This was the biggest waste of time I have ever experienced, and my gay ass used to try and date women despite the fact I knew I was gay the whole time.
There’s two different conversations about any debate - who won the debate, and will the person who won the debate get a bump from it - and the answers aren[t always the same. I actually think O’Toole won the debate, mostly because he avoided any damage (Jagmeet, maybe hitting him would have helped your vision? I don’t know, I’m just the asshole who’s voting for you who hated your performance) - his performance was mediocre, but it was the best of a fairly mediocre night. He didn’t get hit too badly on vaccines or the majority of his caucus voting against the conversion therapy ban, and that’s a good sign for him, I guess.
I don’t think Trudeau had a bad night, but it’s clear he didn’t have a bad night - he took some damage, but he didn’t buckle, and the fact that he was the focus of the debate helps him look Prime Ministerial. It wasn’t a good night, but my contention this whole time has been that Trudeau is favoured, and when you’re winning, not losing is a victory. Jagmeet was fucking trash, though, and as someone who is voting for him, he was useless tonight - landing lame attacks on the incumbent without doing any damage on him, and by avoiding O’Toole, he helps the right. What a useless performance. (Also, don’t waste my time on the other two, fucking useless performance from Paul, and Blanchet is useless in an English debate.)
The question of whether or not this changes anything is harder, but I cannot imagine anyone is going to be sold by this nonsense. It was crap, and a complete waste of time (well, no, cause I’m drunk as hell as I type this, so that was fun), and it won’t save O’Toole, so in that sense he lost. I mean, I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw an NDP decline in the next few days, but whether that’s just the usual trajectory of the NDP - falling as we get closer to election day and the choice clarifies between the Cons and a mediocre, flawed Liberal government. If O’Toole gets a meaningful bump I’ll be surprised, but the thing is, his choice - to use the debate to stay moderate for the middle - won’t help win back the bleeding on his right flank. He probably made the right choice, but it’s worth noting that that’s the choice he made.
I still stand by the idea that the Tories have no path to win, and this debate was a massive waste of everyone’s time. Honestly, everyone should have just watched the tennis, where we actually saw some Canadian excellence. The debate was a massive waste of everyone’s time, and despite O’Toole “winning”, it won’t provide the spark needed to change the fact Trudeau will win again.
Also, while I’m here - I’m aware Insights West has had a good record of polling BC, but anyone pretending a poll where the Liberals get 19% in BC is credible is believing the triumph of hope over good logic. Pollsters’ past track records can mean something, but also, 2020 saw R-leaning pollsters with good track records showing competitive races in a suite of states, including Missouri. They were entirely wrong. The poll doesn’t pass a basic smell test.
Thank you for your columns! As a green voter who really doesn't want the Tories in charge of our climate profile (or anything tbh) it's been reassuring to see you keep saying Trudeau can still win.
My hope is that almost nobody watched this Jerry Springer "debate" because of all the sports outings on TV tonight. Tennis, the Jays, and the NFL kickoff with Brady and Gronk. I kid, but the English debates are an unmitigated nuclear dumpster fire, and the fact that they had a *pollster* from one of those "R-leaning firms" (or C-leaning, because this is Canada) as the (obnoxious) moderator should be disqualifying. Seriously, how would cons feel if Anderson or Maggi or Graves were the moderator? Why is it OK to stack the deck? How does this serve democracy or help voters make informed decisions? Even Chris Wallace was better moderating the Trump vs. Biden debate,and he's from Fox News! If Trudeau does actually manage to eke out a win, who will the corrupt "consortium" put up as moderator next time? Nick Kouvalis on a bender???