The West Is In. Will They Take The Win?

On The Risks Of Pushing

The West Wants In.

I think about that far too much, because the Reform Party and the unite the right movement is just after where I personally start to care about “modern” Canadian history. Modern history in this country is the balancing act of two similar grievances manifested in very different ways - the duelling rise of Quebec nationalism and Western alienation. They are the dual fights of our times and the legacies of decisions taken in the 80s and 90s still reverberate now.

Why am I thinking about this now? Ezra Levant is launching a Rebel News campaign for Alberta independence - yes, the same Ezra Levant who tried and failed to run for office as a Canadian Alliance candidate in the early 2000s. That Ezra Levant is now officially a separatist. And while Ezra is the fun news hook to this story - and trust me, we’ll get back to him - I think a lot of Albertans and westerners have misunderstood Quebec in the post-1976 context. So let’s take a trip down history lane, shall we, and actually understand what the West is risking if they don’t take the wins they’re being offered.

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To the outside eye, it feels like Quebec has gotten all of this stuff for being the pains in the asses of Confederation. The attention and the glamour of being at the centre of the fight is what Quebec has had, and that’s what Albertans think they deserve. They think their economic might deserves them a level of influence or attention or … honestly whatever we want to call Quebec’s je ne sais pas from the press and the political class for the last 50 years.

Put aside what you think of the oil industry or Ezra or conservativism and just think about the brute economic math. They have a point, or at the very least they don’t not have one. The question is not whether the national press, and our political leaders, care enough about Alberta. I don’t think it’s really arguable that we do. Alberta has a quite good press core, and the existence of such a singular force as Jespersen is quite great, but I do not think nationally the press does nearly a good enough job of elevating a diversity of Albertan voices, and our national brands often show the same lack of detailed understanding they show Quebec.

Do I always succeed at being reasonable about Alberta? Fuck no, and I’m not going to lie and say I am. I’m a progressive and a Liberal, and sometimes those two things make me less reasonable than I should be. But I try, because it can’t drive me crazy when people don’t get Quebec and then do the same to Alberta. And it is in that spirit that I make the following point: even if you deserve more, the price isn’t worth paying to get it.

The west is in. Mark Carney went to China to strike a deal with the explicit priority of getting relief on a western priority even if it came at a cost to Laurentia. A Liberal PM cut a deal to put the west first. You’ve won. Danielle Smith got a deal that so infuriated the hero of the climate left he resigned. What is the argument for Alberta not having achieved what it wants?

The measure of the West winning is not when the Conservatives are in office and being nice to them, just as the sign of Quebec winning isn’t when Liberals are in office and sucking up to them. The true nature of success is when the parties that aren’t traditionally strong there show that same concern. Liberals won’t always give the West everything, and Quebec won’t get everything from the Cons either, but Harper is the first Conservative Prime Minister of a 9+ province Canada to not completely fuck up how to handle Quebec.

But let’s focus on the other choice, going for a maximalist approach, becoming Quebec, confronting the National Question all the time. It’ll make you feel good in the short term - it’ll mean Carney and federal Cabinet Ministers show up a bit more, and maybe you get a couple more ribbon cuttings for new fancy projects with federal dollars, and you’ll think it worked. But it will bleed you slowly but surely.

Alberta is theoretically extremely well placed for the next decades, as they use their oil money as a bridge to the economy of the future. They should be in the best spot of any province in this country, and if they did nothing - put the province in a permanent caretaker government mode - for the next 15 years, they’d be golden. But the risk of a fight about independence is the only way that plan gets fucked I’m. All Alberta has to do is avoid becoming Quebec in the 80s, where every smart and talented 20 something decides the risks of staying in the instability are too high.

It won’t be as bad as the brain drain in Quebec, because there isn’t a language war attached, but Albertans know well that people will move to where the jobs are. And if you’re looking to invest in the economy of the future, hire more people, or just generally protect the tech jobs that you already have in Calgary, the uncertainty of the national question is cyanide.

The ugly truth of Quebec’s decades-long flirtation with independence is that it represents one of the most self-inflicted wounds any place has ever given itself. It is not a model to emulate, it is a flashing red light warning for Alberta to avoid. But of course Ezra Levant’s too stupid to understand that, because Levant is a dumbass and a moron. He thinks he’s smarter than everyone else, but he’s really just a dime store pseudo-intellectual dumbass who thinks that agitating for independence is the way to get Ottawa to care about Alberta. It’s not - it’s the way to make Alberta substantially poorer than it will be if it does nothing and stays in Canada. And that is the actual lesson to take from Quebec.

Will Alberta listen? I don’t know, but let’s not let a fucking rube like Ezra Fucking Levant be the reason they fuck themselves.