I think it will come down to the Bloc more than the NDP. Singh is making pie-in-the-sky promises that will need to be costed under the scrutiny of a campaign. He's already lost two big ones now that the Liberals have childcare rolling (starting in B.C. at that), and have gotten started on pharmacare out in P.E.I. So all he has really is to argue that the Liberals wouldn't have done it without NDP pressure, or that Trudeau can't be trusted to close the deal, which is a questionable gambit now that provinces have come on board (jurisdiction being an infamously inconvenient sticking point the NDP doesn't like to address).
I suppose he could argue, as he's been doing all week, that Trudeau called a "selfish" election that saw progressive legislation die in the Senate, but polls show nobody is really paying much heed to that argument. In terms of policy, he doesn't really have anything new on offer, if the Liberals are just going to bring those bills back after the election and he's already indicated support for everything they do, which therefore makes an NDP vote pointless if it's just a vote for a Liberal party that can actually govern. The Liberals, meanwhile, will be able to argue that the NDP had their own "selfish" role to play in bringing down childcare in 2006, which is another sore spot for many NDP'ers.
With the Bloc it comes down to a similar question as Singh's: would the Liberals have done as much for Quebec without the Bloc getting after them to do it. From people I've spoken with, the Bloc is mainly a protest vote against the federal parties when relations are not good with QC. Which they are, even despite the occasional grumble about Mary Simon's language abilities. Trudeau lost out to Blanchet in '19 when he mistakenly came out strongly against Bill 21. He's learned from that now and has approached detente with Legault on a number of other matters. Plus Blanchet has his own rumblings of dissension within the party, and his own... skeletons in Eric Lapointe's closet, so whether or not any of that becomes a factor remains to be seen.
The bigger question I think is whether the Liberals will able to convert "leaners" to strategic voting with the threat of a Conservative government all but neutered. They'll have to make an argument for a "strong, stable majority" but without using Harper's words. They already have been testing that out with arguments from "obstruction" in Parliament. It will be interesting to see what they do come up with and how it's framed as the campaign rolls on. Canadians seem to like to "pick a winner" as e-day closes in, and the pandemic could see mail-in voting early on from people who've already made their decision, even before the debates or platforms or anything else. If that ends up being the case, like it was for all the provincial minority governments who upgrade to majorities (cough -- John Horgan -- cough), and the unique circumstances of this election indicate polls at the start of the writ drop being the eventual outcome more or less, Trudeau II might very well get his majority back just like his papa in 1974.
"In reality, they sprinted right, even as the nation moved right." I believe you meant to say "sprinted left". Otherwise good analysis!
I think it will come down to the Bloc more than the NDP. Singh is making pie-in-the-sky promises that will need to be costed under the scrutiny of a campaign. He's already lost two big ones now that the Liberals have childcare rolling (starting in B.C. at that), and have gotten started on pharmacare out in P.E.I. So all he has really is to argue that the Liberals wouldn't have done it without NDP pressure, or that Trudeau can't be trusted to close the deal, which is a questionable gambit now that provinces have come on board (jurisdiction being an infamously inconvenient sticking point the NDP doesn't like to address).
I suppose he could argue, as he's been doing all week, that Trudeau called a "selfish" election that saw progressive legislation die in the Senate, but polls show nobody is really paying much heed to that argument. In terms of policy, he doesn't really have anything new on offer, if the Liberals are just going to bring those bills back after the election and he's already indicated support for everything they do, which therefore makes an NDP vote pointless if it's just a vote for a Liberal party that can actually govern. The Liberals, meanwhile, will be able to argue that the NDP had their own "selfish" role to play in bringing down childcare in 2006, which is another sore spot for many NDP'ers.
With the Bloc it comes down to a similar question as Singh's: would the Liberals have done as much for Quebec without the Bloc getting after them to do it. From people I've spoken with, the Bloc is mainly a protest vote against the federal parties when relations are not good with QC. Which they are, even despite the occasional grumble about Mary Simon's language abilities. Trudeau lost out to Blanchet in '19 when he mistakenly came out strongly against Bill 21. He's learned from that now and has approached detente with Legault on a number of other matters. Plus Blanchet has his own rumblings of dissension within the party, and his own... skeletons in Eric Lapointe's closet, so whether or not any of that becomes a factor remains to be seen.
The bigger question I think is whether the Liberals will able to convert "leaners" to strategic voting with the threat of a Conservative government all but neutered. They'll have to make an argument for a "strong, stable majority" but without using Harper's words. They already have been testing that out with arguments from "obstruction" in Parliament. It will be interesting to see what they do come up with and how it's framed as the campaign rolls on. Canadians seem to like to "pick a winner" as e-day closes in, and the pandemic could see mail-in voting early on from people who've already made their decision, even before the debates or platforms or anything else. If that ends up being the case, like it was for all the provincial minority governments who upgrade to majorities (cough -- John Horgan -- cough), and the unique circumstances of this election indicate polls at the start of the writ drop being the eventual outcome more or less, Trudeau II might very well get his majority back just like his papa in 1974.