Tariffs, And Conservatives Panic

On Harper’s Intervention And Tariff Reality

It is … unedifying, to say the least, to play politics with a national crisis. Whatever your thoughts on Donald Trump, this administration, and more are, this is a national crisis. With a stroke of the pen Donald Trump has ended the post Cold War economic model of three countries, ended the masterpiece at the heart of three decades of sublime economic growth, all in the cause of nothing. It is a tragedy, in every sense of the word.

Like the great tragedies, it is fundamentally pointless. We are not achieving an outcome in this, because it is the Seinfeld of trade wars. It is a pissing contest of petulance, a serenade of stupidity, a masterclass in malignancy. It is a disaster, self-inflicted and without modern parallel. Those looking to Brexit for a comp will find it missing - European membership imposed conditions that, while in my view worth tolerating for the economic benefits, were understandably problematic. This is insanity of the highest order.

That Pierre Poilievre wants to play politics at such a time is fine - this is a political crisis on some level and it is his right to make political arguments. That he is doing so and doing so badly is what is notable. On Monday, Stephen Harper decided to wade into the fight about Jim Flaherty and 2008, in a decision that makes little strategic sense. If the next election turns into “Does Mark Carney have the capacity to lead?”, you might as well just give him majority government now. This government is vulnerable on a hundred topics, from crime to climate and a bunch of others. More bluntly, every minute you’re litigating 2008 and who deserves more credit is a minute you can’t spend attacking on more effective, and more fertile, terrain.

It makes no sense because all you’re doing is Streisand Effect-ing this story, reminding people that Mark Carney has been a Serious Person In Serious Jobs for nearly two decades now. It is reminding casual news viewers who will not click the links or watch into minute 3 of the video has been here before and can step up. It’s a gift for Carney’s campaign, and yet another sign that Jenni Byrne et al have about as much control over their polling numbers as geriatric men do over how far their hairlines are receding.

The problem for the Conservatives is this is an issue and candidate designed almost perfectly to wedge them. Carney is a technocrat who has sheets of praise from basically every late 00s/early 10s Conservative across the world. It’s hard to make a Goldman banker who then served Conservative PMs in two countries as Bank Governors out to be a communist. Mark Carney is pro-making money, pro-business, and pro-capitalism. He’s just not inflexibly pro those things at any cost. He’s not a radical, and the way we know that is Stephen Harper asked him to be Finance Minister. (It was missed at the time but John Ivison did actually report this offer in fall of last year.)

The problem for the Conservatives is they want this election to be about a bunch of other things than tariffs, and for perceptions of the economy to be about inflation and carbon taxes and not tariffs. It’s just not going to work. Trump’s ability to command the news cycle means there won’t be a relent of this, and the (mostly) Conservative Premiers won’t help. Doug Ford going on American TV within a couple hours of Trump’s confirmation is a sign that we’re not getting a reprieve from tariff talk.

The problem with what a lot of Conservatives hope is that they think this tariff situation will happen, or not, and then we’ll go back to the issues we cared about before. The problem is, tariffs aren’t a destination to meet and then pass, but the beginning of a process. That process will include economic pain, job losses, store closures, and more, on both sides of the border. And that pain, those closures, those human tragedies, will have unforeseen consequences. If the American people face job losses and price hikes, maybe even rolling brownouts, it’s going to continue to play out. Maybe the US backs down tomorrow, maybe next week, maybe in 3 weeks. Trump will inevitably say 78 things that all contradict themselves and send us all into a tizzy. This is our lives now.

The Conservatives have to blunt Carney’s message on the economy and his reputation as a man who can be trusted, but the problem is they’re trying to attack something that is self-evidently true. Even if you give Carney no credit at all for the GFC, Carney led the UK through post-Brexit referendum uncertainty and the most chaotic Parliament since the 70s, if not longer. Carney’s record isn’t perfect, and I think in a lot of ways his record is of being needlessly conservative in terms of when he pulls the trigger on big calls, but that's my opinion. It’s certainly not a criticism the Conservatives can launch.

The other part of the Brexit of it all is that Brexit is the closest thing to Trump’s trade war we have in one specific way - that process descended into vanity and who and declarations from some of the dumbest men on earth all the time. As someone who has had to manage an economy where the opinions of Steve Baker and Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries and so many other true morons had the economy in the balance, it’s not a bad proxy for this. This man had to manage an economy where the country’s Parliament kept hearing all these speeches from red wall Labour MPs whose voters wanted Brexit claiming to support their constituents' wishes before walking right through the division lobbies with the Remainers. It was utterly insane, and he managed to keep the ship of state afloat.

The problem with attacking Carney’s fitness for the moment is that he’s fit. He might be a crap politician and he might have bad answers to a lot of questions but Mark Carney is not out of place talking to foreign leaders or ringing around business leaders. The attacks on Carney make sense in one way (it’s their only move) and no sense in the other (they won’t land). Sometimes there isn’t a move. The Conservatives are in deep shit, because there isn’t an immediate or obvious solution. Carney can and very well might botch this, Poilievre might be able to come through this looking tough. It’s not impossible to see a Conservative win - hell, I’d still bet on a Conservative majority if you put a gun to my head right now. But if this is the best they’ve got? They’re fucked.