The Abacus poll is an outlier. No other polls show such a huge gap. We are also talking about 2 years out from an election. Abacus also had Erin O'Toole with a rather large lead going into the last election. I do think you're right though about Trudeau seeming to need his back against the wall and I wish he would STOP doing that. A Poilievre government would destroy Canada as we know it. You could expect more legislation (like Ontario) that silences anyone from advertising against the government and most likely another go round of the Fair Elections Act that attempts to disenfranchise voters. Give them power and they won't give it up.
I think where this leaves us is more and more likely to serve out the full term before an election. The NDP has little incentive to rock the boat, and the Liberals have all the incentive to take the time to burnish their accomplishments and regain their balance.
The only people served by a quick election are the ones least able to effect it.
Wake me up in 18 months when the election talk and poling numbers mean something
Another spot-on analysis by Evan. Hopefully the Abacus poll is finally a wake-up call. But there is more useful info in this poll and it is the top 3 issues that people are concerned about. Abacus gives, ranked from high (70%) to low (less than 10%):
The rising cost of living
Healthcare
Housing affordability and accessibility
The economy
Climate change and the environment
Inequality and poverty
Crime and public safety
Immigration
The threat posed by China and Russia
A lack of freedom in Canada
Indigenous reconciliation
The Russian invasion of Ukraine
Chinese election interference
What have been the Liberals been talking about most? Climate Change and Ukraine (items 5 and 12). What has Poilievre been talking about most? Items 1 to 4 and 7. So I think it is pretty clear what the Liberals need to do in the next 6 months. Sometimes the answer is right in front of you.
I don't disagree with your analysis, and there's definitely a disconnect between polls and byelection results right now, but it's hard to ignore the general polling trend, including Leger's latest release. I assume it's most people reflecting on the current government more than anything else.
astonishing ! Going to go back, read & visualize better.. & try to keep up ! I write much of the day or night can’t imagine creating while processing in such detail & pace.. plus been so damn busy I ain’t made it to Brazil & George.. but up to date re IndyCar & Hungary.. lost track of NASCAR somehow
Regardless, I’m trying to sniff out and/or flush from the undergrowth YELLOW MEDIA.. not just the Propaganda.. the Entire Cohort Managing & Creating the endless daily ‘GROOMING’ - will drop you name of an Excellent substack re How GOP ‘get around’ Constitutional Law re SuperPacs embedding with Mainstream Media .. I was immediately struck by how the Bob Fife & the Secret Leaker grift was played via PartisanMedia mass distribution - though you likely know all these Propaganda Techniques .. and yes, I th guy on X-Twitter who keeps posting the Wikipedia link to Propaganda Techniques, Tactics, Tools, Role of Mainstream Media & Influence Polls begetting More Propaganda Polls.. ‘& Into The Valley Of Polls Rode The 1,000 !’ & all with X % Levels of Certitude or is it Absurdity ?
And also, finally.. where is Non Partisan Media and/or Indy - Media Analysis of eventual or soonly - CPC Strategy & Action Plan to somehow Initiate & Re-Introduce Carleton’s former neighbour & know it all guy & Pretend Prime Minister (& what the F is that all about re his monogrammed clothing ?) .. guy they re-elected under False Pretences as ‘Their Public Servant’ who most of whom do know is really full of shit but on the F’kin Ride Of His Life & a Multimillionaire. There’s so many unpredictable ways THE CPC GriftTank can have this bow up in their faces and blow their asses off too.. & ruinously 🦎🏴☠️
It'd move the average by about 4% to the government's negative but you could similarly make the case that NDG-Westmount is tainted by Garneau being a specific, singular force in that part of the city so that should also be tossed, which is why it's bad form (and why you use the median anyways)
I really enjoy your writing.
The Abacus poll is an outlier. No other polls show such a huge gap. We are also talking about 2 years out from an election. Abacus also had Erin O'Toole with a rather large lead going into the last election. I do think you're right though about Trudeau seeming to need his back against the wall and I wish he would STOP doing that. A Poilievre government would destroy Canada as we know it. You could expect more legislation (like Ontario) that silences anyone from advertising against the government and most likely another go round of the Fair Elections Act that attempts to disenfranchise voters. Give them power and they won't give it up.
Why don't the Liberals in Canada change the voting system to PR then if they truly believe a CPC government would destroy Canada?
I think where this leaves us is more and more likely to serve out the full term before an election. The NDP has little incentive to rock the boat, and the Liberals have all the incentive to take the time to burnish their accomplishments and regain their balance.
The only people served by a quick election are the ones least able to effect it.
Wake me up in 18 months when the election talk and poling numbers mean something
Hi Evan
Great piece.
One note: You have a typo in the "What does it all mean?" paragraph... I believe "saw" is supposed to be "say".
Douglas
Another spot-on analysis by Evan. Hopefully the Abacus poll is finally a wake-up call. But there is more useful info in this poll and it is the top 3 issues that people are concerned about. Abacus gives, ranked from high (70%) to low (less than 10%):
The rising cost of living
Healthcare
Housing affordability and accessibility
The economy
Climate change and the environment
Inequality and poverty
Crime and public safety
Immigration
The threat posed by China and Russia
A lack of freedom in Canada
Indigenous reconciliation
The Russian invasion of Ukraine
Chinese election interference
What have been the Liberals been talking about most? Climate Change and Ukraine (items 5 and 12). What has Poilievre been talking about most? Items 1 to 4 and 7. So I think it is pretty clear what the Liberals need to do in the next 6 months. Sometimes the answer is right in front of you.
I don't disagree with your analysis, and there's definitely a disconnect between polls and byelection results right now, but it's hard to ignore the general polling trend, including Leger's latest release. I assume it's most people reflecting on the current government more than anything else.
astonishing ! Going to go back, read & visualize better.. & try to keep up ! I write much of the day or night can’t imagine creating while processing in such detail & pace.. plus been so damn busy I ain’t made it to Brazil & George.. but up to date re IndyCar & Hungary.. lost track of NASCAR somehow
Regardless, I’m trying to sniff out and/or flush from the undergrowth YELLOW MEDIA.. not just the Propaganda.. the Entire Cohort Managing & Creating the endless daily ‘GROOMING’ - will drop you name of an Excellent substack re How GOP ‘get around’ Constitutional Law re SuperPacs embedding with Mainstream Media .. I was immediately struck by how the Bob Fife & the Secret Leaker grift was played via PartisanMedia mass distribution - though you likely know all these Propaganda Techniques .. and yes, I th guy on X-Twitter who keeps posting the Wikipedia link to Propaganda Techniques, Tactics, Tools, Role of Mainstream Media & Influence Polls begetting More Propaganda Polls.. ‘& Into The Valley Of Polls Rode The 1,000 !’ & all with X % Levels of Certitude or is it Absurdity ?
And also, finally.. where is Non Partisan Media and/or Indy - Media Analysis of eventual or soonly - CPC Strategy & Action Plan to somehow Initiate & Re-Introduce Carleton’s former neighbour & know it all guy & Pretend Prime Minister (& what the F is that all about re his monogrammed clothing ?) .. guy they re-elected under False Pretences as ‘Their Public Servant’ who most of whom do know is really full of shit but on the F’kin Ride Of His Life & a Multimillionaire. There’s so many unpredictable ways THE CPC GriftTank can have this bow up in their faces and blow their asses off too.. & ruinously 🦎🏴☠️
It'd move the average by about 4% to the government's negative but you could similarly make the case that NDG-Westmount is tainted by Garneau being a specific, singular force in that part of the city so that should also be tossed, which is why it's bad form (and why you use the median anyways)