Can always count on an Evan Scrimshaw column to keep me grounded. Good point about a few major events left for the CPC to turn it around. Poilievre would need to reinvent himself as a gentleman statesman & make Canadians forget every vitriolic thing he’s ever said. Looking forward to his retirement. Go Fanjoy
Yep. Poilievre embarrassed himself with two female reporters last week. Also one of the influencers that supports him compared the current state of Canada to Britney Spears a few days ago.
Of course it is still a race. Just not a particularly close race. Nor does it appear to get any closer.
Darell Bricker and several others are consuming significant amounts of hopium and copium. Keep in mind, the main motivation for conservatives is beating the Liberals. It is not about getting Canada into a better place, it is their turn to be in power. And right now, nothing seems to work against Carney, it must be uber-frustrating for them.
I believe that there is a significant risk for the conservatives that a portion of their supporters will not vote in the end. If they are not going to beat the liberals, what is the point of voting?
I read that this morning on Global News and was scratching my head! I read this substack as well as Eric Grenier and Philippe Fournier and looked at the data and couldn't see where that conclusion could be made! Glad to see you validate my opinion of the conclusion that was reached...
The funny thing is I noticed a weird thing in Mainstreet’s daily polls. After showing a rather impressive liberal vote share in AB a few days ago the Conservatives are back to polling better than 2021 in the province. The same thing is kinda true with the prairies. BC also has a tendency to flip flop a lot depending on the day in mainsteet’s poll. Ontario has been the most stable out of all of the provinces since their daily polls started. I basically have been ignoring Mainstreet’s polls especially on the weekend because of how unstable they are.
On the other hand, news items like that help GOTV activity.
Somehow Preston’s response to Coyne’s piece was in my Substack feed. According to Sad Uncle Preston “Canada is Broken” because voter turnout is so low…. I would love to see a return to 1970’s turnout so Presto just STFU.
(I had to go to the Elections Canada office locally to get on the voter list here after our move, and it was BUSY. My wife’s son, who had never voted, cast his ballot.)
CPC: Poilievre was really calm and delivered his prvate-sector friendly message and otherwise looked like a walking corpse. Didn`t joke around much and Lepage ended by telling him that public broadcasters are important for democracy. A few grammar mistakes in French.
Rate: B-
LPC - Carney got tripped up (again...) on the tax shelter thing, going to CRA resolution and such.
Lepage pressed on QC culture and he blurted out Coeur-de-pirate and he knew Lepage from his RBO days, good for him. He didn`t really fail and was statesman and leader-like. About all you could ask. Didn`t know the french correspondent word for Bermuda.
Rate: B
Poilievre was mostly better but not by much. The debates will bea lot tougher though.
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IDK about attacking pollsters when you defended a pollster a few days ago, sems...inconsistent.
If you have evidence IPSOS has poor methodologies you should bring these up, with them and then news outlets. Otherwise this seems like an emotional outburst.
The `Bgi Shift`was a good concept but they never understood that Conservatives in Canada are the rebond friend of a rebound boyfriend. Majorities happen when we get tired of constant minority parliament votes, no one reallly likes them outside Alberta and parts of Saskitoba.
That`s why it`s sooo important for them to just focus on QCéONéMaritimes. Alberta and Prairies are irrelevant to the chase, really.
Frankly, the big shift was obviously very wrong the day it came out. I’m surprised it got published. Just made no sense. It’s like they didn’t know the population size of the western provinces vs. Ontario and Quebec. It’s a bizarre book. I read it and the commentary around it and felt like I was taking crazy pills.
With these polling numbers - imagine the possibilities. A Liberal win for a 4th term would give them the power to pass Bill C-63 The Online Harms Act, basically giving them the power to remove opposition speech. “At its core, Bill C-63 hands the federal government sweeping powers to police digital speech. It creates a Digital Safety Commission, an unelected bureaucratic authority empowered to monitor, investigate, and punish online platforms and individuals for content deemed "harmful."
With opposition mostly shut down - the uninterrupted Liberal majority through 2050 is very much possible.
Can always count on an Evan Scrimshaw column to keep me grounded. Good point about a few major events left for the CPC to turn it around. Poilievre would need to reinvent himself as a gentleman statesman & make Canadians forget every vitriolic thing he’s ever said. Looking forward to his retirement. Go Fanjoy
Let’s not forget how women feel about Poilievre-his support for women’s issues is abysmal.
Yep. Poilievre embarrassed himself with two female reporters last week. Also one of the influencers that supports him compared the current state of Canada to Britney Spears a few days ago.
Conservatives have moved back decades not only are they the party of hate and division but they are playing Maple Maga with Canada 🇨🇦 Never PP
I’m sorry but Carney’s French is Ok - I understand everything he says and appreciate his efforts at pronunciation 🤷🏻♀️
I think he will do fine tonight in TLMEP and during the debates - he may not be a politician but he’s been around and shown he can be relatable
Those in the island of Montréal who are voting for him still will after the debates
We had a perfectly bilingual PM in JT and the haters hated him anyway so
Of course it is still a race. Just not a particularly close race. Nor does it appear to get any closer.
Darell Bricker and several others are consuming significant amounts of hopium and copium. Keep in mind, the main motivation for conservatives is beating the Liberals. It is not about getting Canada into a better place, it is their turn to be in power. And right now, nothing seems to work against Carney, it must be uber-frustrating for them.
I believe that there is a significant risk for the conservatives that a portion of their supporters will not vote in the end. If they are not going to beat the liberals, what is the point of voting?
Dang. That's good stuff. No holding back haha.
I read that this morning on Global News and was scratching my head! I read this substack as well as Eric Grenier and Philippe Fournier and looked at the data and couldn't see where that conclusion could be made! Glad to see you validate my opinion of the conclusion that was reached...
Well said 😜
Also, do ya think Bricker now sees what happens when the left coalesces against a repellent Conservative leader?
A formal union of Lib-NDP is not necessary to get the job done.
The funny thing is I noticed a weird thing in Mainstreet’s daily polls. After showing a rather impressive liberal vote share in AB a few days ago the Conservatives are back to polling better than 2021 in the province. The same thing is kinda true with the prairies. BC also has a tendency to flip flop a lot depending on the day in mainsteet’s poll. Ontario has been the most stable out of all of the provinces since their daily polls started. I basically have been ignoring Mainstreet’s polls especially on the weekend because of how unstable they are.
On the other hand, news items like that help GOTV activity.
Somehow Preston’s response to Coyne’s piece was in my Substack feed. According to Sad Uncle Preston “Canada is Broken” because voter turnout is so low…. I would love to see a return to 1970’s turnout so Presto just STFU.
(I had to go to the Elections Canada office locally to get on the voter list here after our move, and it was BUSY. My wife’s son, who had never voted, cast his ballot.)
Seems like the latest Mainstreet update is going to piss off conservatives. Amazing support in the wrong regions plus tepid support elsewhere.
TLMEP breakdown:
CPC: Poilievre was really calm and delivered his prvate-sector friendly message and otherwise looked like a walking corpse. Didn`t joke around much and Lepage ended by telling him that public broadcasters are important for democracy. A few grammar mistakes in French.
Rate: B-
LPC - Carney got tripped up (again...) on the tax shelter thing, going to CRA resolution and such.
Lepage pressed on QC culture and he blurted out Coeur-de-pirate and he knew Lepage from his RBO days, good for him. He didn`t really fail and was statesman and leader-like. About all you could ask. Didn`t know the french correspondent word for Bermuda.
Rate: B
Poilievre was mostly better but not by much. The debates will bea lot tougher though.
--
IDK about attacking pollsters when you defended a pollster a few days ago, sems...inconsistent.
If you have evidence IPSOS has poor methodologies you should bring these up, with them and then news outlets. Otherwise this seems like an emotional outburst.
The `Bgi Shift`was a good concept but they never understood that Conservatives in Canada are the rebond friend of a rebound boyfriend. Majorities happen when we get tired of constant minority parliament votes, no one reallly likes them outside Alberta and parts of Saskitoba.
That`s why it`s sooo important for them to just focus on QCéONéMaritimes. Alberta and Prairies are irrelevant to the chase, really.
I defend polling as a science and the work therein, he’s offering punditry and I attack bad punditry all the time
Frankly, the big shift was obviously very wrong the day it came out. I’m surprised it got published. Just made no sense. It’s like they didn’t know the population size of the western provinces vs. Ontario and Quebec. It’s a bizarre book. I read it and the commentary around it and felt like I was taking crazy pills.
With these polling numbers - imagine the possibilities. A Liberal win for a 4th term would give them the power to pass Bill C-63 The Online Harms Act, basically giving them the power to remove opposition speech. “At its core, Bill C-63 hands the federal government sweeping powers to police digital speech. It creates a Digital Safety Commission, an unelected bureaucratic authority empowered to monitor, investigate, and punish online platforms and individuals for content deemed "harmful."
With opposition mostly shut down - the uninterrupted Liberal majority through 2050 is very much possible.
Are you lost?