The Filibuster Is Dead. Long Live The Filibuster

Will Manchin Step Up?

"Prediction: Senate Dems will nuke the filibuster for HR-1, if necessary."

I tweeted this on January 7th, a take which got considerable pushback (as expected), mostly from Democrats who did not believe me. And every so often, people will ask whether I still believe this, as if the events of the last two and not quite a half months have, or should have, changed my mind. And my response to them has always been the same - the next time Joe Manchin is the 51st vote to hurt the Democratic Party will be the first time. Everything from that tweet to today has been performance art.

Neera Tanden did not have 49 votes in the US Senate, only to be scuttled by mean old Joe Manchin. That is how many will selectively choose to remember the course of events up to her withdrawing her nomination, but that doesn't make it true. I'd be shocked if she had 40 votes, honestly. Far from a Democrats in disarray story, Manchin's vote on Tanden was sophisticated performance art - and everyone in Democratic politics understood it as such. There's a reason there was no leaking of Senatorial anger with Manchin in the days after that Friday night news statement. Nobody cared. He is a reliable vote.

So, will a reliable Democratic vote sink the rest of the Democratic legislative agenda? You see why I've always been sceptical of this, and no amount of quotes about how Manchin wants to protect the Senate will change my mind. It's all performance art, or as I've said, it's all Senatorial Calvinball. Will Joe Manchin ever vote to kill the Filibuster? Of course not. Will he be the deciding vote that gets some form of HR-1 passed? I think so. And both those things can be true at the same time.

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"The King Is Dead, Long Live The King" is the phrase used to signify the death of a monarch, because the monarch is both a physical person who exists in the world and something more than that. Queen Elizabeth is a person who will, someday, no longer be alive. She is also the Queen. Elizabeth will die, but the throne is never vacant, just replaced immediately with whoever else is next in line. It's an odd quirk, but it makes a certain amount of sense.

The filibuster is much the same way. It serves two functions - a specific ability to deprive the majority of a vote on legislation, and a more pyrrhic sense of stability and comity. The former can die, but the idea that "we didn't go nuclear" can live on. Will Democrats get everything they want this way? Maybe not. Would I prefer full abolition of this counter-majoritarian bullshit? Obviously, but I don't get to write the Senate rulebook. This is what we have to go with. "If you need to literally name every building in West Virginia  "Joe Manchin Saved The Filibuster" to get him to vote for a bill that is the de facto, but not de jure death of the Filibuster, fucking do it. All of this is nothingness, all of it is Calvinball," in other words.

We all love getting caught up in the day to day of DC life, because stuff is happening, and activity is often confused for news. Joe Manchin will never vote to kill the filibuster, but if, after months of committee work and negotiations and studies, the GOP doesn't move, then he will face a choice between an archaic institutional lever and passing meaningful legislation. And nothing he says now will matter then. Lindsey Graham looked a camera dead on and said he'd never replace a SCOTUS justice after the beginning of the 2020 Primary calendar, and now fucking "Sexual Preference" Barrett is on the Court. I used to claim to be straight. All of this shit is true until it isn't.

The moment of truth on the filibuster was always going to come on HR-1, the package of voting and civil rights legislation that is working its way through the House now. Joe Manchin will either vote to sustain the racist status quo or vote for a new deal that starts to prioritize racial healing in a country that has prioritized white comfort over Black lives for far too long. I get that Manchin is an imperfect Senator, but I do not believe he will go to that extent. He is, after all, a loyal Democrat.

Maybe he will disappoint me, and betray the party and country in a real way, but his statement that he is open to reform - to the talking filibuster - is progress, real, open, progress. It should be enough to ensure that HR-1 can get passed, especially once the President of the United States starts a hard sell on him. It's a hard thing to say not to the President when he is a member of your own party. Manchin will do what he needs to do, for party and country, and then lie to everybody about how the filibuster is still alive.

The Filibuster Is Dead, Long Live The Filibuster.