#ScrimshawSix: Mailbag!
On The NDP, the PCPO, And The Maple Leafs (?!)
The Department of pithy intros is taking the week off, so, I don’t know, it’s a mailbag Friday.
Will The NDP Rise To Start Acting Like A Mature Primary Opposition Party?
Short answer: no.
Longer answer: no, because they don’t want to.
Jagmeet Singh is a joke of a leader and I’m of the belief he won’t lead the NDP into the next election, but the fact that Jagmeet Singh won 23 and then 24 seats in English Canada and is still somehow NDP leader while Tom Mulcair was booted as NDP leader for the cardinal sin of winning 28 in English Canada is absurdist nonsense masquerading as logic, but it’s proof that they don’t want to make strategically optimal decisions, they just wanna enjoy the vibes.
And, honestly, I’m kinda cool with that? I think that parties can define success on whatever terms they want, but there’s a big difference between the NDP being a success on their terms (TikTok trends and, like, vibes, brah) and them being a success in terms of helping workers and actually doing shit. If so many of the NDP’s strongest supporters weren’t trying to pretend Jagmeet was good at this – if they were making a more explicit “I think he’s fun so I don’t give a shit he’s crap at his job” argument, I’d hate him and the party less.
(Reminder: I voted for this chucklefuck last time, I get to be this mean.)
If The Ontario PCs Lose In June Who Might Replace Ford (If He Doesn’t Try And Stay On)
A lot of this will depend strictly on who makes it back to the Legislature, obviously, but there’s probably more names than I’ve got, but I’ll give three names I could see making a run.
Michael Chong: The current Foreign Affairs critic in Ottawa, Chong is well respected and a moderate who could run into the same struggles as Christine Elliott every time she ran for the leadership, but he has a brain, and if the PCs come to accept that the Ford government was only won because the Liberals were singularly unpopular, and therefore that the last time they won an election under “normal” conditions was 1999, they might go for Chong.
Carolyn Mulroney: Look, I’m not saying this would be smart, but she is the closest thing to a high-profile Cabinet Minister this government has that’s running again, and her tolerance to hang around Queens Park as just the Shadow Minister for Tourism or whatever probably won’t be that high. Also, her last name and her connections means that there’ll be a group of people who want her to run.
Evan Scrimshaw: I mean, I couldn’t do worse than these chucklefucks, could I?
What Possesses Fringe Tories Like Roman Baber and Scott Aitchison To Run For The Leadership?
Had you ever heard of either of those two people before that sentence? I’m not even sure I know who Aitchison is (update: I had the wrong guy in my head). And now, if they run, you will.
When I worked on the Hill in 2016, I once went to an after work mixer where, amongst others, Bardish Chagger was there, and she was regaling me with her theory that Pierre Poilievre was gonna run for the leadership to replace Harper, and I remember saying to her that I didn’t see it – he was going to wait, sit out this campaign, and then run next time, which almost came true and didn’t. The reason that story’s relevant is that every choice – when to run, when not to – is sole calculation designed to either boost your profile or save your bullet for another time. Leslyn Lewis has gone from a nobody to an MP in 2 years, and Baber probably wants a Parliamentary seat, and Aitchison probably wants more people to know who he is.
Over/Under On A Skippy Scandal?
I really don’t think so, and I think everyone’s let their imaginations run a little wild the last couple of years.
In late 2019, I got some intelligence about the starting gates on a Tory leadership race, from a reliable poll of the Tory membership. The details are kinda fuzzy to me now, but they asked about everyone who might possibly run, and Poilievre was at like 2%, 3%, something like that. A few weeks later, he claims family reasons and drops out from his role as the presumptive non-MacKay, and everyone has been kinda-sorta wondering why he didn’t run last time and is this time. Me? I think it’s pretty simple.
I think Skippy paid for a poll himself, got results similar to the poll I heard details of, and decided not to run a race he didn’t think he could win, and he then spent the next two years working to boost his profile and his Conservative credentials, and now he thinks he can win. No scandal, just smarts.
What’s The Smartest Transition Of Power In The Liberal Party?
I don’t think Justin will pull a Pierre and leave with a 12% approval months before another election. I’m sorta leaning towards Justin announcing his departure in January, letting the leadership race run through the January-June 2023 Parliamentary sitting, an August leadership race, and then Freeland has a month to transition, swear in a new Cabinet, and then has time to change the direction as needed, prep for a Budget, and then make whatever choices on election timing she wants.
That said, given I don’t think the Tories can nominate a leader who will beat Trudeau, I don’t think it’s a particularly important decision in terms of electability.
What Is Wrong With The Leafs?
Okay, in fairness, I added this one myself because I want to talk about this and it’s my site, damn it. Holy fuck they’re in trouble.
Like, I don’t want to pile on, but the Leafs have found themselves in a problem without an answer, because Jack Campbell is hurt and has been bad and Peter Mrazek sucks, but if you could get sizable upgrades for not much against the cap and not much in terms of assets, the Leafs wouldn’t be here right now, and they are, without a way out.
The Leafs gotta trade Holl, Dermott, and a 1st for whatever right handed defenseman they can get, and then pray to God that Campbell gets back to, fuck his All-Star performance from November, just be league-average. Like, Matthews is probably winning the Hart, he’s definitely winning the Rocket, and the Leafs are cruising for a first round exit. Again.
Hey, I have sympathy for your plight – I had to trust Ray Emery and Craig Anderson and then even older Craig Anderson with my playoff happiness all my life. I get it, but man, I can’t imagine it’s fun to be a Leafs fan these days.
I see this take on the NDP a lot, and I wish people would put some more facts behind it, so I could understand the position better.
I mean if I could go back a decade to 2012 near the start of Harper's majority, and say tell an NDP supporter that the next decade would bring full legalization of marijuana, hugely expanded child tax credit, expanded CPP program, increased federal funding for transit, significant federal funding for childcare and affordable housing, paid sick leave for federal employees, an additional paid holiday, an end of the deficit obsession, a fiscal response to a pandemic so strong that people's income actually went up, that the recent (in 2012) increase in OAS/GIS eligibility age from 65 to 67 would be reversed, an end to stagnation and a period of significant minimum wage increases across the country and finally a phase out of coal across the country and a carbon tax of $50/ton, scheduled to increase to $170/ton?
I guess the NDP supporter would want to know what the NDP had done to turn things around and achieve such miracles in just a decade. Of course, you can say the Liberals did all this, and you would be correct, but arguably the whole reason for the NDP to exist is to push the Liberals to the left (along with giving the country another option when the folks in charge give us a US style Harper vs Ignatieff false choice).
So, I'm not trying to be difficult, just spell out what it is you think the NDP could / should have achieved but haven't to help workers in Canada, or what they should be doing now on that front that they are not doing. I'll grant you national pharmacare, they've pushed on this but without success, but what else are people thinking of?