I tend to think your analysis is too mechanistic ie- Poilievre takes fringe (or minority) positions on some issues therefore he will lose. The Federal Liberal Party under Trudeau is objectively unpopular. In fact the least popular party in the history of Canada to form government (33%ish). Trudeau has worn out his welcome and should be easily beatable in the next election. An aggressive anti-Lib posture, combined with a confident demeanor, could go a long way to rallying Canadians. It's obviously a long way away from the next election, but at this point, I would still bet on Poilievre.
According to an Angus Reid poll, supporters of Bernier are saying they'd vote for Poilievre. Would those votes give Poilievre actual seats or are they still too small to make a difference. (Pretty sure that's the basis for PP using the Orban/Bolsonaro/Trump approach. He wants to win over the far right votes.
I tend to think your analysis is too mechanistic ie- Poilievre takes fringe (or minority) positions on some issues therefore he will lose. The Federal Liberal Party under Trudeau is objectively unpopular. In fact the least popular party in the history of Canada to form government (33%ish). Trudeau has worn out his welcome and should be easily beatable in the next election. An aggressive anti-Lib posture, combined with a confident demeanor, could go a long way to rallying Canadians. It's obviously a long way away from the next election, but at this point, I would still bet on Poilievre.
According to an Angus Reid poll, supporters of Bernier are saying they'd vote for Poilievre. Would those votes give Poilievre actual seats or are they still too small to make a difference. (Pretty sure that's the basis for PP using the Orban/Bolsonaro/Trump approach. He wants to win over the far right votes.