Trudeau, Ford, And Singing One You Know

On Monday's News

One of the things that people don’t know, but I know, is that I’ll be releasing new work in the next little while – I’m in the process of writing a new book, but this time, unlike Salvation In The Storm, I’m not gonna release it all at once as a book, I’m gonna release it chapter-by-chapter, starting in May. It’s called Campaign Of Chaos, and it’s the story of a writer, not unlike myself, and the questions and conundrums that come up covering this for a living.

I’ve never worked in a newsroom and I’ve never had external editorial control on my work, but I do understand how that world works, and so I’m gonna write about, because, well, my fiction writing keeps my brain sane. What it does, in all honesty, is allow me an outlet for things I wish I could deal with on here, but I can’t, and so, it ends up in my fiction. In it, it allows me to understand situations better, but more importantly, I get to use motifs and riffs like I can’t quite as explicitly here, and as I think about the duelling news of Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford, I can’t stop thinking of my most recently used motif.

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“Did I drive you away?/I know what you’ll say/You’ll say: Sing one you know”

There are two pieces of news that are entirely unimportant, and yet getting lots of attention. One is that Justin Trudeau is seeking some form of arrangement with the NDP to keep his government in office through 2025, and the other is that the Ontario PC’s are at 38% in an IPSOS poll and everyone is convinced he’s a lock for majority government again (after being sure he had no chance 3 months ago).

I’ll start with Ford, because everyone having a panic attack about him creeping up to 66 seats in my projection today needs a Xanax prescription. Here are three things that are all true – if an election was held today, Doug Ford and the PCPO would win a majority government, I don’t believe he will win a majority by June 2nd, and nobody should really care what I have to say now as an exercise in predicting June 2nd. I release seat projections because people care what I think, and I don’t want to be dishonest, but if people continue to misunderstand the difference between a projection 10 weeks out and a prediction, they’re losing their minds for nothing.

To my core, I still think Del Duca becomes Premier and I still doubt Ford gets a majority government, but I’m not gonna fuck with my math to make that clear 10 months out, because at that point, what am I beyond a glorified asshat with an opinion, and that’s not what I’m here to be. What I am here to be is someone whose view is worth listening to, and if people want to listen, here’s the answer.

In a campaign, Ford is going to face the pressures of equal time, and he won’t be able to skate by as the 4th story on every newscast behind the Feds, which he has for months. The thing about being Premier of Ontario is it’s the closest thing to being a Federal politiian you can be outside of being one, and so the travails of Ford and Horwath are national stories on Power And Politics and whatever the fuck the Evan Solomon show is called at 5PM on CTV. This is just a reality.

My faith Del Duca can win has always been based in the idea that once campaigns start, the electorate focuses its mind and the Tories have to answer questions it can’t answer. It certainly was the case in 2015, 2019, and 2021 federally, but more than that, Ford’s not a good campaigner and he’s benefiting right now from an artificial bump from lifting restrictions (which, for those shocked, I knew was coming the whole time).

The same sort of thing is in play with the outrage over the Prime Minister seeking a deal with Jagmeet Singh – both Trudeau and Ford are doing things which increase the likelihood of their staying in power for longer. Any time the minority Federal Liberals go to an election is a chance they lose power, because as much as I may think Skippy, or whoever else, can’t win the next election, a non-election is a 0% chance of losing power, and an election is a non-zero chance, in their eyes. And so, they’re trying to do a deal to make this Parliament work, which of course has the Conservatives outraged, because, well, fuck them.

The thing about both the outrage over Trudeau’s proposed deal and the general existence of the Ontario PCs is that everyone is singing a tune they know very well, which is why I’m thinking of Coldplay’s best love song as I write this. The concept of singing one you know is one I’m very aware of, and one that not enough people are scared of.

There are too many people who will say the same things about the news no matter what the news is, and no matter what the circumstances are. Candice Bergen will call everything Justin Trudeau does backdoor socialism, and opponents of Doug Ford will be freaked at his chance of majority government whether I have him at 56 seats or 66 seats. In both cases, people are wrong to freak, and in all cases, the temptation to sing one you know generally exceeds the temptation for facts. Don’t let it.

Doug Ford has always had a good chance of winning another majority government. I personally don’t think he does, even as my model does. Justin Trudeau is trying to get stable government so he can govern, and govern without the risk of losing an election. Neither of these things should be surprising to anyone, and if they are, it’s your own damn fault for singing one you know, and not looking at the facts.

That said, I still think Del Duca’s Premier Christmas 2022, so if you’re worried I’ve moved off this opinion, I haven’t.