O'Toole Out: What's Next, And Scrimshaw's Paradox

On What Today's Events Mean

Well, given O’Toole just got his ass kicked by his caucus, the question of the next leader of the opposition is now here, and as much fun as this clusterfuck will be, it’s not a particularly interesting one. The problem with all of this is that any leader who can get through the Conservative Party’s membership cannot win the next election, and it doesn’t matter whether it’s Skippy or Leslyn Lewis or the MP for Calgary-Oklahoma or whoever. And this is the conversation that actually has to be had.

Erin O’Toole will be more moderate than the candidate who gets through the Conservative membership next time, and when that’s the case – whether it’s another Central Canadian frauding as a True Blue Patriot or an actual crazy person – and they will either go into the next election with a manifesto that is less electable to the general electorate, or they’ll try the same Scheer/O’Toole bullshit of running right during the leadership election and trying an insincere pivot to the centre. Either way, they’ll lose the next election.

This is the fundamental question that the Conservative Party has to answer now – what is it for, and what is it trying to do? In nominating two candidates who appeal to the right, but who were willing to try a pivot to win the general, they wasted two electoral cycles before they finally had a chance to answer the most important question for their future – can a staunchly right wing approach work? I think I know the answer, but I don’t know for sure, but whatever I, or any other Laurentian Elite assholes, think, the Tory Party has not allowed themselves to test whether what they desperately want to do will actually work.\

The best thing for the Conservative Party would be to nominate Leslyn Lewis, let her run into the brick wall called her pro-life views on abortion, and then get destroyed in the next election, before rebuilding under a moderate, but unless the party has that loss, they’ll always hold out hope that they could win the way they wanted to. Hell, I knew I was gay in 2008, but at some point in my youth I slept with a woman, because I was desperate to try and convince myself that I could do that. Once I did that, it was only then I could fully accept that I was gay, and solely gay. It was a necessary step to accepting the fate in front of me, and here again, the Tories need their version.

The Conservatives want to nominate a True Blue right winger, and they’re stuck between doing what they want to do and what they’re told they should do, and this problem has led them to try and find the actual answer to this problem. It’s the necessary step, because even if I’m very confident that running Lewis or some right wing nut job would end up in disaster, they need to see it themselves before they are going to believe it, and they won’t believe it until they happen.

What do I think will happen? I expect it to be the MP from my back door to be the next Tory Leader, but I frankly don’t give a shit if he is or isn’t, because none of this matters. This site cares about electoral outcomes, and we know the outcome before any of this starts. We know the Tories are going to lose the next election no matter what leader they choose, because any leader who gets through the membership cannot win a general election. Call it Scrimshaw’s Paradox (or don’t, that’s really arrogant of me), but it’s true. The Tories cannot win the next election, and their only hope of winning one anytime soon is if they become a radically different party than they are.

Remember, periods of Conservative government in this country are historically rare, and almost always come at the tail end of a deeply unpopular Liberal government. There have been 4 Conservative governments elected since the end of the First World War – RB Bennett’s government at the height of the Depression, Diefenbaker’s at the end of 22 years of Liberal rule, Mulroney’s after the Constitutional battles and a decade of stagflation, and Harper’s turn after AdScam. (Joe Clark technically counts too, yes, but if you do nothing, accomplish nothing, and only serve 9 months, do you really count?)

Conservatives Governments either win at the tail end of mass crisis or after an entire generation in the wilderness. This is how Canada works, because Canada isn’t a Conservative or conservative country, and that fact will ensure the re-election of the Liberals, whether under Trudeau or Freeland, whenever the country goes back to the polls. And that is true whether it’s Skippy, Lewis, or the member for Calgary-Oklahoma.