One of the things I love most is writing about sports, and I currently lack a place to do that, so I’m dumping a big NHL Round 1 Series-By-Series Preview on here. If you're only here for the politics and don’t care about the hockey, just skip it - there’s plenty of political content out this weekend post debate, be it this weekend’s Scrimshaw Show on the debate that’s coming in a few hours, my column on turnout from Friday, or the column on the polls I’ll have out Saturday night. Let me have this.
I’ll be going through every series, but I’ve got to start with the big one, so let’s just get to it. Note: not all series are as interesting as others, and will get different levels of analysis.
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
The Battle of Ontario is decidedly my most interesting series here, but it’s objectively interesting as much for what it is as for what it isn’t. By every advanced metric this isn’t a traditional 2-7 matchup, but one where (at least by this SportLogiq data) the Sens have been the better team.
Admittedly much to the chagrin of myself, Travis Green has instilled a defensive structure that limits opportunities and has created a sustainable and repeatable playoff structure for the Senators. Their offence is shaky, but fully healthy they should be able to roll three lines that at least in theory can score. Whether it’s with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle together or apart, the top line should be fine. But much more importantly, the new second line of Dylan Cozens paired with Drake Batherson and David Perron has been a revelation since the midseason trade.
Obviously the Leafs have the advantage in top end offensive talent with their core four and Matthew Knies, but it’s the bottom 6 that’s horrifying. Scott Laughton’s been a disaster, Max Domi is still a liability, and the bottom six is unclear on its purpose. On the other side, if the Sens keep Tkachuk and Stützle together, the third line turns into a shutdown line that can limit the already perilous Leafs playoff offence under wraps. If they split Tim and Brady, a Tkachuk-Pinto-Grieg line is far more offensively terrifying than anything the Leafs can handle.
Anthony Stolarz has been a revelation this year, but that’s a double edged sword. I’d rather be betting on the team that’s been better by most advanced metrics this year with a better goalie than the team reliant on Stolarz to be great. If he is, and the Core Four finally score, the Leafs’ll win. But they always find a way to blow it. All in, the Leafs are not in great shape, and this core will be blown up soon enough. The Leafs’ aging defence core won’t be enough to turn back the tide.
Prediction: Sens in 6.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals
I’m worried the Capitals are fraudulent - they caught hot fire early in the season with an unsustainable PDO above 108 and have been less than stellar since. That said, the Canadiens have been worse. For the season, the Habs are second worst in the East by expected goals, and have been negative in every month of the season. The addition of Ivan Demidov is obviously exciting, but the Habs are still fundamentally flawed.
Sam Montembeault is good, but a .902 Save% is not going to be enough to win much. The Habs will need considerable tweaking and internal improvement throughout the summer to maintain the results they got this year, which is possible. But as a matter of this series, they’re overmatched.
The Capitals closed the season well, putting in a solid late charge to keep the East 1 seed, but they are relying on Logan Thompson giving them a .910 Save% and career seasons from Dylan Strome and Pierre Luc-Dubois, as well as a throwback Ovi season. They might be sitting ducks in Round 2, but there’s enough here to win.
(If you saw me screw up Washington’s goalie, I meant Thompson the whole time and just completely blanked when I wrote it.)
Prediction: Capitals in 5.
New Jersey Devils vs. Carolina Hurricanes
I don’t think this series will be that close. The Hurricanes have been the best team in the East by SportLogiq’s expected goals metrics, and the Devils have been negative in two of the last three months as they’ve fought injuries. Jack Hughes’ injury is a disaster for the Devils, even as Dougie Hamilton did manage to return.
I don’t think the Devils are out of it, but Sheldon Keefe hasn’t exactly had great playoff success either. The Devils have enough top end talent even without Hughes to make a run, but I don’t know if they’re deep enough down the middle to take advantage of the Hurricanes. My guess is this series resembles Calgary-Dallas from a few years back, where it is boring, slow, and borderline unwatchable hockey.
If Carolina loses they’re frauds.
Prediction: Hurricanes in 5.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
This is the true classic of Round 1, as we see two titans of the sport fight. The Lightning have momentum and continuity on their side, but the Panthers are a house of cards. If it all comes together, they could be special.
The case for Tampa is simple - they’ve got their team together and have played well, closing the season strongly to finish in second in the Atlantic, and the Panthers are going to be putting this together on the fly. The Lightning made some substantial additions at the trade deadline, adding Bjorkstrand and Gourde while they have the time to integrate.
They also have a goaltending advantage, with Vasilevskiy posting a .921 Save% in the regular season. He's been forgotten about slightly in recent times, but Vasilevskiy is still an elite goalie at a time when the number who can truly qualify as elite are low. When these teams played in 2022, he was stellar, but that was a fundamentally different Panthers team.
The Panthers have more question marks than can be counted, from Bobrovsky’s tendency to be inconsistent and no Spencer Knight as an insurance policy to a backend that is risky. With no Aaron Ekblad till Game 3, they’re at risk. Seth Jones is in theory an upgrade, but he needs to show it on the big stage, and they lost both Montour and OEL from the title team last year on the backend. Matthew Tkachuk is the other variable here, and it seems like he’s playing Game 1.
My instinct, and the bet this series comes down to for me, is that the Tkachuk injury and the Ekblad suspension are actually good for Florida. It’s counterintuitive in a lot of ways, but we know that hockey players are consistently a bit hurt, and playing through it. Two years ago Tkachuk needed surgery after the playoffs, last year both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl did. Having two of the Panthers’ most important players able to rest and heal their nagging injuries while out for other reasons will only help. Unless Vasilevskiy steals this - and that’s totally possible - I trust Florida’s top end talent a lot more than I trust an aging Hedman and Jake Guentzel. (I guess Kucherov and Point are alright.)
Prediction: Panthers in 6.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings
If I pick Edmonton and Los Angeles’ very good defensive scheming and bolstered lineup gets me, good for them. The decision to cut bait on Pierre Luc-Dubois, whatever he’s done in Washington, was decisive and a culture setter for the Kings. I’m sure there are compelling reasons to pick and bet the Kings.
The Oilers certainly haven’t looked like the team they were last year, less so advanced stats darlings. Connor McDavid’s been down by his standards. The team is old and slow. There’s no Ekholm in this series. I get it, I do. But I simply don’t care, because I’m never going to bet against two guys in this spot.
Connor and Leon. McDavid and Draisaitl. If I bet against those two and they win, I will never forgive myself. If LA wins, I’ll sleep easy at night. But when the chips are down the two best players in hockey are on one side, and that’s all that matters.
Prediction: Oilers in 6.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars
Concern about the Jason Robertson injury is a big part of this one, but it’s much more about the Avalanche for me. Since their early season stretch where they couldn’t get a save they’ve been one of the best teams in the NHL, their expected goals numbers are better than Dallas’, and the Stars are a defensive black hole without Miro Heiskanen.
This series comes down to whether Oettinger can steal multiple games, because a defence where Cody Ceci is currently on the top pair isn’t going to stop the sum of jack and shit. The Colorado defence isn’t exactly robust either, and there’s every reason to think this series will produce the highest scoring average of them all. In a similar vein to the previous series, the side with Makar and MacKinnon is the side I want to be on.
If Dallas were fully healthy - and they got Seguin back for Game 82, which is a start - then sure, they’d probably get my pick here, but they’re not. And they’re going to need too much from Oettinger.
Prediction: Avalanche in 6.
St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets
I can’t decide what to do with this series - intellectually I know Winnipeg should win, and I know that “hot” teams coming into the playoffs often lose, but I’m still compelled by the Blues. There’s no rational case against Winnipeg except the fact they’re goalie reliant, but that’s a flimsy argument.
The honest truth is that the Blues are probably going to lose, and it’ll probably be fairly easy especially without Dylan Holloway. But I can’t shake the absolute certainty I feel that they’re going to keep this hot streak going.
Prediction: Blues in 6.
Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights
We’ve all forgotten how hot Minnesota was early in the season before Kaprizov got hurt. They were probably running hot, but it doesn’t really matter - I’m thoroughly unimpressed by Vegas at this point.
They’re an old team that’s lost a lot of talent off the side in understandable but still painful contract shedding. Their efforts to go all in in previous years has depleted the stockpile of young talents, and outside of the (very good) top end talent they’re weak.
Minnesota’s got a better mix of youth and experience, and between Faber and Jiricek and their staples on the back end they’re going to be tough as nails to score on. So long as Kaprizov can score enough for them, they’ll be in every game.
Prediction: Minnesota in 6.
Thanks it’s the best time of year! Stanley Cup Hockey is all thet matters. Look forward to following your take on things. Glad to see Canada back in play. Noticed you did not mention Brad Marchand. Wondering if he will bring it for the Panthers and then retire. Not sure what to make of this picture. I always wondered why no one ever caught him and beat the hell out of him.
Heh.
Leafs in 7
Senators will.benefit from calls early on as Tkachuk wreaks havov, but Ullmark is the real question mark.
Do we get " Mr. .875" or the wall from December? Key for the Leafs is getting pucks in the crease, where Ullmark has trouble tracking.
Ultimately, you hope for a Leafs win as you hope for billionaires to win, but mostly so a new gen of Sens fans can share their parent's experiences of losing to the Leafs.
Disagree on Edmonton having the two best players
Until McDrai win a Cup, that's still Bob and Barkov.
Hopefully Kings in 5 or 6 so Edmonton csn finally mature.