Scrimshaw Spotlight: (North) Carolina In My Mind
On A Senate Race Democrats Desperately Need
North Carolina 2022 might be the most important Senate race of all the ones up in 2022, because a Democrat loss there means that they enter the 2024 Senate cycle as underdogs to retain the chamber if there are still only 100 Senators. North Carolina is, almost assuredly, Democratic seat 53 if they win it, with Pennsylvania seat 51 and Wisconsin seat 52 - both Biden states are more likely to go blue than this Trump won state, after all, and if they're in good enough shape to win the state, they're not losing Georgia or Arizona or Nevada. (There is some 1% equity in New Hampshire just entirely throwing the baby out with the bathwater, but I don't care.) Can Democrats win, and if they do, what will it look like?
North Carolina is the hardest race on the board to handicap, a state that has a very compelling case for both sides. The GOP case is that the rurals aren't as blood red as Georgia, their cities aren't as big, and the GOP keeps winning statewide races narrowly, no matter the environment and the circumstances. It's compelling, or at least compelling-ish, because it sounds like the argument that a lot of people made in Georgia in 2020, which was (kind of) true in the General Election and false in the runoffs. And that's where the case for Democratic optimism comes in - they've lost the state for three straight Presidential cycles, and lost the 2010, 2014, 2016, and 2020 Senate seats - in large part because of factors that won't come again in 2022.
We'll start with Kay Hagan, who ran a flawless re-election bid in 2014 but was dragged down by the general shittiness of the year and the environment, and the way the White House refused to give minority voters any real reason to go to the polls, and that sunk her. There was nothing she could have done, and Hagan losing was a heartbreaker, but it's moreso one because of the fact that she lost a race because of factors outside her control.
The 2012 loss was just a function of a tightening national environment between 2008 and 2012, and Mitt Romney being a better candidate than John McCain for the white enclave suburbs. Given that Obama romped home nationally anyways and there was no Senate race, it was sort of water off their backs. And then, 2016 and 2020 were lost because Trump managed to activate latent white, non-degree turnout to an incredible degree. We don't have a figure I would describe as reliable for the electorate in North Carolina in 2016 because of issues with the Edison exits that year, but in 2014 35% of the NC electorate was white without a degree, and 39% were white with a degree. Those numbers in 2020 were 44% white non-degree and 31% white degree holders, a radical shift.
What happened? Well, it's the same thing that happened everywhere - Donald Trump was actually a good candidate, and the electorate he created in North Carolina was actually really good for Republicans. The question is, of course, does it hold without him on the ballot? If Georgia is any indicator, no. If the same turnout pattern from the Georgia General Election to the January runoffs happens in North Carolina in 2022, then the GOP are in huge trouble - unless they can claw back some of Biden's gains in the metros. Can Democrats get that kind of boost? I think so, if they nominate the right candidate.
This map, courtesy of J Miles Coleman of Sabato's Crystal Ball, is a fairly blunt instrument, a precinct (and county) map of the 2020 Presidential election in North Carolina, but it shows the pockets of Democratic strength well. It's the urban pockets - Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham - and then the northeastern blue where rural Black voters live. Those areas in the northeast are crucial, because if you want to win North Carolina as a Democrat, this is why they aren't able to do it right now - they're bleeding there. Looking through some of those counties, you see a 6% swing against Biden compared to 2016 in Warren and Halifax Counties, a 4% swing against in Vance County, and a 5.5% swing in Northampton, all blue counties comparable to the rural southwest of Georgia - an area that swung left between the general election and the runoffs in Georgia, because the relative power of the Black vote in these counties increased as Trumpian low propensity whites didn't turn out again.
Banking on Republicans not to turn out is a bit of a passive strategy, so Democrats will need to actively go and win the race - which, fortunately, they can do. At least, they can if they nominate Cheri Beasley, the former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court. A Black woman, Beasley gives Democrats the best chance to activate Black turnout and give Democrats the turnout that they need - and routinely used to get. In 2014, the massacre of Democrats nationally, the share of the North Carolina electorate that was Black was 21%. Now, it's 19%, because as Trump turned out new voters, we didn't match that.
Democrats could go backwards in the west of the state still, definitely, but I'm not sure they will in a midterm, as compared to a Trump year where they got record turnout. And yet, the focus is on the room Democrats still have to potentially lose in the state, without focusing on how much they could gain. The urban centers, and their suburbs, are nowhere close to tapped out in terms of Democratic gains, and the rural Black areas have been neglected for too long - investments there, with a Black candidate at the top of the ticket, could pay off in spades.
North Carolina will be extremely competitive, and Democrats should not expect to win the seat by any means, but with three probable Senate losses coming in 2024, they need to win three of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina (in 2022) or Texas (in 2024) to keep 50 seats in the Senate - which is only a majority if they win the 2024 Presidential election. This race isn't a luxury, it's a potential majority decider for a theoretical Biden second term (or a Harris first term), and Democrats need to prioritize it, and Beasley's candidacy. For everyone who loves to lionize Stacey Abrams, here's our chance to do it again - North Carolina is the battleground of 2022, and their decision may determine Senate control after 2024, for good or ill. The stakes couldn't be higher, but the path to a Democratic North Carolina exists - and we need to follow it.