Trudeau's Budget Bet

On Housing And School Food

Since this government’s polls collapsed in July of 2023, there’s been a bunch of false starts, moments that looked like the beginning of some form of recovery, of optimism and hope. And every time, it’s been a false start, a false hope caused by polling variance. Be it the tied Nanos in the early fall or the December Abacus, we’ve wanted to believe. At some point, even my “things have changed quickly so they can change quickly again” pseudo-optimism faded into jaded cynicism about saving the furniture. Eagle-eyed readers will have noticed the refusal to even caveat Poilievre’s imminent status, and it’s because the government hasn’t deserved the benefit of the doubt that they could maybe convert their 1% chance.

Except now, we’ve had the announcement of the National School Food program and a $5B housing fund designed to strongarm recalcitrant provinces into zoning reform, and possibly most importantly we’ve seen Justin Trudeau own up to the government’s failure on immigration today, and I’m starting to wonder. Not about victory, but about whether this government might have enough to make a case for its own existence on its own merits.

The December Abacus tightening was, to the extent that was about any real factors and not just randomness, about Poilievre having a bad couple of weeks beforehand. When memories of that faded, the latent failures of this government remained, which is why a poll tightening based on a bad week for Poilievre was never going to hold. (Looking back, arguably the most embarrassing column I wrote in 2023 is the column about that Abacus poll – I should have waited for someone else to corroborate it first, or at least waited for Abacus to produce something close to it again.)

But right now, the government has some fight, they have some ideas behind them, and the initial reviews from housing experts is that today’s announcements suggest this will be a very good policy. That it also creates a political opportunity for the government by repositioning the housing crisis from Liberal inaction to Liberals fight recalcitrant provinces is a benefit to those who may or may not have been yelling about this since Doug Ford announced his war on upzoning. (That said, I’m reliably informed by sources that this investment was planned before Ford’s announcement.)

Is this the beginning of some Liberal renaissance? Who knows. What it does feel like is that the government has found itself, and found a purpose for the next 18 months. Whether that ends with them winning 60 seats, 90 seats, 120 or even 150, I’m not gonna make a guess. But I do think the Liberals have turned a corner, and not a moment too soon.

…

This government has, in the time since the great polling collapse, never seen the type of explicit disunity that others faced. Other than Bill Morneau, who has been a persistent thorn in the side of the government since resigning under threat of firing, there hasn’t been much of a mutiny against this government. Former Ministers of a less ax-grinding fashion have never come out to say Trudeau should go, his obvious successors in the Parliamentary Party have been loyal, and the caucus aren’t even particularly mutinous.

The reason is probably a combination of things, but part of it is undeniably Liberal arrogance – the belief that, to paraphrase Neil Young, they’re deep inside themselves and they’ll get out somehow. The somehow has never been particularly clear, and it’s never been clear whether this governmental hubris has been based on a real understanding of their capacity to deliver results before the election or whether it’s been based on Liberals’ addiction to their own capacity as mythmakers. I saw the end years of Wynne from the safety of a campus association, and I have been terrified the federal branch would limp to the bitter end on arrogance alone.

What this week has shown is that if they’re going to go down, it’s going to be fighting, and it will be so in a way that both increases the chances of the Liberals at least saving the furniture, but also in a way that gives the country a chance of avoiding a lost decade. We need all hands on deck to solve our current crisis, and if the Liberals are serious about fixing it then Pierre Poilievre should secretly thank his stars because it’s entirely possible that the Liberal policy agenda being rolled out right now will see housing starts sharply rise throughout the 2025-29 Parliament.

The politics of this are clear, if the Feds can stay on message. Poilievre has real liabilities here as Scott Moe and Paul Calandra push back at the idea of federal requirements for these additional dollars, Alberta’s statement is negative to the idea of federal involvement, and in doing so they’re giving the Liberals people to be mad at and people to blame. With what’s been announced and what seems to be coming down the line on reducing housing demand, and the government’s flurry of supply-side reforms, if the Conservatives provinces come out swinging as the blockers of housing it won’t be long before Canadians start to wonder if Poilievre’s gatekeeper talk is all bark and no bite – and whether Doug Ford and Danielle Smith will be the NIMBY tails wagging the Tory dog.

None of this is to say the Tories are suddenly a few weeks or a few months away from projecting for 130 seats again, and anyone who says otherwise is engaging in a form of hopium that I’ve used before, namely just under four years ago when I thought that Biden was on route for a landslide win. Acknowledging there are political headwinds for the Tories doesn’t mean that you’re denying that you’d obviously rather be them right now. But in my head I’ve been resigned to a Tory majority government for a while now. Now? I’m not sure.

I am reticent to get over my skis here, because previous good signs for this government have been false signals. Between the food program and the housing announcements Tuesday, it is hard to say that this government is not going to go down swinging. As someone who wants this government to use the last 18 months of this mandate well, I’m happier today than I have been with this government in a while.

It is clear this government still retains some capacity for movement, and it still retains the fight that will be necessary to save itself and help some people along the way. The state they find themselves in is so bad that success may not be an election victory, but merely a smaller defeat, but the difference between 40 seats and 90 seats is huge. Ask any Ontario Liberal if they regret not dumping Wynne in 2017 and scraping home 25 seats with Yasir Naqvi, and everyone with a brain will say the party and the broader progressive movement in Ontario would be better off for that happening.

In deciding to stay as Leader, Trudeau owes his party and his country his best. His decision to stay is, in effect, both a gamble and a commitment – a bet that he is the best placed person to save the party from the crisis it faces in the polls, and a commitment that he will do everything in his power to leave the party in a better state than his father did.

If this week is any indication his bet is correct, and the party is on a path back from absolute annihilation. Just don’t stop.