Sinema's Pressure Point
How Democrats Can Push Sinema Left
Kyrsten Sinema is scared shitless of a primary challenge from Ruben Gallego.
He might not have filed any paperwork, but Gallego has clearly positioned himself as a Sinema alternative if and when the time comes, mostly by avoiding any moves which could lead to issue or complaint from the Arizona Democratic Party and establishment. Why has Gallego maintained a low profile, done absolutely nothing to suggest he would even consider running for Governor, and frankly why has he done precisely nothing to dispel the notion of a Senatorial bid? It's not like Gallego isn't aware of the fire the Senior Senator from his state takes on a daily basis, and yet, there has been no attempt to shield her.
Gallego almost ran in 2020 for the seat now occupied by Mark Kelly, before avoiding that primary and earning the gratitude of a now-sitting Senator for making his life easy. Gallego is the proper combination of ambitious and smart, the combination that any successful challenger would need to win (and that Joe Kennedy, the most recent high profile Democratic primary challenger, didn't possess the second half of). Gallego isn't an idiot, and he can see the writing on the wall if Democrats hold the three main statewide offices (as, hopefully, Katie Hobbs will pull off next year) - it would be primary Sinema, primary Kelly, or stay in the House until next decade. I have serious doubts he's going to wait that long.
Sinema is aware of this fact, too, which is why she makes a case for the filibuster in the Washington Post that is about how the filibuster protects Democratic priorities like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. She is trying to convince her voters that her position is correct by framing it as a way to lock in previously won advances for progressive values, which is ludicrous but whatever. She's plainly feeling the heat, because even in that OP-Ed she said a debate is warranted, a clear bone to progressives and liberals. Throw in the fact that her approvals with Democrats are fairly mediocre - a net approval of +28 amongst Democrats, compared to Mark Kelly's net approvals with Democrats being +60, according to a recent OH-Predictive Insights poll - and you get the recipe for a competitive primary.
I'm on the record supporting a primary after her bullshit over the minimum wage vote in March, but I'm also on board with it because Arizona isn't a state where we have to run conservative Democrats to win in 2024. We needed her in 2018, and her service in making Schumer Majority Leader is appreciated, but her service will not be needed moving forward if she refuses to actually enact the agenda she was elected to vote for. If she is truly willing to continue to let Mitch McConnell veto every non-spending bill, get out of the way, get on a plane to Arizona, and don't come back.
The question of how to influence Sinema is one that a lot of people are asking, because while flipping Sinema isn't enough without Joe Manchin, it is still necessary progress if Democrats want to protect voting rights, make DC a state, strengthen union protection, and many other agenda items. People despair at the idea there's nothing to be done, and they're mostly right, at least about Manchin. The views of very online lefties will not make Joe Manchin suddenly see the light on filibuster reform, and he is in the reddest of red states. There is no public influence that can move him, so getting him to move will require Biden sitting in a room and getting a deal done. Fortunately, there is a way to pressure Sinema.
Candidates can carry over funds from election to election, and funds donated to Ruben Gallego for the purposes of a Congressional election can be used for a run for another federal office - namely, the US Senate. I usually refrain from suggestions on how people should donate their cash unless asked - except to get mad at people who donate to obvious grift campaigns like Amy McGrath in Kentucky - but in this case, an exception to that rule is applicable. If you want to scare Kyrsten Simena, donate to Ruben Gallego.
Obviously, this strategy will not work if just a handful of people do it, but if Democrats want to scare Sinema into ditching her dogmatic adherence to a Jim Crow relic, there is an actual path to doing so - donating to a Democrat whose very existence is a threat to her career. A large campaign warchest is an asset in DC, and in the same way that a large incumbent warchest can deter a challenger, a well funded opponent would have the effect that many hope a Sinema challenge - successful or not - would have, that is to say of moving her left.
Sinema is movable on this because politicians, especially ones who just got to the Senate, don't want to give that job up. Remember, Sinema was a former Green Party anti-Iraq War lefty who has ended up as a centrist. I'm not going to say that political advantage did all of that work, but it's hardly surprising that an ambitious politician moved her politics as her ambitions changed, nor is she the first, or only, to do so. She wants to stay in the Senate, and she thinks the best way to do that is to pander to the right in the mold of Manchin. She's wrong, and it is incumbent on everyone who would like to persuade her she's wrong about this to use the lever of power that we have to do so, and that's donating to Gallego. Sinema is a roadblock on the path to progress at this point, and she can either get on board or get out of the way. If she won't get there herself, we'll need to push, and the path is right there, if we want to take it.