Stanley Cup Preview: 6 Questions

Edmonton’s Revenge Or Florida Domination?

I meant to do this for the middle two rounds but the post-election period was a fucking blur. That said, this is still my site, so we’re getting a Stanley Cup Preview. (For those who are minded to complain that this isn’t about politics, two things; I’ll have a column on the Throne Speech amendment and House politics this afternoon, and I’ll have a more dedicated home for my sports work in time so that my politics diehards don’t have to see this. But for now, this is what I got.)

Last year, I correctly picked Panthers in 7 pre-series, before pussying out before Game 7 and changing the pick. This year, it’s the same matchup but with very different squads, but it’ll come down to many of the same questions as last year. When I used to do these for my now-defunct former employer, I loved a good ol’ 6 Key Questions format, so let’s do a #ScrimshawSix on the Stanley Cup Final, once more for the road.

Can Draisaitl Be More Effective This Year?

The short answer is that it would hard for Draisaitl to be worse. 3 assists in 7 games wasn’t good enough from the German, and while it’s all good to point out the rib and wrist surgeries he needed after the playoffs, the production speaks for itself. But in a sense, the utter lack of useful Leon last time is the best case for the Oilers this year.

With Draisaitl limited last year, the Panthers were able to effectively control their matchups in the four games in Florida, sticking Forsling-Ekblad and Barkov’s line on McDavid and allowing less talented defensive personnel to focus on Draisaitl. It worked, because Draisaitl was too injured to do anything about it. Now? They can’t do that nearly as well. The Panthers’ second pair is weakened defensively, swapping Seth Jones for Brandon Montour, and Draisaitl should be much better. After a weak second round that he bailed out in a couple of key moments, Draisaitl bounced back against Dallas, scoring 2 goals and 7 assists against the Stars while looking much better. The long break between Vegas and Dallas seems to have done him well, and if he improves on last year’s performance, all else being equal, Edmonton should win.

Can The Oilers Defend 3 Offensive Lines?

The return of Mattias Ekholm and the Bouchard-Ekholm pairing is a sizable boost to the Oilers, but the bigger boost has been the performance of the Oilers other defencemen in his absence. Last year in the Final, without Bouchard on the ice, the Oilers only had 35% of 5-on-5 scoring chances.

This year, the Oilers bolstered their blueline, with Jake Walman and John Klingberg stepping into crucial roles and Darnell Nurse proving to be merely overpaid and not actively bad. The Panthers’ third line, which now features Brad Marchand in last year’s Tarasenko role, has outscored teams 10-2 in these playoffs and has a 58% expected goals rate, is going to be a crucial matchup.

It’s likely, at least in Edmonton, that the Oilers will run their third line of Skinner-Henrique-Frederic against Rodrigues-Barkov-Reinhart, which should be able to grind that line to a low event draw. McDavid and co against a clearly wounded Tkachuk line should be fine, leaving Kane-Draisaitl-Kapanen to deal with that third line. It would be the best line they’ve had to face in these playoffs, and more importantly it would be the hardest defensive task.

Especially against the Leafs, Toronto’s lack of meaningful offensive depth meant that Lundell and Marchand were able to tee off offensively, cheating for opportunities and generally hunting forward. Against Draisaitl and friends, you’re fucked if you do that, but also Draisaitl is far better defensively than his rep. He shut down Jack Eichel when needed in Round 2, and the move to put Drai into a more shutdown role while managing whatever nagging injury he had from the Kings series flipped Games 4 and 5 of that series.

Unless Darnell Nurse turns into a pumpkin, that vaunted Florida third line is about to run into a wall.

Will The Real Stuart Skinner Please Step Up?

Skinner has been an enigma this postseason, conceding four or more goals in all four of the Oilers’ playoff losses and conceding one goal or fewer in all but one of his playoff wins. Even in Game 5 against Dallas, where he gave up 3 in a winning effort, I think everybody would admit the Oilers took their foot off the gas due to their big lead.

If we get the Skinner of the LA series or even of Game 3 against Vegas, then Florida’s likely going to win. But since that first game after coming back into the net against Vegas, he’s put up 5 games of 1 goal or less, and his only true stinker was a 3-1 lead going into the third where the Oilers committed a procession of penalties. He’s been very good since coming back into the net.

One of the things often said about Skinner is that the Oilers don’t play well in front of him, that they don’t trust him and there’s a certain discomfort with him back there. You felt it early on against LA, and there did seem to be a slightly freer attitude once Pickard came into the net. That said, that’s just not really true anymore - the back to back Vegas shutouts did a lot for Skinner, and for the team’s belief in him.

Obviously he can turn back into a pumpkin, but Panthers proponents should wind their necks in. You’re trusting Sergei Fucking Bobrovsky, someone who was literally the fucking backup in 2023 at the start of Florida’s first Cup run. Goaltending is voodoo at the best of times, and it’s especially voodoo in the playoffs. Skinner might suck, but Jordan Binnington sucks too and he’s got a Cup and played the best period of his life in OT at the Four Nations. Skinner’s got the vibes on his side at the very least, and honestly that might be more important than anything else.

How Badly Will Zach Hyman Be Missed?

Hyman is the other big story in this series, at least of things we know for sure. It’s pretty certain he’s out for the whole series, and in years past it would be a five alarm fire for the Oilers. Now, it’s less of one.

An effective Evander Kane and Corey Perry’s strength in the Hyman net front role on PP1 reduce Hyman’s necessity to the core, and having Jeff Skinner available to play a role up and down the lineup gives the Oilers options if they need a Hyman facsimile that isn’t Perry. Obviously the Oilers would rather have Hyman, but having lost PP1 time already this playoffs this isn’t a crisis for the Oilers.

Home Ice?

The biggest difference from last year has to be Draisaitl’s health, but second on that list is home ice. Last year the Oilers went 2-1 at home and 1-3 in Florida, including the essential Game 7. The Oilers are 6-1 in Edmonton in these playoffs, with their only loss being against the Stars in Game 3 against Vegas (the now-hilarious Draisaitl own goal).

The Panthers have been elite on the road, going 8-2 through the playoffs on the road and “only” 4-3 at home. That said, I wouldn’t take too much from the splits. The honest truth is that the Stars and Hurricanes were fancy stat frauds and the Leafs and Kings were choke artists. (I still have no idea how good Tampa and Vegas were, honestly.) The Oilers having home ice will enable them to move McDavid off of Barkov and Forsling-Ekblad and use Draisaitl’s line to choke off the Panthers’ third line in a potential Game 7, and that’s hugely valuable.

Who Wins?

I don’t think this is close.

The Panthers are good, and they’ve scored very well in the East playoffs, but they’re probably about as good a team as they were last year. The Oilers are significantly better than the Finals team Florida played.

The fact that the Oilers got a shell of Leon Draisaitl in last year’s Finals and still took it 7 games is a testament to the talent of McDavid, but also the fact that all else being equal, the Oilers are the better team. With a much healthier Draisaitl and home ice, this is Edmonton’s series to win, and they will.

Yes, Hyman’s out, but anybody who has watched Tkachuk sees that he’s this year’s Draisaitl - a shell of themselves with a June 29th surgery already scheduled. The Panthers have also played in three straight finals, and the last team to do so (Tampa 2020-2022) lost at the third time of asking. Fundamentally, they aren’t as good as the Oilers.

Could the Panthers win? Sure. Skinner could turn into a pumpkin. The refs could be bad at this in any number of ways. Hockey is inherently a game that is less predictable than others. But this is the Oilers’ Cup to lose.

Oilers in 5.