Texas And Florida: Uncertain Certainties

On Two Governors Races Alike And Different

Why is Jordan Spieth a substantially more fun golfer to watch than his friend and competitor, Justin Thomas? Thomas is unquestionably better, but nobody would say that Thomas is as entertaining. The answer is simple - Thomas is going to hit the ball straight, hit the green, and then whether he wins or loses will be determined by whether or not he makes a field-average amount of putts or an above-average amount of putts. It's clinical, when he's on - and that can be great. But a clinical dissection of a golf course can also feel boring at times, and that's the reason why JT can sometimes slip through the cracks of attention.

Spieth, on the other hand, is a maniac - a crazy person on the course, capable of spraying the ball around the lot or hole-ing out from the fairway twice in one week. It's a roller coaster with Jordan, and while the highs can be rather high - three majors, 10 wins in 3 seasons, and a litany of highlights better than almost anyone - the lows can be even worse. Hell, he last won in 2017, and across two seasons came in the top 5 once. But, when it's on, man - there's nothing more fun.

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Spieth and Thomas are, hilariously, a metaphor for the politics of their states of residence. Spieth is a born and raised Texan, while the Kentucky born Thomas now resides in Florida. Ask me today who wins both of those governorships in 2022, and I'll tell you that Greg Abbott probably wins by 5, and Ron DeSantis probably wins by 3. And yet, I have Abbott Lean R and DeSantis Likely R.

I know, I know, it sounds crazy, but it actually isn't. A race rating is merely there to tell you how likely something is to happen - and while most of the time, a common range of uncertainty is applicable, it's not always the case that someone I think is up 5 is safer than someone I think is up 3.

Take the Mississippi Governor's race in 2019, where Democrats had a reasonable chance to win, according to some polling. I never believed it, and often said something along the lines of, "it might be close, but the GOP are still safe," because as close as the race may be, Democrats have a ceiling. It's how I feel about Florida - nobody ever wins Florida by a ton, it should be nominally close, but Democrats aren't winning it. The GOP have literally had a trifecta in the state since I was two years old. Florida is like Justin Thomas - steady, reliable, boring, and maybe a little more homophobic than they'd like to let on. Most of the time, you know what you're getting from the state.

Texas, however, is a fucking mess these days politically, with 2018 and 2020 showing radically different coalitions, and frankly, radically different states. Obviously I fucked Texas up in November, not buying the Hispanic results that ended up shocking everyone while buying into a more robust white swing to Joe Biden than came to pass. My contention is decidedly not that Greg Abbott is in serious trouble, but that there are a lot of difficult, unknowable questions concerning Texas right now. Will the low-propensity Hispanics that came out for Trump come out again? Will we see enough movement in the DFW quad of counties to maybe see blue Denton, or is that still a ways off? Will Democrats nominate a Hispanic candidate to fix South Texas or a white guy with a Hispanic name to try and accelerate the suburban swing?

The path to blue Texas is a lot easier to see - the cities turn blue, Hispanics break back left, and Abbott loses - than a path to a blue Florida is. Texas is Jordan Spieth with a lead - he may shoot a 62 or a 82 with it, and there isn't a goddamn thing anyone can do to figure out whether we're on track for a Good Jordan day or a Bad Jordan day. Does he hit 7 fairways or 2? Fuck if I know.

Of the two states, Texas Republicans obviously have the higher upside, but they've also got the much lower downside. A Spiethian ceiling is amazing - the ability to hole out from a bunker to win not one, but two of his 11 Tour wins, or the ability to hole 40 foot putts at key moments - but I've also seen too many drives go into trees and into water, or too many approaches from the rough go out of bounds because he's trying a hero shot.

I think both Abbott and DeSantis win again, I do - and I don't think either end up super close. But, race ratings are fundamentally an expression of your surprise at upsets - and I'd be substantially more shocked if Ron DeSantis lost than I would be if Greg Abbott did. After all, I've seen too many wild and crazy swings and roundabouts out of Texas' own to have confidence.