#ScrimshawScrapbook: Canada Update Ten Days Out

News And Notes From Around The Campaign

(Every so often in a campaign, there’s enough topics that deserve more than a tweet but don’t deserve a full column. What should be done with this? Well, let’s open the Scrimshaw Scrapbook and talk through some things.)

Will Jagmeet Make O’Toole PM?

There has been some minor consternation from the Liberals about Jagmeet Singh’s refusal to explicitly say that he will not make Erin O’Toole Prime Minister after this election, after he did in 2019 after the video of Andrew Scheer comparing gay marriage to dog’s legs (or some shit? I don’t really want to Google the details) came out again. Last night in the post-debate scrum, he once again refused to explicitly say he wouldn’t work with the Tories in a hung Parliament. So, should Liberals and the broader left be worried? No.

When I was at my previous stop, we had Mainstreet CEO Quito Maggi on the podcast, and while we were chatting before the podcast, we talked about that Jagmeet comment, and whether it would hurt him or not. My contention was that it helped him in Liberal-NDP battles in places like Toronto and Ottawa, because it meant they could feel safe dumping Trudeau without getting Scheer, but Quito made the point that it was Singh implicitly conceding it was a wasted vote, because he was playing for third place. This time, as ludicrous as it seems, Singh is playing to win, and these sorts of quotes are a piece with that strategy - we rule nothing in or out because we have no idea what position we may be in.

It’s also highly unlikely the NDP would ever allow Jagmeet to prop up a Tory government if the Liberals and NDP add up to 170 members, because as much as the Dippers claim to hate the Liberals, and pretend that they’re the same as the Tories, they know they’re not. The membership, both in the broader membership but also inside the Parliamentary Party, would revolt if this happened. Also, for what it’s worth, a person who could be described as a senior New Democrat told me he “can’t imagine” propping up the CPC. I’d save the hysterics.

How’s Quebec Looking?

The main broadstrokes of this campaign have been the same since it was called - the Liberals are losing seats in English Canada and are hoping to offset those losses in Quebec. I’ve been very bullish on their chances of doing so the entire time, and I’m remaining that way.

I’ve heard reports from two Liberal campaigns in Quebec that their voteshares are going to be higher than 2019, from their tracking. The information I’ve heard from both campaigns is that they’re tracking for a 3-5% increase in their vote share off the last election, more in line with their 2015 performances. These campaigns are confident the Bloc are down from the last election, which would be consistent with the public polls. None of this is in itself means all that much - either the campaign information could be incorrect, things could change, all that - but it is notable that Liberals are willing to express confidence in their prospects in La Belle Province, given the lack of Liberal confidence elsewhere.

Ontario, And PPC Risks

My home riding is Kanata-Carleton, and the thing about this riding is the name is apt. It is a riding of two ends - the growing Ottawa suburb of Kanata, also known as “where the Sens arena is” in the common parlance (it’s technically in Stittsville but whatever), and then a bunch of rural areas out west until you hit Arnprior, where Cheryl Gallant’s fiefdom of fascism reigns in Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke. The reason it’s worth noting that Gallant’s seat is next door is that the non-Kanata parts of the district don’t feel distinctly different from Gallant’s seat, and to be fairly explicit here, I would never feel safe being open about being gay in Arnprior or Renfrew, places I’ve spent plenty of time in. In the same way, I’d never feel safe in Carp, or much of the west of the seat.

The seat is Liberal because there are more people in Kanata, bluntly, and because the Liberals are doing well with the educated, wealthy suburbanites in the two rich neighbourhoods. Trust me, I know these people - I went to high school with their kids, I know the type. Hell, I’ve played 3 or 4 rounds of golf at the fancy private golf course in Kanata because either friends of mine or friends of my mothers have been members, and I’ve been able to tag along for the occasional round. If the Liberals are to win this seat, it’ll be because Kanata stays loyal - or, because the rurals don’t stay loyal to the Tories.

If you believe the polls, the PPC are spiking, and potentially even so in Ontario, and if that’s true, the PPC are absolutely going to surge in the western half of this district. It’s classic PPC territory, but for once, it’s appended to an actual marginal seat, meaning that they could actually, meaningfully fuck the Tories. I’m cautious on how much the PPC vote will actually hurt the Tories, given my prior is that the PPC will spike most in safe Tory seats with lower vaccination rates and higher distrust in institutions. But here, the Tories are in real trouble, and while it is unlikely that this individual seat will be notable in determining government, if the Liberals hang on here, it could be illustrative of the problem Erin O’Toole has to face now - doing not enough to stop bleeding on his right, while not getting back enough soft Liberals who voted for Gordon O’Connor four times in 7 years and have elected a PC MPP for my entire life.

Interestingly, a recent Mainstreet seat poll of Kanata-Carleton shows the PPC going nowhere fast, a notable finding on the debate on whether the PPC is actually going to make the surge that some are suggesting. Who knows whether they’ll make an impact or not, but it is notable that this should be friendly terrain for them.