Every pollster right now has the Conservatives in, well, the outhouse -- Nanos, Abacus, Mainstreet, EKOS, Ipsos, Innovative (which did a "deep dive" that was recently featured in Maclean's) -- all of them are showing a Liberal majority and a Conservative blowout, save for one: Léger. They've had the Liberals neck-and-neck for the better part of a year and have barely budged one bit. Why are they the lone contrarian holdout? Are they overcorrecting for the 45%+ they had the Liberals at during the peak of the pandemic? I know they tend to be sympathetic to the Bloc but they've produced outliers so frequently as of late that it almost seems like whoever is running the panel is asleep at the switches.
All other firms show the Conservatives facing annihilation and the Liberals fully recovered from the dip during the WeGhazi brouhaha (you might want to rethink your criticism of Trudeau on that, as the ethics commish cleared him of wrongdoing). Only Léger seems to have them "stuck" and I keep wondering why that is? Are they wonky outside the writ period and then like Forum, release a proper "finale" closest to the actual results, the day before the election?
Many people in the WWC areas in Canada are in the resource industries. Go it alone, cut Canada off from the world, intensely restrictive insular societies don't mix well with export-heavy primary resource industries, which are absolutely dependent on international trade. It's why Montana isn't as pro-Trump as say, Idaho. Running up the score as much isn't possible.. there simply isn't as much Kentucky or Tennessee in Canada, relatively speaking.
Arguably, he's trying to have the worst of both worlds: Boris' Brexiteers are part of it, but really what the CPC have become is a copycat of the absolute off-the-rails psychotic authoritarianism that is the GOP. Recall that a poll conducted just this past winter mere weeks before the 1/6 insurrection had some 40% of Canadian Tories supporting Trump (or admitting to it). UK is undergoing an incredible and disturbing wave of transphobia right now, but nobody does culture war fanaticism like the party of Fox, 4chan and Trump.
Max Fawcett has a great column today in the National Observer about how their entire core identity is little more than a deep, abiding, *personal* hatred of Justin Trudeau that goes beyond policy and extends into the realm of QAnon conspiracy theory (Castro birtherism, rumours about his marriage, endless Benghazi investigations into supposed "Liberal corruption"). They've become in hock to their Extremely Online tin foil base that sincerely believes he is a mole for the Chinese government, he ordered a hit on the Shermans, he operates the Liberal party like NXIVM, he had an affair with a 15-year-old student and offed his brother to shut him up about it, Sophie caught him in bed with Ben Mulroney and is divorcing him for Idris Elba, there's a secret dungeon under Harrington Lake, etc. etc. etc.
It's that Trudeau derangement, Fawcett says, that might be the biggest (or one of the biggest) reasons why they are where they are right now, and he's probably right. Obama and Hillary derangement did work for Trump, but Trudeau derangement has backfired massively for the Canadian Republican American Party.
Every pollster right now has the Conservatives in, well, the outhouse -- Nanos, Abacus, Mainstreet, EKOS, Ipsos, Innovative (which did a "deep dive" that was recently featured in Maclean's) -- all of them are showing a Liberal majority and a Conservative blowout, save for one: Léger. They've had the Liberals neck-and-neck for the better part of a year and have barely budged one bit. Why are they the lone contrarian holdout? Are they overcorrecting for the 45%+ they had the Liberals at during the peak of the pandemic? I know they tend to be sympathetic to the Bloc but they've produced outliers so frequently as of late that it almost seems like whoever is running the panel is asleep at the switches.
All other firms show the Conservatives facing annihilation and the Liberals fully recovered from the dip during the WeGhazi brouhaha (you might want to rethink your criticism of Trudeau on that, as the ethics commish cleared him of wrongdoing). Only Léger seems to have them "stuck" and I keep wondering why that is? Are they wonky outside the writ period and then like Forum, release a proper "finale" closest to the actual results, the day before the election?
Many people in the WWC areas in Canada are in the resource industries. Go it alone, cut Canada off from the world, intensely restrictive insular societies don't mix well with export-heavy primary resource industries, which are absolutely dependent on international trade. It's why Montana isn't as pro-Trump as say, Idaho. Running up the score as much isn't possible.. there simply isn't as much Kentucky or Tennessee in Canada, relatively speaking.
Arguably, he's trying to have the worst of both worlds: Boris' Brexiteers are part of it, but really what the CPC have become is a copycat of the absolute off-the-rails psychotic authoritarianism that is the GOP. Recall that a poll conducted just this past winter mere weeks before the 1/6 insurrection had some 40% of Canadian Tories supporting Trump (or admitting to it). UK is undergoing an incredible and disturbing wave of transphobia right now, but nobody does culture war fanaticism like the party of Fox, 4chan and Trump.
Max Fawcett has a great column today in the National Observer about how their entire core identity is little more than a deep, abiding, *personal* hatred of Justin Trudeau that goes beyond policy and extends into the realm of QAnon conspiracy theory (Castro birtherism, rumours about his marriage, endless Benghazi investigations into supposed "Liberal corruption"). They've become in hock to their Extremely Online tin foil base that sincerely believes he is a mole for the Chinese government, he ordered a hit on the Shermans, he operates the Liberal party like NXIVM, he had an affair with a 15-year-old student and offed his brother to shut him up about it, Sophie caught him in bed with Ben Mulroney and is divorcing him for Idris Elba, there's a secret dungeon under Harrington Lake, etc. etc. etc.
It's that Trudeau derangement, Fawcett says, that might be the biggest (or one of the biggest) reasons why they are where they are right now, and he's probably right. Obama and Hillary derangement did work for Trump, but Trudeau derangement has backfired massively for the Canadian Republican American Party.