I don't know anything about Canada so I'm a bit lost reading the geographic breakdown in this article; a high level summary of what you expect the bias of the median seat to be relative to the popular vote and why would be very helpful. I'm also curious how much of your disagreement with eg 338canada is on what the popular vote will be, and how much of your disagreement is on how the popular vote translates to seat numbers.
Evan, how does your seat model differ from Fournier's or Grenier's though? Is it different from when you worked for Lean Tossup? What is different about Too Close to Call? I remember all the major projectors having underestimated the Liberal # in 2019 but that might have been due to strategic voting breaking at the last minute?
I know you wrote about the soft NDPs potentially breaking for the Liberals out of fear of a Conservative government, but Fournier says voters are not convinced that O'Toole could win, so I'm guessing you figure that may change if/once more attention is focused on the present state of the campaign? Nanos and Mainstreet seem to indicate Quebec is shifting Liberal after the TVA debate but what if Leger says something different this week? What if the English debate doesn't go well for Trudeau or works out to a draw?
Also, isn't the US different from Canada in that Biden last time was running against Trump, while O'Toole has managed a sleight of hand to convince voters he's "moderate"? I thought this election was turning on an (unexpected) nationwide abject hatred of and rebellion against Trudeau?
I really hope you're right because even if people don't like Trudeau anymore it would be a tragedy to lose daycare and open the door to abortion restrictions. There's too much America in Canada as it is.
I don't know anything about Canada so I'm a bit lost reading the geographic breakdown in this article; a high level summary of what you expect the bias of the median seat to be relative to the popular vote and why would be very helpful. I'm also curious how much of your disagreement with eg 338canada is on what the popular vote will be, and how much of your disagreement is on how the popular vote translates to seat numbers.
Evan, how does your seat model differ from Fournier's or Grenier's though? Is it different from when you worked for Lean Tossup? What is different about Too Close to Call? I remember all the major projectors having underestimated the Liberal # in 2019 but that might have been due to strategic voting breaking at the last minute?
I know you wrote about the soft NDPs potentially breaking for the Liberals out of fear of a Conservative government, but Fournier says voters are not convinced that O'Toole could win, so I'm guessing you figure that may change if/once more attention is focused on the present state of the campaign? Nanos and Mainstreet seem to indicate Quebec is shifting Liberal after the TVA debate but what if Leger says something different this week? What if the English debate doesn't go well for Trudeau or works out to a draw?
Also, isn't the US different from Canada in that Biden last time was running against Trump, while O'Toole has managed a sleight of hand to convince voters he's "moderate"? I thought this election was turning on an (unexpected) nationwide abject hatred of and rebellion against Trudeau?
I really hope you're right because even if people don't like Trudeau anymore it would be a tragedy to lose daycare and open the door to abortion restrictions. There's too much America in Canada as it is.