I assume that you wrote this on the basis that Carney calls for an election almost immediately after becoming PM. I think this is the right call and personally think it would get him a solid majority government.
However, as you observed as well in the past columns, Carney sometimes is over cautious. Not a bad characteristic for a banker, but could be less helpful for a politician. Would he be also cautious in this situation? With NDP support under water in the polls, the NDP would probably easily support him till later in the year. I think it would be a mistake to wait that long, but who knows.
Regarding historical comparisons, I don’t think any comparison applies with Trump 2.0 making daily threats to Canada’s sovereignty. We are in uncharted territory.
I imagine that calling an election within the coming weeks would open Carney to criticism that he would be putting both parliament and the government out of commission during the ongoing Trump tariffs. That could be risky.
Simple answer. Trump is going to be in office for 4 years. We are in for the long run and a quick election sets us up for this longer fight. Besides all the opposition parties promised to send the government packing at the first opportunity.
I'd suggest we've entered a different time/experience with the MEGA south burning up the norms the world has functioned with for decades. Now, at the same time, neoclassical economics has enabled oligarchs in the 'free world' and they've taken control in the US through Trump & the authors of 2025.
Having an accomplished economist with experience globally seeking leadership for the Liberal Party is a huge asset for Canada. By comparison, the MEGA north - slogan boy - is scrambling to regain his baring. When you base your entire campaign on 'F*ck Trudeau; axe-the-tax, Canada's broken and other mindless slogans - then - Trudeau steps aside, the orange menace threatens to annex Canada while tossing tariffs on Canada, Mexico & other countries, well ... the entire world has changed. PP can't adjust without changing his whole campaign and he won't because he can't. He has nothing to offer that doesn't follow the Trump playbook.
Canadians are organizing against this economic and political US assault - as are other countries. PP is hooped. He's constantly insisted Canada is broken - it's not. PP is just an entitled toddler kissing-up to his orange idol - the grifter. His total time in parliament (too long I'd suggest) has been spent 'barn-burning'. His voting record on various policy put forth is his resume. That will be a huge part of the next election.
Fair points, but the parallels extend beyond polls. Turner had been out of politics for a decade and Campbell was a relative neophyte with no leadership experience; neither gave themselves much time in the big chair before hitting the hustings - and those are major reasons why their campaigns were disastrous. To my mind, that’s where the real parallel with Carney lies. He’ll be propelled to the PMship with zero adjustment period or experience and hurtle right into a campaign. This doesn’t mean he can’t win, especially because there is NO parallel between the existential crisis we now face and what was going on in 1984/93. But Poilievre does have a considerable advantage on the level of experience with raw partisan, electoral, and leadership politics. He also has major limitations, and a skillful opponent will be able to exploit those.
Having been trained on politics by the university of BlueSky, I am an expert 😂
We know, in general, the Liberals on Social media scorn the polls in favour of Conservative, but believe the ones in favour of Liberals. This makes a big risk come voting time that many may not vote if they think it is a sure thing.
As for Carney, he has a lot of big plans, and if he does not call an election, he is at risk of have several months without delivering (possibly due to filibuster, or just realities of day to day Trump drama). However, calling an election avoids this risk and lets voters coast on the promises of growth vs Poilievere’s promises to tear down social support platforms
I imagine that calling an election within the coming weeks would open Carney to criticism that he would be putting both parliament and the government out of commission during the ongoing Trump tariffs. That could be risky.
Poilievre’s problem, and thank the goddess we are already seeing it in Liberals ads, is the volume of record he has put on tape aligning with Trump PLUS a third of his base LIKES Trump. He can’t run away from Trump but if he tries too had to do that he also risks losing some of his support (at least in enthusiasm to vote).
Voter motivation is not something the polls pick up very well but I would bet on election day the Liberals significantly outperform their polling numbers due to motivation.
In 1993 the Bloc received 13.5% of the vote, and 44 seats. The PC's received 16% of the vote, and 2 seats. I predict a Liberal minority based on the fact that vote splits will favour the Liberals more than any of the other parties. Quebec will probably elect mostly Bloc members, and the 416 will elect all Liberals. I don't think the Conservatives have enough support east of Manitoba.
I assume that you wrote this on the basis that Carney calls for an election almost immediately after becoming PM. I think this is the right call and personally think it would get him a solid majority government.
However, as you observed as well in the past columns, Carney sometimes is over cautious. Not a bad characteristic for a banker, but could be less helpful for a politician. Would he be also cautious in this situation? With NDP support under water in the polls, the NDP would probably easily support him till later in the year. I think it would be a mistake to wait that long, but who knows.
Regarding historical comparisons, I don’t think any comparison applies with Trump 2.0 making daily threats to Canada’s sovereignty. We are in uncharted territory.
I imagine that calling an election within the coming weeks would open Carney to criticism that he would be putting both parliament and the government out of commission during the ongoing Trump tariffs. That could be risky.
Simple answer. Trump is going to be in office for 4 years. We are in for the long run and a quick election sets us up for this longer fight. Besides all the opposition parties promised to send the government packing at the first opportunity.
I'd suggest we've entered a different time/experience with the MEGA south burning up the norms the world has functioned with for decades. Now, at the same time, neoclassical economics has enabled oligarchs in the 'free world' and they've taken control in the US through Trump & the authors of 2025.
Having an accomplished economist with experience globally seeking leadership for the Liberal Party is a huge asset for Canada. By comparison, the MEGA north - slogan boy - is scrambling to regain his baring. When you base your entire campaign on 'F*ck Trudeau; axe-the-tax, Canada's broken and other mindless slogans - then - Trudeau steps aside, the orange menace threatens to annex Canada while tossing tariffs on Canada, Mexico & other countries, well ... the entire world has changed. PP can't adjust without changing his whole campaign and he won't because he can't. He has nothing to offer that doesn't follow the Trump playbook.
Canadians are organizing against this economic and political US assault - as are other countries. PP is hooped. He's constantly insisted Canada is broken - it's not. PP is just an entitled toddler kissing-up to his orange idol - the grifter. His total time in parliament (too long I'd suggest) has been spent 'barn-burning'. His voting record on various policy put forth is his resume. That will be a huge part of the next election.
Fair points, but the parallels extend beyond polls. Turner had been out of politics for a decade and Campbell was a relative neophyte with no leadership experience; neither gave themselves much time in the big chair before hitting the hustings - and those are major reasons why their campaigns were disastrous. To my mind, that’s where the real parallel with Carney lies. He’ll be propelled to the PMship with zero adjustment period or experience and hurtle right into a campaign. This doesn’t mean he can’t win, especially because there is NO parallel between the existential crisis we now face and what was going on in 1984/93. But Poilievre does have a considerable advantage on the level of experience with raw partisan, electoral, and leadership politics. He also has major limitations, and a skillful opponent will be able to exploit those.
Having been trained on politics by the university of BlueSky, I am an expert 😂
We know, in general, the Liberals on Social media scorn the polls in favour of Conservative, but believe the ones in favour of Liberals. This makes a big risk come voting time that many may not vote if they think it is a sure thing.
As for Carney, he has a lot of big plans, and if he does not call an election, he is at risk of have several months without delivering (possibly due to filibuster, or just realities of day to day Trump drama). However, calling an election avoids this risk and lets voters coast on the promises of growth vs Poilievere’s promises to tear down social support platforms
I imagine that calling an election within the coming weeks would open Carney to criticism that he would be putting both parliament and the government out of commission during the ongoing Trump tariffs. That could be risky.
Poilievre’s problem, and thank the goddess we are already seeing it in Liberals ads, is the volume of record he has put on tape aligning with Trump PLUS a third of his base LIKES Trump. He can’t run away from Trump but if he tries too had to do that he also risks losing some of his support (at least in enthusiasm to vote).
Voter motivation is not something the polls pick up very well but I would bet on election day the Liberals significantly outperform their polling numbers due to motivation.
In 1993 the Bloc received 13.5% of the vote, and 44 seats. The PC's received 16% of the vote, and 2 seats. I predict a Liberal minority based on the fact that vote splits will favour the Liberals more than any of the other parties. Quebec will probably elect mostly Bloc members, and the 416 will elect all Liberals. I don't think the Conservatives have enough support east of Manitoba.