I'm actually surprised to hear you didn't see the Clinton loss. I did see it, and predicted it, but my reasons were "big picture" as opposed to the numbers that real predictors use, so of course everyone "poo-poo'd" me and told me I was wrong.
I could see that it was all about populism - populism was on the rise and Clinton was both THE ultimate insider candidate and had been around long enough to have literal generations raised to hate her (think of the kids of the "f*k Trudeau" idiots - they are 100% being indoctrinated and will be unmovable when they are voting age). She was just the worst candidate they could have run in a populist election.
Of course we agree that this same anger is being exploited by Poilievre, and that anger combined with actual misinformation will drive people to polls moreso than the most sterling LPC record will. In this scenario as well, we can see Trudeau as more a "Clinton" - very qualified but perceived as "establishment" and the victim of a LOT of lies and misinformation. I'm not sure if we will be able to avoid the fate of the US based on that. Another few years of CPC & clickbait driven media harping on about fake ethics scandals + amplifying every word into a misstep + Facebook meme farm "dictator" propaganda going unchecked may just bear some real fruit in 2025.
Of course Clinton's loss was also partly Clinton's fault, for also taking her win for granted, for not picking up the populism (Heath care will never ever come to pass) and for not campaigning in states she lost - so imo if LPC can avoid those pitfalls I'll feel more comfortable.
I'm actually surprised to hear you didn't see the Clinton loss. I did see it, and predicted it, but my reasons were "big picture" as opposed to the numbers that real predictors use, so of course everyone "poo-poo'd" me and told me I was wrong.
I could see that it was all about populism - populism was on the rise and Clinton was both THE ultimate insider candidate and had been around long enough to have literal generations raised to hate her (think of the kids of the "f*k Trudeau" idiots - they are 100% being indoctrinated and will be unmovable when they are voting age). She was just the worst candidate they could have run in a populist election.
Of course we agree that this same anger is being exploited by Poilievre, and that anger combined with actual misinformation will drive people to polls moreso than the most sterling LPC record will. In this scenario as well, we can see Trudeau as more a "Clinton" - very qualified but perceived as "establishment" and the victim of a LOT of lies and misinformation. I'm not sure if we will be able to avoid the fate of the US based on that. Another few years of CPC & clickbait driven media harping on about fake ethics scandals + amplifying every word into a misstep + Facebook meme farm "dictator" propaganda going unchecked may just bear some real fruit in 2025.
Of course Clinton's loss was also partly Clinton's fault, for also taking her win for granted, for not picking up the populism (Heath care will never ever come to pass) and for not campaigning in states she lost - so imo if LPC can avoid those pitfalls I'll feel more comfortable.