Where is the pressure to make a prediction, especially with so much campaign left? I know the dynamics look stable to nearly permanent, but things can happen. We’ve seen it happen before. What’s the point of a prediction? It doesn’t really add value. People do predictions due to some combination (or not) of personal egotism and/or pressure from idiots. Everyone can make a prediction. They are a dime a dozen. Not everyone can provide valuable insights and perspective. And that’s what people come here for. I would hope.
And, while you kinda lost me in 2024 and early 2025 for various reasons, I stuck around… and I’m appreciating the election commentary. Some very good pieces this campaign!
Having said that, my own model has the libs in the mid-high 170s. The Cons and the NDP and the BQ haven’t been putting up much of a fight yet. The Libs haven’t been putting on a stellar campaign either, despite their momentum and gains entirely thanks to carney’s credentials and fit for the moment. But the cons and the NDP and the bloc will increase their intensity soon, even if only to protect their base and their safe seats. And that will see the race tighten and the liberal seat margins erode. And mid-170s isn’t a lot of elbow room.
The key for the libs is that they’ll need to convince NDP and bq voters that they are in for a real narrow fight to get majority who ch bus necessary to defend against trump and his tariffs and threats to our existence. They need to really eat the NDP and a lot of the bq. And I think they can do it. But things will get tough and tight before we can breathe a sigh of relief.
❤️🇨🇦Strong! Trying to turn Calgary Confederation red! Toss up but working on the NDP voters to make a rational choice.
Corey Hogan’s a good candidate for that riding!
Where is the pressure to make a prediction, especially with so much campaign left? I know the dynamics look stable to nearly permanent, but things can happen. We’ve seen it happen before. What’s the point of a prediction? It doesn’t really add value. People do predictions due to some combination (or not) of personal egotism and/or pressure from idiots. Everyone can make a prediction. They are a dime a dozen. Not everyone can provide valuable insights and perspective. And that’s what people come here for. I would hope.
And, while you kinda lost me in 2024 and early 2025 for various reasons, I stuck around… and I’m appreciating the election commentary. Some very good pieces this campaign!
Having said that, my own model has the libs in the mid-high 170s. The Cons and the NDP and the BQ haven’t been putting up much of a fight yet. The Libs haven’t been putting on a stellar campaign either, despite their momentum and gains entirely thanks to carney’s credentials and fit for the moment. But the cons and the NDP and the bloc will increase their intensity soon, even if only to protect their base and their safe seats. And that will see the race tighten and the liberal seat margins erode. And mid-170s isn’t a lot of elbow room.
The key for the libs is that they’ll need to convince NDP and bq voters that they are in for a real narrow fight to get majority who ch bus necessary to defend against trump and his tariffs and threats to our existence. They need to really eat the NDP and a lot of the bq. And I think they can do it. But things will get tough and tight before we can breathe a sigh of relief.
Keep Calm and Carney On!
Knocking on doors today in Central Nova—the polls are not wrong at least in this riding.
We all miss him and I really love how deftly you included him in this article.
You’re a dirty commie; but I do love your political analysis.