OK, will you have a week 2 writeup? Because it's still not going well, and now the Liberals are down from their 2019 results according to Fournier's website, which also has another EKOS poll that includes a lead in Ontario (that no one else has yet, but still). Lean Tossup meanwhile, hasn't been updated since the 18th. I dunno but I feel like this is going to be a bad shot call. I hope to be proven wrong, but as the days go on it seems a lot less likely. :(
Also Evan, Lean Tossup's webpage proper hasn't been updated since July. Now they work with iPolitics and Mainstreet Research, though as of right now this morning they still have the Liberals + NDP combined for the ~180s range. You're correct about 338 and Fournier's numbers though. But with new polls that may change, so I'm still not sure how you can be so certain about this shot call right now. I do hope you're still correct when the dust settles on September 20th.
OK, but what if there are other polls that show what EKOS is showing and this is a premature shot call? What are you seeing that others are not? Some folks on Reddit have said that Conservatives poll better on weekends, is this true?
OK, will you have a week 2 writeup? Because it's still not going well, and now the Liberals are down from their 2019 results according to Fournier's website, which also has another EKOS poll that includes a lead in Ontario (that no one else has yet, but still). Lean Tossup meanwhile, hasn't been updated since the 18th. I dunno but I feel like this is going to be a bad shot call. I hope to be proven wrong, but as the days go on it seems a lot less likely. :(
Also Evan, Lean Tossup's webpage proper hasn't been updated since July. Now they work with iPolitics and Mainstreet Research, though as of right now this morning they still have the Liberals + NDP combined for the ~180s range. You're correct about 338 and Fournier's numbers though. But with new polls that may change, so I'm still not sure how you can be so certain about this shot call right now. I do hope you're still correct when the dust settles on September 20th.
OK scratch that, I just noticed the model dates' update was August 18. It was just their website redesign that's from July.
Recent polls from other polling agencies all show a tight race, no? Lib leading by around 1 point or so.
I think he's referring to seat distribution.
OK, but what if there are other polls that show what EKOS is showing and this is a premature shot call? What are you seeing that others are not? Some folks on Reddit have said that Conservatives poll better on weekends, is this true?