Overall I would agree with most of your analysis and agree with the general electoral math; however, I do think your analysis of the Calgary CMA data has missed an important factor to consider, the voting history of the ridings in the rest of the Calgary CMA that aren't in Calgary proper — those being Airdrie-Cochrane, Airdrie-East, Highwood, and Chestermere-Strathmore. The reason I bring this up is because those ridings, which accounted for 101,369 votes of the 655,284 votes in ridings that were cast in the Calgary CMA in 2019, are very strong ridings for the UCP, with the UCP winning between 65 to 73% of the vote there in 2019, much further to the right of Calgary proper, and more in line with the rural areas of Alberta, and this pattern of voting further to the right of the Calgary CMA continues if you look to previous elections, in 2015 the ridings in these areas all went to the Wildrose with the PCs usually in second place, in 2012 they all went to the Wildrose. These regions around Calgary have a consistent trend of voting much further to the right of Calgary, with voting habits that align with rural Alberta far more than they do with Calgary.
The reason this fact matters so much is because we know from polling that the UCP won't lose that much support in rural areas this election, they are expected to win with 60% or more of the vote in a lot of ridings, and so since those communities in the Calgary CMA which are outside of Calgary itself have a history of voting in line with the rest of rural Alberta for the past few elections and without data to the contrary, it is very likely to hold true this election, which means that the results in those Calgary CMA polls will have results that are better for the UCP than they are in Calgary alone, and likewise worse for the NDP than they would be in Calgary alone.
Ok so this on the surface seems to make sense, but can we confirm this. Well, let's take Janet's numbers. For the Calgary CMA, the UCP are at 48.78% of the vote in the Calgary CMA, with the NDP at 45.76% of the vote, however we also have to consider try and estimate what the numbers in those surrounding communities are, which given their voting history, we can with confidently say will fall in line with the numbers for rural Alberta, which Janet says is 65.98% for the UCP and 29.29% for the NDP. Given that data, if we assume that the ratio of votes cast in Calgary proper and votes cast in those surrounding communities is the same as it is in 2019, then we could estimate what the percent of voters voting for the UCP or NDP in Calgary proper are by rearranging the following equation to solve for that unknown:
(% of voters in Calgary proper) * (% of voters that support NDP/UCP in Calgary proper) + (% of voters in Surrounding Communities) * (% of voters that support NDP/UCP in Surrounding Communities) = % of voters that support NDP/UCP in Calgary CMA
Plugging in the numbers for rural Alberta in for our expected support for UCP/NDP in the surrounding communities, the 2019 numbers for the percent of CMA voters in Calgary proper and the surrounding communities, and solving for support in Calgary proper, we find that the NDP is predicted to have 48.77% of the vote in Calgary proper while the UCP have 45.64% of the vote, a narrow 3 point lead for the NDP in the city proper, and in line with other numbers seen at polls like ThinkHQ's numbers. If we repeat this but with other polls such as Leger, and Research Co's numbers, we get similar results as well; all these polls have the Calgary CMA number for the UCP above the NDP, but when compensating for the surrounding areas strong support for the UCP, we get small leads for the NDP in Calgary proper.
I think you are probably right, but if the NDP win, it’s because of their ground game. The day the election started, Calgary woke up to a sea of orange on their Neighbour’s lawns. This indicated that the NDP had already visited every key neighbourhood they needed, and just needed some persuasion and GOTV during the actual campaign. Also, they have a very interesting sign game, trying to frame the ballot box question as about leadership.
Yep. I think outcome 2 is the most likely right now. Calgary proper will vote for the ABNDP by a decent margin(about 5-7 points). The ABNDP probably finds a way to get a third seat in the Edmonton donut but it's not enough so we end up with some weird UCP majority of 1-2 seats. Smith resigns a few months later and notley probably stays on incase the UCP decides to shit the bed post election.
I bet you’d be happy to look a fool in exchange for the NDP winning.
For that matter I wish I could take that bet. Anyone know a site that will actually give odds on the election? I’d love to place a bet on a UCP victory. If I lose the bet I won’t care. And if the UCP win at least I can buy a nice dinner
Overall I would agree with most of your analysis and agree with the general electoral math; however, I do think your analysis of the Calgary CMA data has missed an important factor to consider, the voting history of the ridings in the rest of the Calgary CMA that aren't in Calgary proper — those being Airdrie-Cochrane, Airdrie-East, Highwood, and Chestermere-Strathmore. The reason I bring this up is because those ridings, which accounted for 101,369 votes of the 655,284 votes in ridings that were cast in the Calgary CMA in 2019, are very strong ridings for the UCP, with the UCP winning between 65 to 73% of the vote there in 2019, much further to the right of Calgary proper, and more in line with the rural areas of Alberta, and this pattern of voting further to the right of the Calgary CMA continues if you look to previous elections, in 2015 the ridings in these areas all went to the Wildrose with the PCs usually in second place, in 2012 they all went to the Wildrose. These regions around Calgary have a consistent trend of voting much further to the right of Calgary, with voting habits that align with rural Alberta far more than they do with Calgary.
The reason this fact matters so much is because we know from polling that the UCP won't lose that much support in rural areas this election, they are expected to win with 60% or more of the vote in a lot of ridings, and so since those communities in the Calgary CMA which are outside of Calgary itself have a history of voting in line with the rest of rural Alberta for the past few elections and without data to the contrary, it is very likely to hold true this election, which means that the results in those Calgary CMA polls will have results that are better for the UCP than they are in Calgary alone, and likewise worse for the NDP than they would be in Calgary alone.
Ok so this on the surface seems to make sense, but can we confirm this. Well, let's take Janet's numbers. For the Calgary CMA, the UCP are at 48.78% of the vote in the Calgary CMA, with the NDP at 45.76% of the vote, however we also have to consider try and estimate what the numbers in those surrounding communities are, which given their voting history, we can with confidently say will fall in line with the numbers for rural Alberta, which Janet says is 65.98% for the UCP and 29.29% for the NDP. Given that data, if we assume that the ratio of votes cast in Calgary proper and votes cast in those surrounding communities is the same as it is in 2019, then we could estimate what the percent of voters voting for the UCP or NDP in Calgary proper are by rearranging the following equation to solve for that unknown:
(% of voters in Calgary proper) * (% of voters that support NDP/UCP in Calgary proper) + (% of voters in Surrounding Communities) * (% of voters that support NDP/UCP in Surrounding Communities) = % of voters that support NDP/UCP in Calgary CMA
Plugging in the numbers for rural Alberta in for our expected support for UCP/NDP in the surrounding communities, the 2019 numbers for the percent of CMA voters in Calgary proper and the surrounding communities, and solving for support in Calgary proper, we find that the NDP is predicted to have 48.77% of the vote in Calgary proper while the UCP have 45.64% of the vote, a narrow 3 point lead for the NDP in the city proper, and in line with other numbers seen at polls like ThinkHQ's numbers. If we repeat this but with other polls such as Leger, and Research Co's numbers, we get similar results as well; all these polls have the Calgary CMA number for the UCP above the NDP, but when compensating for the surrounding areas strong support for the UCP, we get small leads for the NDP in Calgary proper.
When u chastise the ND’s for running a poor campaign, I think u do not understand Alberta and the difficulty of unseating ‘conservative’ at any time.
I think you are probably right, but if the NDP win, it’s because of their ground game. The day the election started, Calgary woke up to a sea of orange on their Neighbour’s lawns. This indicated that the NDP had already visited every key neighbourhood they needed, and just needed some persuasion and GOTV during the actual campaign. Also, they have a very interesting sign game, trying to frame the ballot box question as about leadership.
Yep. I think outcome 2 is the most likely right now. Calgary proper will vote for the ABNDP by a decent margin(about 5-7 points). The ABNDP probably finds a way to get a third seat in the Edmonton donut but it's not enough so we end up with some weird UCP majority of 1-2 seats. Smith resigns a few months later and notley probably stays on incase the UCP decides to shit the bed post election.
I bet you’d be happy to look a fool in exchange for the NDP winning.
For that matter I wish I could take that bet. Anyone know a site that will actually give odds on the election? I’d love to place a bet on a UCP victory. If I lose the bet I won’t care. And if the UCP win at least I can buy a nice dinner
I’m an atheist and I’m not stupid. But to your point: Former Mayor Nenshi might have made all the difference.