Ontario: Left Consolidation, Half Measures, And The Privilege Of Failure
One Week Out
There are exactly 7 non-Election Day days left before the Ontario electorate makes their choice of who to vote for. There are exactly 7 days for the polls to move (or not), there are exactly 7 days for the models to move (or not), and there are exactly 7 days for the broad anti-Ford left to decide whether they care more about their fucking principles than the risk of Doug Ford winning – or, fuck it, the dead certainty, if the current polls are right. 7. Fucking. Days.
Right now, I have the PCs, on average, at 36.3% of the vote, a number which is not hugely off market consensus, as far as I’m aware. The difference between my model and Bryan’s is tiny (I think maybe 8 seats different, in total, and 5 seats off on aggregate levels), and Fournier’s out to lunch because his model is a steaming pile of dogshit, but we’re all mostly at the same place right now in terms of the polling – Doug Ford is cruising for majority government on about 36% of the vote. (No, Liberals do not get to bitch about the voting system unless you have proof you voted for MMP in 2007.)
The question of whether there is a path to a minority for Ford and a Hung Parliament is easy, in a sense, and very hard in another. The math for one exists, absolutely – but it would come from the parties of the left consolidating in a way there’s been limited evidence there is evidence they will do.
And all I can say is if the left blows this election, then they will own every consequence of four more years of fuckery.
…
I did not consider this outcome possible two months ago.
The idea that Doug Ford would be at 36% was totally believable two months ago, or three months ago, or six months ago, whenever it was I built the Ontario model I am currently using. That was never crazy to me – hell, I even wrote I expected Ford to get a reopening bump such that he ended up at 40% at the beginning of the writ period, before declining. None of the Ford of it all is a fucking surprise to me.
What is also not at all a fucking surprise to me is that nobody wants Andrea Horwath near power in any way, shape, or form, because that woman has had her chances and we all said no. Like, that wasn’t a shock – she couldn’t get above 33% when the choice opposite was Kathleen Wynne and 15 years of corruption scandals (some her fault, some Dalton’s). That the NDP would fall apart was similarly reasonable.
What I didn’t see was this weird stasis where the left just sits here with their dicks in their hands and does nothing as Ford is cruising to majority government. I just plainly didn’t see it coming, and you know what, if you want to hate me for it, go right ahead.
Yes, I was a fan of Steven Del Duca’s wonky policy platform, but the reason I just assumed he would be Premier when the music stopped was because who the fuck else were the left gonna vote for? My fundamental guess at how this campaign would go is basically where we are right now, except that we’d be in this stasis with 2.5 weeks left and then the NDP would fall and the Liberals would rise as voters flocked to the only viable non-Ford. Ford is in the situation I expected him to be in, and the NDP isn’t a viable anti-Ford, and the Liberal surge just isn’t happening, and I got that very, very wrong.
Part of this is that the Greens are polling in the high single digits as opposed to the mid single digits, a fact that won’t actually come true on election day and won’t in and of itself cost the Liberals the election. That said, a point or two of Greens to the Liberals and a couple points from the NDP would slingshot the Liberals into a rough minority position, and if the Liberals end up with my model – 7 seats away from government and, say, 2% on provincial vote away – then the Greens also probably deserve some ire from frustrated liberals.
That said, in a lot of ways this reads as a post-mortem – mostly because I don’t think Steven Del Duca will be Premier anymore, because left consolidation I expected hasn’t happened – but it’s not quite yet. The voters of this province can still prove me wrong again, and prove that the move was just late, not never coming. But it will take something close to a miracle for it to happen.
Doug Ford is polling low enough that the Liberals have gotten most, if not all, of their centrist, left flank back to the Liberals. At this point, if Ford gets a majority, it will be because the left prioritized their desire for purity over a desire to help people. If the left consolidates, we’re in a race. If they don’t, Ford’s back in majority.
I’m pretty sure Ford’s winning in a week. There’s 7 days to prove me wrong. If you claim to care about decency and helping people, swallow your pride and accept half a loaf. If not, you’ll get nothing at all, and while I might love me some Sinatra, All Or Nothing is an amazing song to dance to, and not a fucking life motto. There’s 7 days. Prove me wrong, or don’t. But one week out, a Liberal surge at the NDP and Greens’ expense is the only way this province is going to avoid four more years of this bullshit.
Do it or don’t. I’ll be fine either way, but that’s where this election is. 7 days. Time to put up or shut up
Hey Evan, I have been enjoying following along with your writing throughout this Ontario Election. It is interesting quite how this consolidation on the left hasn't happened. Let me wildly speculate why that might be
1. Del Duca- I'm sure he is a very intelligent man but he has the charisma of day old fries in the fridge. I don't think you'd find many who would follow him to a pot of gold never mind to the Premier office.
2. Money/ Ground Game- Liberals don't have the cash to splash like the Cons do, and I don't know how good their 'ground game' is. I live in a seat they are projected (338 of course) to gain from the NDP but I've only seen NDP knocking on my door, and they visited twice! To be fair, this is only my own experience so far.
3. Teflon Doug - Comparison is the theft of joy they say, it's also the theft of better here. I think he is viewed as less of a societal threat than his federal counterparts, as he doesn't indulge (much) in right-wing nut baggery. This is also a vote on how he handled covid. I think it's viewed that Ontario did okay. People look to the states with countless death toll, to Quebec with their curfews and to the UK with partygate. Compared to that, Doug did fine on the surface.
Trying to scare people into strategic voting is a harder ask here. He also has a Boris like ability to pass the buck successfully, opposition haven't put a glove on him
4. No punches given - Doug was a big fan of Trump until the pandemic. Their are clips of him praising trump. That should be everywhere, repeatedly. Housing has gone up extremely during his time in office. He has cut education, the nurses in this province are on their knees, he fucked up our renewable energy strategy, he cut the minimum wage and he sat on Billions from the fed whilst small businesses suffered through covid. Yet I'm not really hearing impactful criticism on this.
5. Liberal fatigue - People have voted strategically for the Liberals twice now in the past few years for Fed elections. That was Trudeau asking for that, who ...y'know has a bit more going for him than SDD in terms of speaking to an electorate.
6. NDP are mid - I don't think AH was going to rally the public to the NDP's side and that's not a bold view to have.
7. NDP are mid - Sure AH is a dud, but I'd say she has more of a connection to voters than SDD. Sure NDP campaign approach has been mostly unremarkable from a central perspective (which is...a theme these past few years). However I speculate that their ground game is far better than the Liberals. The limp effort by OLP hasn't been enough to drag Dipper voters back. AH was never going to improve from 2018 but perhaps the NDP voter is a lot firmer provincially, especially with plenty of incumbents. If the NDP take places like St Catharines again, what do we put that down to?
8. Headline polices - I think trying to outdo DoFo in Gimmickary was a mistake by SDD, and has given a bit of ground to the NDP, real brand choices. Combination of Fed and Provincial NDP push has made them the party that champions Dentalcare and Pharamacare. Whilst the OLP are pushing $1 transit. Eh.
That's my lot, Ford more years will happen, and it looks like it has been an absolute cake walk. Honestly his campaign and overall PR game is above everything else. Knows when to disappear, very successful in framing debates, rhetoric which although not always bright, does punch through. Even in Coalition, OLP and the ONDP don't have that.
Having said that. one wonders, if Doug was on a boat in Lake Ontario this entire time doing nothing, would we have that much of a difference in the result we will see next week?
Cheers.
My feeling is that it's the Liberal's choice for leader. A rather dull personality, too much baggage, and the gnawing memory of the McGuinty-Wynne years still fresh in people's minds, despite the prospect of another 4 years of Ford. Some people simply cannot think crtically to overlook those things and instead think with their emotions. It's unfortunate because the best we can hope for is to hold Ford to a minority to limit the destruction he can wield.