The Case For Steve MacKinnon

On A Serious Contender For Liberal Leader

How do we win back Quebec?

One of the biggest concerns in this Liberal leadership race has to be the complete erosion of support in Quebec. Even in yesterday’s post-resignation Pallas - which had us at 25% nationally and 30% in Ontario - the party was still at a paltry 21% in Quebec. Not only is it 16% off the Bloc, but we’re also 6% below the Tories in Quebec. Third place, and a fairly distant third, in a province where we won 35 seats at the last election is unacceptable. And saving it has to be high on the priority list for a new leader.

That said, a leader cannot just pander to Quebec at the expense of English Canada, and in the party’s tradition of switching between Anglos and Francos it is time for an Anglo. But finding the right candidate who can win back the Golden Horseshoe and also keep us alive in Quebec is one hell of a balance to strike. It’s been the grand crisis of this leadership this whole time, and if there was an obvious answer to these problems then I doubt we’d have let this current leadership drag on as long as we did.

We also need to acknowledge the reality of the Liberal leadership system - nearly a quarter of the points will come from Quebec, and that is a huge blockade to people who are trying to win this. The reason I am as dismissive of Clark’s chances as I am is simple - she doesn’t have the points or a path to get them if nearly a quarter come from Quebec. Freeland and Carney, whatever their merits or lack of in this race, do not strike me as particularly great fits for the Quebec membership. Karina Gould, if she runs, would presumably run touting a child care policy that for all the good it’s doing is merely catching English Canada up to Quebec.

The Trudeau problem also still exists, which is a real problem. Freeland may be popular enough in the party to win a leadership - maybe - but she is tied to Trudeau so intrinsically. She was his guarantor for so long that it’s hard to see how she can differentiate her. I tried to write the positive case for her leadership last night and gave up because I couldn’t believe it. I'm on the record that Carney’s a disaster waiting to happen. Clark can’t win the membership. So, who is the person?

Obvious attention has been put to Francois Philippe Champagne and Melanie Joly, but there is no guarantee either runs. And if they don’t, as is eminently plausible, there’s a void of a Quebec candidate. And there is someone who can both win the membership and serve the party admirably through the next election, save many seats, and put the party on a sustainable path moving forward.

Steve MacKinnon, enter stage right.

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Let’s start with the case for MacKinnon as a candidate who can win the country - or at least lose the country less badly. He’s a fluently bilingual Quebecer who would be able to take the argument to the Bloc and effectively use the opportunities that the collapsing Legault government, and the rising PQ, offer us in Quebec. He would be able to strengthen the party in their seats and save a significant number of them, not just on the island of Montreal but in Laval, the South Shore, and Quebec City and eastern Quebec.

MacKinnon’s track record at winning one of the most Francophone seats in the country has been incredibly impressive. He overturned Francoise Boivin’s 62% share of the vote in Gatineau in 2011 with a 40% increase in vote share and a 75% swing in 2015. He’s held that seat twice now, keeping his vote share at or above 50% in three straight elections, a feat that even longtime member Mark Assad never could manage. It’s also worth pointing out that it is a significant accomplishment to hold that seat, and to have fortified in the way he has, even with an English last name. That ability to appeal to broad communities of both languages is a base to build a national campaign from.

He would also be able to help move the party to a more growth oriented economic footing. One of the mistakes of the Trudeau era has been the focus on how the pie should be broken up, and not enough focus on pro-growth policies like innovation and business growth. He can strike a better balance on business, supporting growth and investments while still maintaining and strengthening efforts to diversify options for consumers and employees.

He’s also not been too tightly involved in this government. He wasn’t in Cabinet when various decisions, or should I say disasters, have been signed off, but he has been Whip and Government House Leader as well. He managed to keep a volatile House productive as House leader, a difficult task at the best of times. He would represent a less partisan, more measured leader at a time when the country desperately needs to lower the temperature.

His time as Labour Minister has been marked by tough circumstances, but he has done a hard job well. While some may criticize him, it seems unlikely to me that a general election audience will view his handling of the various industrial actions as unreasonable. Plainly, the country is not supportive of indefinite periods of disruption. The NDP would bang on about it endlessly but I must confess I don’t think arguing he should have let the postal strike continue indefinitely will be a winning position for them.

MacKinnon also gives us a better shot in Atlantic Canada than some of the others. Born in PEI and a son of New Brunswick in many ways, including as an advisor to Frank McKenna, MacKinnon would give us credibility out east in a way no other candidate can. (Obviously outside of LeBlanc, but he announced this morning he’s not running.)

As a matter of pure electoral calculation, it’s a pretty good case. Despite being a Quebecer there’s no risk that MacKinnon gets Dion’d by a bad answer or an inartful turn of phrase. He’d be very comfortable campaigning in Ajax or Burlington or other Golden Horseshoe Liberal seats that should be safe but aren’t anymore. His low name recognition in the country is an asset, allowing him to define himself as opposed to already being defined by the Conservatives or by their own gaffes. He would be able to thread the needle of continuity where the government was successful and change where necessary.

The case for his victory in the party is also clear. MacKinnon, if he’s the only credible candidate from Quebec, would be in a prime position to capitalize on the points on offer. He can build bridges from Quebec outwards, cobbling together a coalition of Quebec, Atlantic, and suburban moderates to win. A more business friendly approach to the party would play well in the suburbs, but also in the west, especially if he is not wedded to the idea of a carbon tax.

It’s a coalition that’s pretty easy to see on paper and pretty easy to see in reality. MacKinnon was the party’s National Director, and was the returning officer for the 2013 Leadership race. He has spent more time navigating the treacherous waters of leadership race politics and how to turn a good strategy on paper into an actual vision. His 30 years as a Liberal in various capacities makes me feel pretty safe in saying that whatever the strategy ends up being, MacKinnon will be able to ruthlessly and efficiently execute it and do it well. For a party that’s been firing blanks for what feels like years now, an operator who can execute effectively is a dream.

He’s gone toe to toe with Poilievre in a debate format before, when CBC Ottawa organized a National Capital Region debate in 2019. He is comfortable, quick, sharp, and effective in that format, and he knows the mettle of the man he is facing.

Most of all, MacKinnon would be a channel change for the country. He would be able to effectively communicate in both languages, survive tough grilling with ease, and revive the party’s fortunes. It would also revive the party’s credibility on key issues, and make it a lot harder for the Conservatives to attack him as out of touch or out to lunch, as they’re already preparing to do to the other candidates. Ask any non-Liberal about MacKinnon and the result will be grudging respect for his abilities and talents, in that very Ottawa way of respecting an opponent while also silently cheering for the moment they want to retire.

Steve MacKinnon represents an opportunity for the Liberal Party to save itself, and present Canadians with a robust, credible, and serious choice at the next election. He has proven himself as a Minister and a loyal Liberal, he is not tarred by the worst decisions of the Trudeau era and will have no problem moving where they got things wrong, and he is the candidate who can scare the Bloc and help fortify Quebec’s place in Canada. He’s a serious leader at a moment where we need serious leadership.