe blue state" and not be wrong, just as we wouldn't take a theoretical recall of Kay Ivey very seriously in similarly partisan Alabama. Hell, there is more ink spilled about the chances of Republicans winning the Governorship of California (Biden +29.2%) than Democrats winning the Governorship of Ohio (Trump +8.1%). If this makes sense to you, I need your drug supply.
You can look at the '03 recall and realize that the majority of that victory came from ruby red Orange County and San Diego, which voted for Newsom last time, voted for Biden, and support him still, according to the most recent poll of the state, and you'll also get to the answer that this recall is a waste of time. But honestly, the news about the recall - that Quaid, Jenner, and probably many more celebrities will run - is even more good news for Newsom, because it is just a joke now.
If you're Newsom, you want to make this race strength and stability against a cluster of chucklefuckery, and every single time one of these candidates show up, it makes Newsom's argument - both implicitly and explicitly - stronger. It is very easy to campaign against the recall effort when you can avoid a fight against a single candidate and you can just make it about how you're trying to govern for Californians while you're being distracted by the nonsense of the recall. And every single time you have D-list actors complaining about how prosecutors are corrupt - as if Gavin Newsom is responsible for elected officials at a county level - that argument gets just a little more potent.
Newsom will win again for a myriad of reasons, and this nonsense will not be decisive in any way. But every time the recall becomes less a contest about actual successes and failures of the current incumbent, but a meeting of the worst California has to offer, Newsom gets stronger. I want this to become a Thing - mostly because I need content for this blog - but I know it isn't one. And the clown car calamity that is the list of candidates to replace Newsom just helps kill the recall effort they all say is necessary. Thank God they won't realize that.